NBA Futures Betting: Boston Celtics No. 1 in East
NBA Futures Betting: Boston Celtics No. 1 in East
On the heels of their 17th NBA Championship, the Boston Celtics return this season looking for No. 18 as favorites to win it all again (+385) and leading the tote board for the Eastern Conference as well at +145. Staying healthy will be a key factor for their Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce while Cleveland's LeBron James looks for his first MVP award and a Central Division title.
Welcome to the 2008-09 NBA season, where East meets West and things will never be the same again.
These past 16 months have brought massive change to the Eastern Conference. Shaquille O’Neal and Jason Kidd are gone; Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Shawn Marion and Elton Brand are in. The East also added strong draft picks like Al Horford and Rodney Stuckey in 2007, plus Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley in 2008.
The widely panned Isiah Thomas regime ended in New York, with the Knicks bringing respected coach Mike D’Antoni over from Phoenix. The Raptors and Pacers made a big trade that should improve both clubs. And LeBron James might finally have enough talent around him for the Cavaliers to make the leap.
There’s a lot of guesswork for handicappers at this time of year. If you want to be successful against the betting odds, those guesses need to be as educated as possible. So here are my two cents (better make that in Euros) about who will come out ahead in the Eastern divisional races.
Atlantic: Boston Celtics
It’s not much of a stretch to pick the defending NBA champions; Boston (66-16 SU, 52-28-2 ATS last year) made the most aggressive moves of the 2007 offseason, upset the Los Angeles Lakers in the finals (after having been the favorites most of the season), and continued to fine-tune the roster this summer. The Celtics are 2-7 favorites to win the Atlantic and deservedly so.
Both the Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors made aggressive moves in the offseason and deserve consideration as value picks at 11-2. There’s still a considerable gap in talent between them and the Celtics, at least on paper. A key injury or two could derail the aging Celtics core, but Elton Brand and Jermaine O’Neal aren’t perfect specimens of health themselves. Boston also has an army of young, capable players like Leon Powe (20.9 PER) and Glen “Big Baby” Davis (12 points, eight boards per 36 minutes) to come off the bench and keep the Big Three relatively fresh.
Central: Cleveland Cavaliers
This is my outlier pick of the three divisions. The Detroit Pistons (59-23 SU, 45-36-1 ATS) are the favorites at 2-3, but I’ve been suitably impressed with the moves Cleveland’s Danny Ferry made at the trading deadline and during the offseason. Ferry’s decision to ship Larry Hughes to Chicago and surround LeBron James with more complementary guards like Mo Williams (17.0 PER) and Daniel Gibson (44 percent from long range) may have saved the franchise.
The preseason buzz is on James to win the MVP this year and for the Cavaliers to make some serious noise in the playoffs. They’ve risen from 15-1 at the open of the championship futures market to 12-1. Cleveland is at the very least a compelling value pick at 11-5 to win the Central; the Pistons have an aging starting rotation and a rookie coach in Michael Curry. Their rebuilding program will happen sooner than they think.
Southeast: Orlando Magic
This is virtually the same Magic team that went 52-30 (50-29-3 ATS) last year and cruised to the Southeast title. That’s not necessarily a good thing. Orlando doesn’t appear to have solved its deficiencies in the backcourt, losing Maurice Evans (14.0 PER in Orlando) and adding Golden State cast-off Mickael Pietrus, who will be asked to do his best Bruce Bowen imitation for the Magic.
Orlando is a 5-7 favorite in the Southeast almost by default. The rebuilding Miami Heat are actually the second favorites at 9-5 after finishing last in the NBA at 15-67 (35-46-1 ATS). It’s tempting to think of Miami enjoying an instant turnaround after the brilliant Marion-O’Neal deal and drafting Beasley second overall. Adding a healthy (we hope) Dwyane Wade gives the Heat a potential Big Three. But they’ll be joined by Marcus Banks at the 1 and Udonis Haslem at the 5, the two most important positions on the court from a talent premium perspective. It’s more likely Miami will trade Marion and reinvest in more draft picks and cap space.
On the heels of their 17th NBA Championship, the Boston Celtics return this season looking for No. 18 as favorites to win it all again (+385) and leading the tote board for the Eastern Conference as well at +145. Staying healthy will be a key factor for their Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce while Cleveland's LeBron James looks for his first MVP award and a Central Division title.
Welcome to the 2008-09 NBA season, where East meets West and things will never be the same again.
These past 16 months have brought massive change to the Eastern Conference. Shaquille O’Neal and Jason Kidd are gone; Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Shawn Marion and Elton Brand are in. The East also added strong draft picks like Al Horford and Rodney Stuckey in 2007, plus Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley in 2008.
The widely panned Isiah Thomas regime ended in New York, with the Knicks bringing respected coach Mike D’Antoni over from Phoenix. The Raptors and Pacers made a big trade that should improve both clubs. And LeBron James might finally have enough talent around him for the Cavaliers to make the leap.
There’s a lot of guesswork for handicappers at this time of year. If you want to be successful against the betting odds, those guesses need to be as educated as possible. So here are my two cents (better make that in Euros) about who will come out ahead in the Eastern divisional races.
Atlantic: Boston Celtics
It’s not much of a stretch to pick the defending NBA champions; Boston (66-16 SU, 52-28-2 ATS last year) made the most aggressive moves of the 2007 offseason, upset the Los Angeles Lakers in the finals (after having been the favorites most of the season), and continued to fine-tune the roster this summer. The Celtics are 2-7 favorites to win the Atlantic and deservedly so.
Both the Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors made aggressive moves in the offseason and deserve consideration as value picks at 11-2. There’s still a considerable gap in talent between them and the Celtics, at least on paper. A key injury or two could derail the aging Celtics core, but Elton Brand and Jermaine O’Neal aren’t perfect specimens of health themselves. Boston also has an army of young, capable players like Leon Powe (20.9 PER) and Glen “Big Baby” Davis (12 points, eight boards per 36 minutes) to come off the bench and keep the Big Three relatively fresh.
Central: Cleveland Cavaliers
This is my outlier pick of the three divisions. The Detroit Pistons (59-23 SU, 45-36-1 ATS) are the favorites at 2-3, but I’ve been suitably impressed with the moves Cleveland’s Danny Ferry made at the trading deadline and during the offseason. Ferry’s decision to ship Larry Hughes to Chicago and surround LeBron James with more complementary guards like Mo Williams (17.0 PER) and Daniel Gibson (44 percent from long range) may have saved the franchise.
The preseason buzz is on James to win the MVP this year and for the Cavaliers to make some serious noise in the playoffs. They’ve risen from 15-1 at the open of the championship futures market to 12-1. Cleveland is at the very least a compelling value pick at 11-5 to win the Central; the Pistons have an aging starting rotation and a rookie coach in Michael Curry. Their rebuilding program will happen sooner than they think.
Southeast: Orlando Magic
This is virtually the same Magic team that went 52-30 (50-29-3 ATS) last year and cruised to the Southeast title. That’s not necessarily a good thing. Orlando doesn’t appear to have solved its deficiencies in the backcourt, losing Maurice Evans (14.0 PER in Orlando) and adding Golden State cast-off Mickael Pietrus, who will be asked to do his best Bruce Bowen imitation for the Magic.
Orlando is a 5-7 favorite in the Southeast almost by default. The rebuilding Miami Heat are actually the second favorites at 9-5 after finishing last in the NBA at 15-67 (35-46-1 ATS). It’s tempting to think of Miami enjoying an instant turnaround after the brilliant Marion-O’Neal deal and drafting Beasley second overall. Adding a healthy (we hope) Dwyane Wade gives the Heat a potential Big Three. But they’ll be joined by Marcus Banks at the 1 and Udonis Haslem at the 5, the two most important positions on the court from a talent premium perspective. It’s more likely Miami will trade Marion and reinvest in more draft picks and cap space.