Point buying (NFL and NCAAF) Video

[Justin7]

Just a quickie. I'd like to do teasers soon, but people have to understand this first.

[bigboydan]

Good video Mr.Justin.

[RogueJuror]

I liked it, my favorite Justin video thus far.

[gm2022]

Great Video Justin! Cant Wait for your Teaser Video

[Doc JS]

Another great vid, Justin...

Now, we're waiting on the teaser video!!

Doc

[AMBlai01]

Very nice video....good work as always!

[onthewhat]

good video

[SlickFazzer]

Solid info.

[Brady2Moss]

I would have to say Justin and Ganch are the only people on this forum that actually have something useful to say

[I.R.B]

[reno cool]

I would have to say Justin and Ganch are the only people on this forum that actually have something useful to say

true about this thread only.

[HedgeHog]

Good info, Justin.

[pico]

good vid

[compaqDikk]

who's the cat in the ND/UNC vid? when's the last time you've left your pad and given him a walk/fresh air?

[Justin7]

who's the cat in the ND/UNC vid? when's the last time you've left your pad and given him a walk/fresh air?

That is Scoobie. He's a mensa cat- he took the internet test when I was asleep. It's kinda scarey having a cat smarter than you... He orders crap from Amazon all the time with my CC.

[Justin7]

who's the cat in the ND/UNC vid? when's the last time you've left your pad and given him a walk/fresh air?

And don't confuse him with Jinx, who was pictured in the "handicapping march madness" feature. She's sharp - especially with baskets, but she's no Mensa cat. Below 140, you're considered a bastard stepchild. But I still love her.

[Tsoprano]

great video

[ICE-BLOOD]

another great video

nice mathematical breakdown

3 is a key # in the nfl

if the situation arises in the nfl, where i like a team against the spread, and the spread is at or even around 3, and i'm ready to confirm a wager, i will now do more to try to get that extra 1/2 point, including paying for it

this extra 1/2 point edge also gives a psychological advantage when viewing the game in the 4th quarter and trying to foresee the possible final score knowing you got that extra 1/2

[McBa1n]

Thanks for the video, Justin. Since I really only bet football, this is very helpful to me. I've always wondered the value in 1/2 points - But now I see there is more value than I had thought in the situations I was considering.
I'm really looking forward to a teaser video... It can't come soon enough.:>
Thanks again, man, for the solid information.

[Sforz]

nice work justin.. you know i'd love to see that teaser video ...

[Arilou]

These are good solid basics (and obviously where you find the 10-cent 3 in college you take it, including buying the 4 to get to it if you need to, I can't believe it is still out there but it is, although rarely). There are also other numbers that may be worth it to buy (in particular 14, 17 and 24) but there simply aren't enough games to know. Justin's numbers are the numbers that you can buy with confidence, and there are additional intersting corner cases like buying the 6 to get to the 7, where the 6 isn't worth it but the 7 is too cheap and you get the compounding effect Justin mentions where you get a discount for buying in bulk. Also there is a slight difference between buying onto and off of a point in terms of how often the point has to land for you to break even.

[Justin7]

These are good solid basics (and obviously where you find the 10-cent 3 in college you take it, including buying the 4 to get to it if you need to, I can't believe it is still out there but it is, although rarely). There are also other numbers that may be worth it to buy (in particular 14, 17 and 24) but there simply aren't enough games to know. Justin's numbers are the numbers that you can buy with confidence, and there are additional intersting corner cases like buying the 6 to get to the 7, where the 6 isn't worth it but the 7 is too cheap and you get the compounding effect Justin mentions where you get a discount for buying in bulk. Also there is a slight difference between buying onto and off of a point in terms of how often the point has to land for you to break even.

I agree with everything you said... But it would take me another 30 minutes to cover that, and 6 minutes pushes the attention span here

[smitch124]

yes, we bee stoopid...

[marcoforte]

Great video. Don't forget the totals.

[Bullajami]

Echoing the "great video" sentiments.

Question: You mention going back for the past 20 years you'd find 10% of NFL games are won by 3 points. Where can one find a current table with those NFL margins of victory?

Is there one available for NCAA?

[Ganchrow]

Question: You mention going back for the past 20 years you'd find 10% of NFL games are won by 3 points. Where can one find a current table with those NFL margins of victory?

NFL Absolute MOVs

Note that the table in the linked post applies to absolute MOVs and not favorite MOVs (hence a MOV of exactly 3 occurring roughly 15.5% of the time).

For favorite MOVs within 2 points of the spread see the first post of that thread.

(If you're wondering why it's appropriate to ignore the NFL rule changes that have occurred since 1985, the answer is that strictly speaking it's not.)

[Bullajami]

You never disappoint, sir.

Out of curiosity - how often do you update the data inputs for your half-point calculator? Is any of the 2008 NFL season reflected in it yet?

[Ganchrow]

Out of curiosity - how often do you update the data inputs for your half-point calculator? Is any of the 2008 NFL season reflected in it yet?

Last NFL update was at the end of last season.

It's shouldn't change much if the current season-to-date were included.

[Justin7]

Ganch -

Why don't you do some videos for us?

[Arilou]

macroforte, totals are easy, because there are no scenarios where you can gain substantial value by buying points at the standard price, although there are very special cases where it may be close. If you're offered half-points at a discount, of course, it comes down to what you think the math is on that particular point.

[RickySteve]

macroforte, totals are easy, because there are no scenarios where you can gain substantial value by buying points at the standard price, although there are very special cases where it may be close. If you're offered half-points at a discount, of course, it comes down to what you think the math is on that particular point.

There are certain numbers which historically have offered value to buy. Of course, 'past results are no guarantee of future performance'.

[Arilou]

Ricky, right, that's why I said substantial value. There are some points that historically you make money by buying, but whether you actually have value doing that is hard to say and the edge involved is small enough that I wouldn't worry about it unless you have your own model.

[pats3peat]

These are good solid basics (and obviously where you find the 10-cent 3 in college you take it, including buying the 4 to get to it if you need to, I can't believe it is still out there but it is, although rarely). There are also other numbers that may be worth it to buy (in particular 14, 17 and 24) but there simply aren't enough games to know. Justin's numbers are the numbers that you can buy with confidence, and there are additional intersting corner cases like buying the 6 to get to the 7, where the 6 isn't worth it but the 7 is too cheap and you get the compounding effect Justin mentions where you get a discount for buying in bulk. Also there is a slight difference between buying onto and off of a point in terms of how often the point has to land for you to break even.

what do you mean by "if buying the 6 to get to the 7 isnt worth it, but 7 is cheap, then you could buy the 7"?

Does that mean.. if the spread is +6, and +6.5 is pretty expensive, you would buy the +7 if its cheap (buying in bulk)?

Or does that mean ... if the spread is +6.5 and buying to +7 is too expensive, then you could buy +7.5?

Thanks man

[Ganchrow]

what do you mean by "if buying the 6 to get to the 7 isnt worth it, but 7 is cheap, then you could buy the 7"?

Does that mean.. if the spread is +6, and +6.5 is pretty expensive, you would buy the +7 if its cheap (buying in bulk)?

Or does that mean ... if the spread is +6.5 and buying to +7 is too expensive, then you could buy +7.5?

Thanks man

I'd suggest just playing around with different values using the half-point calculator.

[Frank]

I know these videos are helpful to the players but.....

Greek/Olympic offered 10 cents buys on/off 3 in college for at least the past 10 years.....

Justin makes a video.......

Greek just changed to 15 cents just this week.....