Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay D'Rays

reno cool · 10-08-08, 03:04 AM

oh i hope not

LT Profits · 10-08-08, 05:45 AM

I lean Rays but I am probably staying away from series play.

Shark79 · 10-08-08, 10:06 AM

I hope ur right TS.

reno cool · 10-08-08, 04:22 PM

my feeling is its likely to be a close series with Tampa the more likely winner.
No way you should be laying odds on Bos.

fireal · 10-08-08, 04:29 PM

Love the Sox in this series.....their pitching out classes Tampa..

Game 1: Matsuzaka > Shields
Game 2: Josh Beckett < Kazmir (Only game where pitching wise TB has an edge)
Game 3: Jon Lester > Garza
Game 4: Tim Wakefield > Sonnanstine (Wakefield owns the Rays big time)

Shark79 · 10-08-08, 05:02 PM

it would be nice to see the sox vrs manny

Tsoprano · 10-08-08, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by fireal

Love the Sox in this series.....their pitching out classes Tampa..

Game 1: Matsuzaka > Shields
Game 2: Josh Beckett < Kazmir (Only game where pitching wise TB has an edge)
Game 3: Jon Lester > Garza
Game 4: Tim Wakefield > Sonnanstine (Wakefield owns the Rays big time)

Bread · 10-08-08, 07:54 PM

Rays in 7. Yea I said it.

TheLock · 10-08-08, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by fireal

Love the Sox in this series.....their pitching out classes Tampa..

Game 1: Matsuzaka > Shields
Game 2: Josh Beckett < Kazmir (Only game where pitching wise TB has an edge)
Game 3: Jon Lester > Garza
Game 4: Tim Wakefield > Sonnanstine (Wakefield owns the Rays big time)

Wrong.

Dice K's WHIP: 1.32

Shields WHIP: 1.15

As I'm sure you know, WHIP is the best stat to use to evaluate a pitcher. A far more useful stat than Wins and even ERA.

So that blows that theory out of the sky.

So being Tampa now has the pitching edge in game 1 and 5 and Kazmir will face Beckett again in game 6, what are your thoughts on the series?

fireal · 10-08-08, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by TheLock

Wrong.

Dice K's WHIP: 1.32

Shields WHIP: 1.15

As I'm sure you know, WHIP is the best stat to use to evaluate a pitcher. A far more useful stat than Wins and even ERA.

So that blows that theory out of the sky.

You can't just objectively state that WHIP is a more useful stat and then throw ERA under the bus. That would be retarded, let alone useless, you have to compare both. I agree that wins are meaningless and more of an indication on the strength of your club, but if you're comparing two pitchers you have to factor in ERA and WHIP together. Isolating one or the other does nothing.

Dice-K's WHIP is slightly higher because he throws alot of pitches which contribute to more walks (twice as many as Shields), but he also gives up almost half as many hits. When you factor these together and compare the ERA's, this shows that Dice-K is the better pitcher. The fact that he has a higher WHIP yet STILL has a significantly lower ERA than Shields proves he has a knack for working around hitters he doesn't want to face and getting the batters out that he wants. He's able to give up more walks to batters he doesn't want to face because he's always a threat to strikeout the next better or get the inning ending DP he needs.

You can then factor in a 3rd telling stat in addition to ERA and WHIP which is opponents BAA. Batters hit just .211 against Dice-K this year compared to Shields .254.

Boston has faced Shields 4 times already this season and altogether has been mediocre, he's not going to be giving them anything they haven't seen.

Shields is a good pitcher but advantage Dice-K.

TheLock · 10-08-08, 08:57 PM

Dice K's BAA is low because he never throws the ball in the strike zone. Tampa's hitters are too smart for that and he will BB a ton of guys who will all walk home when the 3 run HR hits.

I didn't throw ERA under the bus, but if you to chose just one, I'd easily go with WHIP. There is no luck involved in the WHIP stat where there is some (not a lot) but some luck involved in ERA.

I'd be glad to get into this even deeper but it will have to wait till tommorow because the Ambien I took is kicking my ass right now and I need sleep.

Tsoprano · 10-08-08, 09:19 PM

Dike-K has been great, I dont need stats, I just need to see that name pitching and everything will be ok.

Matsuzaka and Lester, backed with such an incredible line of offense, how can people still fade these guys?

I.R.B · 10-08-08, 09:20 PM

The only game im betting is Game 2 when Lester goes up to pitch...

Other then that yes boston in 6

Tsoprano · 10-08-08, 09:21 PM

You should take their series price too. Small bet if you want, but itll make each game count when you watch.

Kingctb27 · 10-08-08, 09:34 PM

Lol, Kazmir is better than Beckett? Pshh. Have you seen Beckett's post season #'s? Normally I would say that it's a smaller sample size and doesn't mean success, but Beckett has been huge throughout his post season career. Kazmir got lit up by the Sox with like 4 HR his last time against them. Sharp money is on the Sox.

I.R.B · 10-08-08, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by Tsoprano

Dike-K has been great, I dont need stats, I just need to see that name pitching and everything will be ok.

Matsuzaka and Lester, backed with such an incredible line of offense, how can people still fade these guys?

Thats what im thinking

Tsoprano · 10-08-08, 09:39 PM

**Not to mention the experience they have**

Capybara · 10-08-08, 10:15 PM

I'm a Bostonian, so I've watched these guys all year... and the posters are correct who say that the Sox have a slight edge. But it's only slight -- the Rays are for real and have shown it all year. So many talented players... and no pressure on them at ALL since no one thought they'd be here, plus they're mostly too young to feel real pressure.

Edge goes to the Sox because of their starters... IF Beckett isn't affected by his oblique injury. I think he'll be fine, so I think it goes to the Sox. Lester is absolutely LIGHTS OUT right now, and Dice-K is 9-0, 2.33 or something on the road...

Bottom line, Sox know how to win these games, SO much playoff experience.

fireal · 10-08-08, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by Kingctb27

Lol, Kazmir is better than Beckett? Pshh. Have you seen Beckett's post season #'s? Normally I would say that it's a smaller sample size and doesn't mean success, but Beckett has been huge throughout his post season career. Kazmir got lit up by the Sox with like 4 HR his last time against them. Sharp money is on the Sox.

I like his matchup with Boston regardless of how you want to compare their stuff this year (in which Kazmir has had a medicore year but still pulled better than Beckett).

He instantly takes out three of their bigger bats

Oritz - 8 for 38 .205
Youk - 7 for 35 .200
Drew - 1 for 7 .143

And yes, Beckett has a track record of dominating in the postseason but he's pitching hurt right now and showing it. He didn't exactly bring it against the Angels in front of his home crowd.

Either way you're arguing with somebody who agrees that the Sox will win the series.

reno cool · 10-09-08, 04:00 AM

Anything is possible, but Sox are overvalued. None of the Boston pitchers are monsters, all can be beat. Lester has been overachieving, Matszuzaka is inconsistent and tends to walk many. Beckett might be the best one. Similar for Tampa, but they do have homefield and played Boston well.
Since the Sox are champs, and beat a higher seeded LAA the line is shaded in their direction.

Which games do you think will have bos as big fav?

Willie Bee · 10-09-08, 10:48 AM

I've been among the many who have simply been waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Rays and for them to fall back this season. The Red Sox, as defending champs, should be the favorite in this one as they are, but I'm not about to let the Rays prove me wrong again. Also don't think Matsuzaka has the edge over Shields in terms of pitching. If you want to give him an edge for having more experience in October, fine, but not just from a pitching standpoint.

Tsoprano · 10-19-08, 12:05 AM

Game 7!!