Paddy Power reconciles 2008 McCain/Obama futures

[InTheHole]

According to Reuters this Irish maker has determined that Obama is our next President. How will they get back that money (more than 1mil euros) if they're wrong?

[donjuan]

They are idiots if that is true.

[AgainstAllOdds]

I thought Paddy Power was a poker site in the UK? Didnt know they were also a book.

[Ganchrow]

AP story link

I can only assume that this is some sort of a publicity stunt.

[Justin7]

Interesting.

Will there be a significant terrorist event in the two weeks before the election?
Yes +200
No -220

[tacomax]

They are idiots if that is true.

All makes for good publicity - they've been doing this type of stuff for years and they still do it even when they've made the wrong call in the past.

[donjuan]

I understand it is a publicity stunt but it allows people to take shots at them in the future in addition to the TVM and EV considerations.

[Justin7]

I understand it is a publicity stunt but it allows people to take shots at them in the future in addition to the TVM and EV considerations.

Maybe we should all post up there huh?

Genius marketing. They gave up maybe $250k in equity. It's just an expensive ad.

[durito]

Interesting.

Will there be a significant terrorist event in the two weeks before the election?
Yes +200
No -220

Will there be an Osama Bin Laden video/audio appearance?

Yes -200
No +180

[donjuan]

Maybe we should all post up there huh?

Genius marketing. They gave up maybe $250k in equity. It's just an expensive ad.

They do have some interesting marketing tactics, although I highly doubt they want you to post up Justin. At the Rugby World Cup last year, they sponsored the Tongan team and in return the Tongan team dyed their hear green and one of their players Epi Taione legally changed his name to Paddy Power.

[InTheHole]

I can't post up because they do not accept US players. Plus I can't either way because Online Gambling is illegal in the "Land of the Free".

[Ganchrow]

I understand it is a publicity stunt but it allows people to take shots at them in the future in addition to the TVM and EV considerations.

I'd largely discount the implict cost inherent in allowing others to take shots in the future insofar as they posses the optionality and not the bettors.

If they're only paying out €1MM and if they're judging fair value on Obama at 84.39% (which, FWIW, I strongly believe to be underpriced), then they're only giving up about €156K in equity, plus maybe €2-3K more in TVM. So we're looking at a slightly less than €160K advertising campaign.

Is it worth it? Well, as Reuters and AP have both picked up the story I'd say it's quite possible. It's a marketing cost like any other. At the very least, I'd don't think it's a transparently bad move on the part of PP.

[skrtelfan]

They've done that in soccer before. I know last year in the English league they paid on "Derby to be relegated" only a few months into the season, and they've paid out the league winner well in advance before too.

[fixxer]

Paddy is known for having this kind of promotions...and they often pay a LOT...I often play there, they pay out to moneybookers usually in less than 1 hour

...for example on last year's Champions League (soccer) final, they offered to pay back all losing single bets on this event, if C. Ronaldo scores...he did, not long after the match started

[JoshW]

Expensive publicity stunt, but it made most major media outlets, so maybe it was worth it to them.