A little extra entertainment on football Saturdays and Sundays

[MonkeyF0cker]

Along with my regular, straight wagers today, I decided to essentially buy what I call a lottery ticket: a 6-team pleaser. For those of you unfamiliar with pleasers, essentially they are reverse teasers, generally laying 6 additional points on each side. I was a little bored this morning so I decided to run down to the Tuscany Casino here in Vegas and play one. I have found that it is generally easier to hit these in this part of the football season, when the lines tend to be a little looser against the outcome than later in the season where every game seems to be a sweat right down to the final drive. However, I don't recommend using these as a means to increase your bankroll, rather for entertainment purposes only. But at the same time, I learned a valuable lesson today that cost me $14k. I went against my (computerized model) capping of one game and it cost me the ticket. I took the other side on a hunch because I didn't feel confident about my straight bet with them. It ended up that five of my games on the ticket were at 10AM, which all covered, and the last play (the one that I changed) was the only game at 1PM. Anyway, here was my pleaser along with the win percentages I had the games capped at:

Carolina (85%) -16.5
Washington (56%) -3.5
Chicago (79%) -10.5
Atlanta (53%) +0.5
NY Giants (85%) -14.5
Buffalo (42%) -6.5

$20 to win $13,980

At least the game wasn't close...

[Richkas]

Im glad

[MonkeyF0cker]

As a side note, of the 13 NFL games today, 9 sides covered on the Cal-Neva (Tuscany Casino) pleaser card...

[diogee]

That would have been one hell of a hit for $20. Nice capping.

[MonkeyF0cker]

That would have been one hell of a hit for $20. Nice capping.

Yeah. Would have been nice. Thanks, buddy. I was kicking myself today, even though I made money on the game...

[Justin7]

There is a science to playing pleasers...

[MonkeyF0cker]

Yeah. I'm sure there is, Justin. I've just never looked into it. However, this has certainly piqued my interest. I was thinking about heading to the Gambler's General store and looking for some books on the topic tomorrow. Any recommendations?

[donjuan]

There is a science to playing pleasers...

Shhhhhhhhhhhh.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Don,

There are plenty of books available on the subject. It's not as if it is privvy knowledge. Anyone that wants to learn it, can. The books already know about those betting methodologies anyway.

[donjuan]

I'd still prefer the info not become widely circulated and publicly talked about. Few online books have pleasers as is.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Understandable.

[reno cool]

with all those early games winning I would've been tempted to find a hedge.

gd job anyway

[MonkeyF0cker]

There really is no hedge on a pleaser. You're either going to pay nearly 3:1 on your hedge or run the risk of getting middled. I only had $20 invested. I'd rather be in a position where that $20 makes me $14k than to have $3020 invested to win $11k or $980...

[reno cool]

After your wins, your ticket had a value of maybe $3000. I'm sure you could have hedged to guarantee $1000+profit(while still having chance of bigger win). If thats not overly significant amount compared to your usual bets then understandably it wouldn't be worth your time.

However, its interesting to think how one would approach such a hedge. Off the top of my head I'm thinking you would have to bet a 2team teaser. And then take the second team in another pleaser.

[MonkeyF0cker]

A 5-team pleaser would have paid $4800. The only way to hedge is to either buy the points or be on a dog that is -0.5 or better and hit the ML on the favorite. You cannot hedge with a 2-team teaser as your other side may lose. That would be an absolute disaster. Not only could you lose your $20 pleaser bet but also however much you placed on the hedge attempt. The simple truth is, you shouldn't hedge it.

[reno cool]

you would bet a pleaser opposite side your other teams teaser. Buying points would be the easiest thing if available.

So you basically had a $4800 bet on Buff-6.5 at 2-1. If I understand you correctly.
Unless you're comfortable betting that prop at that amount, you should hedge.

[MonkeyF0cker]

No. I had $20 on the Bills -6.5 to win $14k. I'll take that bet every time. Hedging a pleaser is completely counter-productive...

[reno cool]

hate to be beating a dead horse.

Is it not true that after the 1st 5 won your $20 ticket was worth 4800?

[MonkeyF0cker]

No. It was still worth nothing...