I'm Fading Bill Belichick Again

firedawg · 10-12-08, 11:10 AM

Huge

spongerat · 10-12-08, 11:18 AM

any reasoning? I think the Pats cover

bigboydan · 10-12-08, 11:31 AM

Go San Diego

SportsG · 10-12-08, 11:45 AM

bad idea!

big joe 1212 · 10-12-08, 11:50 AM

Chargers suck

ryanXL977 · 10-12-08, 12:26 PM

chargers suck
im on new engl ml

diogee · 10-12-08, 12:33 PM

Chambers being out hurts a little...was hoping to get it at -4 but looks like it has been driven back up.

mtneer1212 · 10-12-08, 12:33 PM

CrazyL -- I wish you luck, and normally, fading Belichick is fun -- but Norv Turner is far worse.

Clueless_Norway · 10-12-08, 01:42 PM

Gonna go huge on SNF, but not shure on who yet....
Right now I like the Chargers, but last week I hit big on the underdog in both SNF and MNF.... Pats ML at +210 is realy tempting tho...

A expert writeup:
Qualcomm Stadium will be the site of Sunday’s clash between the two teams that played for the AFC title last year. These are not quite the same two teams and Sunday night's prime-time matchup has lost a bit of its luster with the Chargers struggling and the Patriots trying to find their identity without QB Tom Brady.

This series has become a huge rivalry game between the Chargers and the New England Patriots. San Diego has been eliminated from Super Bowl contention by the Patriots in each of the past two seasons and this gives good cause for some revenge here tonight.
The Chargers are 2-3, two games out of first place in the AFC-West behind Denver, who have already defeated them this season. The Patriots are 3-1, but their aura of invincibility took a hit with the Super Bowl loss to the Giants last year and when Brady went down with a season-ending injury in the season-opener. Both teams have already lost to Miami who went 1-15 last season.

New England put 30 points on the 49ers last week but that score is a bit misleading. They were certainly helped by the 49ers QB JT O’Sullivan who threw three INT’s on the day. The Patriots averaged just 4.8 yards per play in that game against a Niners’ defense that averages allowing 5.1 yards per play at home to an average team.

Our Offensive Efficiency Index (OEI) shows the Chargers even with LT (3.7 yards per rush) starting slow are still ranked 2nd in the league in this category. The Chargers average only 10.99 yards per point while the Patriots are ranked 19th in the league and average 15.08 yards per point. These numbers show how efficient the Chargers are on the offensive side of the ball. This index measures not only offensive numbers but the proficiency of defense, special teams, red zone defense and turnover differential.

If you were to listen to the “so-called” experts you would think that Patriots QB Matt Cassel has performed rather well. We don’t think so and here’s one of the key reasons why we know he is not doing well replacing Tom Brady. Last season New England led the league in average Passing Yards per Attempt. Now our PYPA is much more advanced than say the numbers you will find at ESPN.com or Yahoo Sports. Our numbers include sacks and this is a major component to this equation that is if you want to find the spread winner in this or any football game.

Like we stated New England led the league last season but this season they are ranked 22nd averaging only 5.51 yards per pass attempt. Tonight’s opponent the San Diego Chargers rank 3rd in the league this season averaging 7.76 yards per pass attempt. This is a huge difference and usually leads to a successful investment opportunity.

New England’s defense has lost a step and are not the unit that went 18-0 last season. Their linebackers are certainly slow and their defense is weak against the run which should cost them tonight against a Chargers team that has LT and Darren Sproles to rush the football.

The Chargers defense will get a lift with the return of linebacker Stephen Cooper from suspension. This will help with their rush defense and that is an area of weakness for this Patriots team. The Patriots are using a running back by committee with Lawrence Maroney injured and have found the going to be extremely tough.

Our Defensive Efficiency Index (DEI) shows the Patriots ranked 11th in the league forcing opponents to average 15.19 yards per point. The Chargers are ranked 15th in the league and they are forcing opponents to average 14.69 yards per point. A slight edge for the Patriots but the competition has something to do with this difference as the Chargers have faced a very tough Carolina team and a high scoring Denver squad.

Our Situational Report for this contest shows the Chargers to be in a positive situation in tonight’s game. Play ON teams with a 1st Down Pass Rating For >1 and an ATS Win% <=.600, 82-27 ATS since 1994.

Technical Support for our selection can be found in these powerful angles. SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. passing defenses that are allowing a completion pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 11-2 ATS vs. teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 17-7 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 15-4 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Data base research has uncovered a solid NFL Power System that says to Play On NFL Favorites after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% playing a team with a winning record, 35-11 ATS since 1983.

This contest is very important to this Chargers squad not only because the Patriots have sent them home the last two seasons during the AFC Championship games but for this season. They are almost in a must win situation and each member of the Chargers team realizes it and are aware of what is needed tonight.

We look for the Chargers to come out and play very physical and not let up as they get the win and cover.

GRADED PREDICTION: 6* San Diego Chargers -5

Just found one who is on the Pats:
I’ll grab all these points tonight as New England very much has a chance to win this game outright. After being embarrassed at home three weeks ago by Miami, New England used the bye week to set things right and then rebounded with a solid at San Francisco last Sunday. Now having stayed the week on the left coast, Bill Belichick’s crew is primed for a prime time upset tonight. Having covered 20 of their last 28 road games, New England will be in this game all night long. I tell you what, this San Diego team has really missed Shawne Merriman on the defensive side of the football. No longer are the Bolts one of the league’s defensive elite and Randy Moss & Co., will make them pay deep tonight. San Diego is yielding a league worst 265 yards per game passing and 10 touchdowns through the air. Overall, San Diego is ranked a dismal 28th in the league in yards allowed and this is a New England offense that has been serviceable under the direction of QB Matt Cassell, who passed for 259 yards last week. San Diego allowed Miami’s Ronnie Brown to run for 125 yards last week and I expect New England to pound the run to set up the pass this evening. On the other side of the football, L.T. has not been himself this season as clearly this nagging turf toe injury is limiting his effectiveness. Philip Rivers is good, but prone to mistakes and this New England defense is playing with confidence after limiting a decent San Fran attack to just 199 total yards a week ago. New England has now won 12 straight road games and the road team has covered five of the last six meetings in this series. This is just too many points to ask a team with a losing record to cover versus a still very talented and veteran team playing with a chip on its shoulder. New England plus the points is the winning play here.