L.A. Angels -103 over L.A. Dodgers is my play of the evening

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65655

    #1
    L.A. Angels -103 over L.A. Dodgers is my play of the evening
    I've been following, and been a fan of tonight's Angel starter Garrett Richards since he was pitching for the Oklahoma Sooners in the college World Series in 2009.

    Richards was 32-10 in four years of minor league ball, all with the Angels organization, (first round supplemental pick) with a 3.31 ERA and 1.24 WH/IP ratio.

    Last season, his first in the show, Richard's was used in seven games, spot starting in three for Weaver when he was DL'ed.
    Now don't let the 7 game ERA and WH/IP numbers fool you from last season, Richards major league debut was an emergency start for Weaver, against the Yankees, in the big ball orchard in the South Bronx, where he went five innings giving up six earned. Real bad case of the major league rookie debut nerves. Hell, I know six year seasoned vets that crap themselves when they have to face that line up, in that environment in NYC.

    Concentrate on what Richards did in his last six games, was sterling in relief, spot started late September against Texas and was sharp giving up 1 earned while taking the loss. Throw away the rocky debut start at Yankee Stadium, his ERA is 3.00 for 2011, not 5 +.

    Trust me, I'm not trying to sell this kid on you, he's got three plus/plus pitches, he's a *smoke monster* sports two +/+ fastballs, has touched 100mph on the slow gun, averages out about 94/95 depending on what seam heater he throws. Has a nasty slider, average curve he uses as a fourth pitch.

    For a flame thrower Richards is uber-efficient, in the Texas league he averaged 13.5 pitches per inning. Nobody is that efficient.
    Will go right at you if he's 0-2 in the count, will not waste a pitch, his motto "time is valuable".
    Has terrific command for a raw rookie. Know how to 'pitch' keeps the ball down, as his minor league ground ball to fly ball ratio indicates.

    Check out Richards start last week against the M's
    7 IP, 4 Hits, 8 K's, 1 Earned

    So: what we have here is
    a pitch efficient, good control, two fastballs (both plus pitches), along with a change, curve and slider, strong ground ball rate, strikeouts that come in bunches
    smart kid that knows how to pitch against a Dodger line up without Kemp that is just ordinary.


    Now I know what you are probably saying, but Nashy, it's Cappy going for the Dodgers and it's in Dodger Stadium, you sure about this?
    Yes, I am.

    Nobody is disrespecting Capuano and his 8-2 record his 2.82 ERA and his fancy 1.08 WH/IP ratio.
    Look at his Cappy's last two starts, to be honest, they stunk, and I'm convinced the mystery is solved (if there ever was a mystery to begin with)
    He got a ugly win last start going only five full, giving up 4 earned on three moon shot homers.
    Start before that, against the Rocks, he went 5.1 innings, yielding 7 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits in that 13-3 Rockie ass kicking.

    Not to mention, the Angel line up has the sticks to handle the stuff Cappy offers, Angels bats tonight will not be confused.
    Here's further proof.
    Pujols and Cappy are not strangers, when Pujols was in the NL all those years with the Cards, Albert has faced him 33 times (38 if you include 5 walks)
    Pujols is 18 for 33 lifetime v. Capuano that's .545, get this, FIVE homers, 12 RBI's.
    Bet Big Albert is drooling to face him tonight.
    (By the way, have you seen the way Albert has been swinging the bat the last 10 games, can you say 2008 Cards?)
    Torji Hunter is 7 for 15 with a homer, 5 driven in against Cappy.
    Rest of the line up has only faced him 5 times or less, only one hitless in that group is Aybar, but since when has Aybar ever been a force?

    One more time:
    What we have here is
    a pitch efficient (Richards), good control, two fastballs (both plus pitches), along with a change, curve and slider, strong ground ball rate, strikeouts that come in bunches
    smart kid that knows how to pitch against a Dodger line up without Kemp that is just ordinary, going against, and at the end of the day (I hate that expression by the way) a journey man (65-66, 4.26, 1.34 WH/IP ratio lifetime) #3 at best type starter who's main power source (Kemp) is out of the batting order.

    One last thing.
    Ask yourself this?
    If the L.A. Dodgers are the world beating 39-22 first place, 21-9 at home force that they are, why are they only a man-to-man pick 'em in this game?
    Hmmm.






    Straight Wager
    119945496
    <small style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0.1em; list-style: none; font-size: 0.9em; background-color: rgb(37, 101, 161); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid silver; ">MLB</small>[957] LA ANGELS
    Action
    -103 $361.00 $350.00









  • sweethook
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-21-07
    • 12667

    #2
    great info here steve , gl man
    Comment
    • Utah_Jay
      SBR Sharp
      • 12-01-11
      • 258

      #3
      Awesome write up! Tailing on this one.
      Comment
      • stevenash
        Moderator
        • 01-17-11
        • 65655

        #4
        Originally posted by sweethook
        great info here steve , gl man
        Thank you sir.
        Comment
        • Jeffie
          SBR MVP
          • 04-06-12
          • 3428

          #5
          over 7 is my play GL.
          Comment
          • stevenash
            Moderator
            • 01-17-11
            • 65655

            #6
            Originally posted by Jeffie
            over 7 is my play GL.
            Pujols could cover the 7 by himself.
            Comment
            • Ron29301
              SBR MVP
              • 12-27-11
              • 2311

              #7
              It all depends on who can drive in runs. Im taking the Dodgers at home. Detroit held it down last night. I don't think the Angels can hold it down. But, we'll see GL guys.
              Comment
              • Filmoz
                SBR MVP
                • 10-05-11
                • 3933

                #8
                Was already on it, locked em in at +105 or something last night, feels even better after seeing the line move and reading your write-up.
                Comment
                • as99
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-25-10
                  • 1585

                  #9
                  Thanks for the write up Nash - will look into it near game time.
                  Comment
                  • jlee
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 07-22-11
                    • 375

                    #10
                    Money is on the over 7. capuano is 5-0 in 5 starts at home, but with trout, trumbo, and pujols hitting so well, he will allow some runs. capuano also receives a fair amount of run support and I believe the dodgers will put up runs against the young richards
                    Comment
                    • Khiaao
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 05-12-12
                      • 650

                      #11
                      Nice
                      Comment
                      • Smoke
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 10-09-09
                        • 48111

                        #12
                        I was sold when you said "smoke monster"
                        Comment
                        • jjgold
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 07-20-05
                          • 388179

                          #13
                          Good play

                          Dodgers down a little without Kemp
                          Comment
                          • stevenash
                            Moderator
                            • 01-17-11
                            • 65655

                            #14
                            Originally posted by jlee
                            Money is on the over 7. capuano is 5-0 in 5 starts at home, but with trout, trumbo, and pujols hitting so well, he will allow some runs. capuano also receives a fair amount of run support and I believe the dodgers will put up runs against the young richards
                            Trumbo has been an animal lately. Glad LAA held on to him
                            Comment
                            • starfire
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 03-24-10
                              • 17045

                              #15
                              I like it!
                              Plus my Halos got my Lad's #
                              Torrie & Trout on Fire
                              Comment
                              • HoulihansTX
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 02-12-09
                                • 30566

                                #16
                                I would be careful monitoring the line movement on the total. Much has to do with angels success hitting the ball in Colorado, but now they are @ sea level. Chavez ravine is an extremely normalized park in terms of park factors.
                                Comment
                                • russiaboss
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 02-15-10
                                  • 735

                                  #17
                                  All over Angels -1 1/2

                                  GL
                                  Comment
                                  • KingJD31
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 11-04-11
                                    • 8167

                                    #18
                                    angels teeing off on cap no question
                                    Comment
                                    • RyanLeafOfBets
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 01-03-10
                                      • 8164

                                      #19
                                      I jumped on this when I saw it this AM. Let's go!!!!!!!!
                                      Comment
                                      • crzdmaniacus
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 06-07-12
                                        • 24

                                        #20
                                        Sick analysis. Have been looking for your threads and finally you drop some knowledge! whether your picks win or lose, it is without a doubt, IMHO, highly respected!
                                        Comment
                                        • anthonydiamondLC
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-02-08
                                          • 2296

                                          #21
                                          This is a great writeup and solid input. If we had more posts like this regarding games and information SBR would have more winners.
                                          Comment
                                          • a4u2fear
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 01-29-10
                                            • 8147

                                            #22
                                            thanks steve, always appreciate your plays.
                                            Comment
                                            • jmbbarata
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 10-08-11
                                              • 309

                                              #23
                                              Well done Stevenash.But I go in the over ,5-3 or 5-4 to LAA
                                              Comment
                                              • stevenash
                                                Moderator
                                                • 01-17-11
                                                • 65655

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by crzdmaniacus
                                                Sick analysis. Have been looking for your threads and finally you drop some knowledge! whether your picks win or lose, it is without a doubt, IMHO, highly respected!
                                                I appreciate your words.
                                                Comment
                                                • frogsrangers
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 04-25-12
                                                  • 5792

                                                  #25
                                                  Fading

                                                  I think this is the series that gets the Angels back to reality. I think being put back into a pitchers park tonight will be kind of a road block here and they don't put many runs on the board tonight.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • MagicDiceFlow
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-15-12
                                                    • 4585

                                                    #26
                                                    Totally agree with you on Capuano , Nash. If anyone's been watching him through the years, the guy has nothing special. I think he's been fortunate to be pitching at Dodgers stadium which is why his numbers are bit skewed. He'll start coming back down to earth like in previous years and will end up with an ERA in the mid 4's.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • stevenash
                                                      Moderator
                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                      • 65655

                                                      #27
                                                      Gordon SS
                                                      Herrera 3B
                                                      Ethier RF
                                                      Abreu LF
                                                      Hairston Jr. 2B
                                                      Loney 1B
                                                      Ellis C
                                                      Gwynn Jr. CF
                                                      (Capuano P)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Ron29301
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-27-11
                                                        • 2311

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by frogsrangers
                                                        Fading

                                                        I think this is the series that gets the Angels back to reality. I think being put back into a pitchers park tonight will be kind of a road block here and they don't put many runs on the board tonight.
                                                        Lets get it Frog!!!!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • I_WILL_WIN
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 07-19-10
                                                          • 495

                                                          #29
                                                          GL I'm tailing!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Ron29301
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-27-11
                                                            • 2311

                                                            #30
                                                            <small>MLB</small>[1958] 1H LA DODGERS
                                                            C CAPUANO -L/G RICHARDS -R
                                                            -110 $110.00 $100.00
                                                            Comment
                                                            • jmbbarata
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 10-08-11
                                                              • 309

                                                              #31
                                                              A good option to me is the under 25 runs+hits+errors
                                                              Comment
                                                              • konck
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 10-17-06
                                                                • 12554

                                                                #32
                                                                OK im going with you her ekid I was looking for a game tonight to play alone.
                                                                Ill bet Angels str 102-100
                                                                an a parlay of Devils-Braves 50 to win 202
                                                                Comment
                                                                • stevenash
                                                                  Moderator
                                                                  • 01-17-11
                                                                  • 65655

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Trout CF
                                                                  Hunter RF
                                                                  Pujols 1B
                                                                  Trumbo LF
                                                                  Kendrick 2B
                                                                  Callaspo 3B
                                                                  Aybar SS
                                                                  Hester C
                                                                  (Richards P
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • stevenash
                                                                    Moderator
                                                                    • 01-17-11
                                                                    • 65655

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by konck
                                                                    OK im going with you her ekid I was looking for a game tonight to play alone.
                                                                    Ill bet Angels str 102-100
                                                                    an a parlay of Devils-Braves 50 to win 202
                                                                    p.s. like the Braves play myself
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • actiondan
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-16-10
                                                                      • 3451

                                                                      #35
                                                                      -230 +1.5 RL. Booyah
                                                                      Comment
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