Am I missing something in this prop?

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  • picantel
    SBR MVP
    • 09-17-05
    • 4338

    #1
    Am I missing something in this prop?
    Combined Runs, Hits & Errors in TAM Garza v BOS Lester game -120

    NY Giants points scored (v CLE Browns) -110

    Giants put up big numbers each week and cleveland has no defense.

    lester has a career ERA of 3.38 in 4 starts v tampa and even more impressive this year is 3-0 with an era of .9 v tampa. garza is no slouch either with an ERA of 4.5 this year v boston and 3.86 career.

    Lester is averaging, using the above combined, 1 per inning with garza at 1.5. If you figure they continue at their averages and last at least 7 innings which I believe they can then you are at 17 + errors + 2 innings pullpen which both have been lights out. I also expect boston to win this game so no bottom of the 9th either. At most maybe 20-25 and I do not see how giants can score less. hmm

    this is on intertops
  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #2
    I like it and totally agree with you, especially with the baseball game being the slight favorite.
    Comment
    • skrtelfan
      SBR MVP
      • 10-09-08
      • 1913

      #3
      The baseball game RHE is lined at 27.5 and the Giants team total is lined at 25.5, so you'd have more value betting under on the RHE or over on the Giants team total than betting this prop.
      Comment
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