Why The Giants Win and Cover Tonight

[VegasDave]

I don't need to go over with you how good the Giants are or how bad the Browns are, I'm sure you all know that for yourselves. I will point out, however, that Cleveland's offense has been flat out miserable; and NYG's defense is a tough place to get it going.

As you know, for me, its all about reading in between the lines.

Some of you like the Browns because they are a big home dog on Monday night. Fair enough. I still didn't think this would matter as the Giants have way too much pride to not play their best on Monday Night anyway.

But I think this Sunday's results made this a very decent game to bet on. If there was any doubt in your mind that NYG was going to be sharp...

In the toughest division in the NFC last week, Washington lost to the league's worst team in St. Louis, and Dallas not only looked bad for a 3rd straight game in losing to Arizona, but they also lost Tony Romo for up to a month with an injured finger. Two very dejecting losses. For a division race that looked like it was going to go all the way down to the wire, what a STATEMENT it would be to Washington, Dallas, Philly, and the rest of the league that the Giants are here to stay with a crushing, dominating win over the Browns on Monday Night with the whole country watching.

I think the Giants jump at the chance to sink the dagger into their rivals hearts and bust their morale even more. And skillwise in this game they absolutely have the tools to.

Giants 38 - Browns 10

[freeVICK]

giants seem like square play

[yisman]

^ agree

[pat venditto]

No such thing as a square play.

[element1286]

I agree, should be a big win for the Giants.

[RogueScholar]

Alright, Aristotle, after your Philosophy pick last night, I'm following you here. This goes heavily against my grain too, since as an Eagles fan I can't stand the Giants. But using my head and not my heart, I like your rationale and you seem to make good picks.

[pavyracer]

This is a trap game.

[pat venditto]

pavy trap games are non existent. Anyone who thinks oddsmakers decide the outcome of games doesn't realize how books make money.

[pavyracer]

pavy trap games are non existent. Anyone who thinks oddsmakers decide the outcome of games doesn't realize how books make money.

I was teasing him patty. He said the other night that the Penn St was a trap game. If you know me well enough you should have known that I don't believe in trap games.

[pat venditto]

I was on penn state pal. I hope you were pavy we burried wisconsin.

[RogueScholar]

Oh, and the Browns have more Beavers starting on their team, QB Derek Anderson is a Beaver Legend. When he retires I want to see him get the keys to Corvallis. So I'm tailing you and betting against a Beaver, this better work.

[Brady2Moss]

I like the Giants -9 tonight.
I like the Giants to win by 10 points.
I like the Giants to open up a can of whoop-ass on the Browns.

[Kingctb27]

Giants are not as good as everyone thinks. Laying over 7 on the road is not a very good proposition. Browns +7.5 or w/e you can get it at looks great to me.

[durito]

tease it 6pts to 1.5

[pat venditto]

Durito i'll ****in bury ya pal.

[Italia_NYC]

Well listen, it's clear who the superior team is here. That being said, week in and week out, the better team does not always win. Although this year seems to negate this, the Champs really aren't known for blowing out people. Over the years, they also have an uncanny ability to play up or down to the level of their competition. But this team does seem different. They have a swagger about them that I haven't seen before. Plus, for some odd reason, the losers that comprise that brown team decided it would be a swell idea to talk trash about the Giants leading up to this game. Julius Jones tried that tactic last week and we know the outcome. Interesting to see what happens tonight.

[element1286]

tease it 6pts to 1.5

Exactly.

[VegasDave]

Alright, Aristotle, after your Philosophy pick last night, I'm following you here. This goes heavily against my grain too, since as an Eagles fan I can't stand the Giants. But using my head and not my heart, I like your rationale and you seem to make good picks.

Keep in mind that this isn't nearly as strong of a lean as I had towards StL, Mia, or SD... All "Philosophy" Picks that won Sunday. This is merely my assessment of the game which I thought I'd share. Laying 8 points on the road on Monday Night is no easy feat, no matter what. But since many seem to be considering the Browns, I thought I'd make a case for the Giants.

And to those of you calling this a square play; Crunching the numbers to see that the Giants are a vastly superior team, plugging in my score-predicting formula based on each team's last 4 games offensively and defensively (obviously just for reference, not to be taken at face value) and coming up with a 34 - 0 NYG victory, and lastly having good motivation to win big (make a statement, take a stranglehold on the division)... this is a well thought out play.

It may win or lose, but don't call me taking the superior team with motivation a square play. I think it is a smart play, and I think its the right play.

[CaneDawg]

I just need the browns +19.5

I think they can at least back door that...but this is the browns.

I might even throw a little on the Browns ML. Whose with me?

[Tigers1230]

Thing that scares me is the defenses the Browns have had to face so far. Dallas, Pitt, Baltimore, and Cinci (held Giants to 23 at home and went to overtime). They have NO running game so Anderson has been forced to put the ball in the air 30+ times a game. Without Winslow, their leading receiver, I think this is going to be a huge problem. I think the Giants whole game plan rests on their RB's. In the games that they have one handily, they had a strong running game. If Jacobs can get over 100 yrds Eli will pick them apart.

[moneyplays]

Corey Williams is what will cost the browns any chance they may have had. Giants are going to come out and Jacobs will have one helluva game. The Giants have not allowed a first-quarter touchdown this season. ... The Browns have committed 37 penalties in four games. There is disarray in their ball club. Is it Anderson is it Quinn? Personally, I don't blame the QB. I believe the Giants are playing better football than last year and I don't see them losing this season. They could go undefeated like the pats were supposed to. Yeah, that's crazy talk but hey, craziness is bound to happen.

[CaneDawg]

I just need the browns +19.5

I think they can at least back door that...but this is the browns.

I might even throw a little on the Browns ML. Whose with me?

On second thought I'll just try to get home the last leg of a 3 teamer (browns=19.5).

Just don't see the browns winning outright.

Good luck guys.

[Jayy]

by the looks of your record, im going with browns

[VegasDave]

by the looks of your record, im going with browns

I'm 46 - 39 on the year for 54.1% winners, and if you throw out week 1 (4 - 12... hard to cap week 1 when you haven't seen the teams in real action yet) I'm 42 - 27 since Week 2 for 60.8% winners in the NFL.

And thats every game against the spread. My best plays (Philosophy Plays) are 9 - 1 - 0.

If you like the Browns, play the Browns. But don't take a shot at my record, that just straight up doesn't make any sense.

[CaneDawg]

I'm 46 - 39 on the year for 54.1% winners, and if you throw out week 1 (4 - 12... hard to cap week 1 when you haven't seen the teams in real action yet) I'm 42 - 27 since Week 2 for 60.8% winners in the NFL.

And thats every game against the spread. My best plays (Philosophy Plays) are 9 - 1 - 0.

If you like the Browns, play the Browns. But don't take a shot at my record, that just straight up doesn't make any sense.

I agree.

You always pick a side and defend it well.

I always take a Listen on your videos.

[RogueJuror]

i like that

The Philosopher - Vegas Dave

[abc]

With you on this one, usc. I think the Giants are just too good. I agree with everyone saying that the Browns will come to play and that's why I also think the over is going to come through. Although the Browns are terrible, they'll be playing their hearts out and I see them getting at least 14. I can see the Giants easily getting 31+ on the Browns. What are you thoughts on the over? Also, what do you think for the 1st half? I was going to play over 21.5 and Browns +5.5. I think the Browns are going to come out fighting, but they'll end up falling apart in the 3rd and 4th quarter. That's when the Giant's skill will overcome the Browns since the Browns will be going all out from the first snap.

[Jayy]

i dunno about this game, a majority of bets are on giants. i dont think the books are gonna allow a big losing day. the house always wins. im staying away from this game

[RogueScholar]

What a heartbreaker....

But it was nice to see my former Beaver, Browns QB Derek Anderson, look like a world beater in front of a national audience.

I don't think the pick was bad, BTW, I went along with it. I do think that Tom Coughlin seemed to be taking a nap in the second half, though. Very unusual behavior by a few members of the Giants...

[keystonekid]

Why do the Giants win and cover?

[VegasDave]

Why do the Giants win and cover?

I am 19-3 (83%) winning ATS weekly including 2007, (ATS 166-72)70% regular season and 2008, (ATS 49-25 66%) thru week 5. Worst record 6-8 ATS week 14 2007. I do not want to add to that. Thank you very much.

No, I am not crazy.

Would you mind showing me where you have this stuff documented, Mr. Perfect?

[pat venditto]

[I.R.B]

Would you mind showing me where you have this stuff documented, Mr. Perfect?

That dude is fvcking off his rockers...

That is the same guy who asked if Org St was to be #1 after beating Usc..

[VegasDave]

Why do the Giants win and cover?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/107025-st-louis-rams-best-play-board-week.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/106716-lsu-backers-do-realize-lsu-hasnt-played-anyone-dont-they.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/106209-doesnt-anyone-factor-motivation-minnesota-ml.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/100654-cleveland-wins-outright-week.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/97183-guys-get-rice-over-me.html

I get one lean wrong and you break my balls? You people can be ridiculous sometimes.

Note how I never use the word LOCK either.

I just give you guys a fresh perspective on the game. I'm going to get one wrong every now and then.

[Iwinyourmoney]

I love everyone giving USCKing so much shit.
This guy breaks down games HARD for everyone, and people throw shit back at him if he misses a few? I think this guy breaks games down harded for the public, for free, better and more consistently then everyone Ive seen.

I don't care if this guy goes 0-12, his input is valueable and tries harder then anyone around here to help fellow posters pick the right side.