True Line vs. Fair Line

[SlickFazzer]

True Line Splits the Result

Fair Line Splits the Action

Understand it.

[lakerboy]

Slicker back with a bang.

[SlickFazzer]

Spotting differences in the two equals value.

[SlickFazzer]

Public perception has large influence on fair line.

[wantitall4moi]

Public perception has large influence on fair line.

Huh?

This is how it works, anyone with a brain makes up their own line. That is their 'true' line. it is what they think the line shouldbe according tp their reasoning. If the person doing it is any good at all at sportsbetting or knows sports at all it really shouldnt be close to any line offered by a book. It should be way off on both sides. The trick is to then factor in which side has the best possibility of winning. Which in most cases will be self explanatory. But some guys might give the Yankees a -240 edge over a random team, the line is then posted at -160. Therefore the bet is obviously on the Yankees. BUT if the line actually starts moving the other way then you wait for it to bottom out and then bet the Yankees. And if youre any good you will win a lot more than you lose.

"fair line' is just a made up word. fair is just a subjective term, as illustrated above, if you like yankees -240 and theyre listed -160 then why isnt -160 fair? Of course it is, but if they move to -148 then that is just a better price, it really cant be more 'fair.

Getting a 'fair' line would be working with a broker to get a number that is close to something somewhere else and getting them to take your action for it. So you see values that run the gamete of -120 to -127 and +110 to +117. You might ask a broker to give you -119 or -118 and try and convince him that is 'fair' because of how he determines his vig. You might even get him to give you a (theoretical) no vig price of -115, this will be a lot easier if he is buried the other way even at a number that is 'worse' than you are getting, because even if he is hammered on the plus side he will be willing to hedge off even with no vig if it helps him balance out a little bit.

But the OP isnt correct it is just an over simplification of what people have been told by people who make shit up and think people will believe it. "true" lines can still lose and results arent all that meaningful unless you take the time to look at every game and every result and try and figure out WHY they lost and then how those factors correlate to a spread or odds n the game. Something that is actually pretty impossible to do, but I am sure some people have tried to do it and more than likely complicated it even more.

[rm18]

dont like the wording, i say true line and actual line

[flyingillini]

Slickster, sorry about the money transfer and how long it has taken. I've moved all my finances from the US to Israel now and it's taking longer than expected. Thanks for understanding!

[SlickFazzer]

Good input. I use the two terms to differentiate between what a line should be vs. What the bookmaker uses to try and split the action.

[wantitall4moi]

Good input. I use the two terms to differentiate between what a line should be vs. What the bookmaker uses to try and split the action.

books can really post ANY number and split the action these days because there is so much second guessing and conspiracy that players try to outsmart themselves. But for the most part books pick a number that 'makes sense' and they post it over and over again. So if -3 made sense in game 3 then -3 makes sense now despite it being a very different situation. Although the books did open game three -5 and it moved to -3.5 before it finally closed -4. So maybe -3.5 would have 'made more sense' for an opener tonight since that is where it has gone to as well. But maybe books were factoring in the 'its hard to close out a great team' theory.

But opening lines dont have nearly the effort put into them these days as tey used to, at least in them major professional sports. In college stuff they do but that is mostly because there are a lot of dirty programs who cheat to effect the spread and books have to factor that is as well, especially in NCAA hoops.

EDIT: and my bad it did open -3.5.....

[therushishere]

So what, you just pull back a little bit from the public faves?

[YorkHunt]

"You have a cough? Go home tonight, eat a whole box of Ex-Lax, tomorrow you'll be afraid to cough."

[therushishere]

"You have a cough? Go home tonight, eat a whole box of Ex-Lax, tomorrow you'll be afraid to cough."

???