Lets fade Bill Belichick, who's down?

[ryanXL977]

cheater

[L2Gunz]

Fade the best coach in history against the 49ers and you deserve to lose.

[slacker00]

I'm sorry I didn't see this thread before the game. Fading Bill Belichick seems like insanity. What's his ATS record over the years? How about in recent years? I don't know what it is, but I bet it DOESN'T give reason to fade him. I was laying the points with NE this weekend.

If Brady wasn't out for the season, I was putting them at 16-0, given their schedule. Obviously everything has to go right in addition to having a good team, but this team had the horsepower to do it again. Even with Brady out, this team can get to 10-6, right around the playoff cutoff. That's a helluva lot better than San Fran right now.

[slacker00]

Here's his ATS:
2008 so far: 2-2
2007:10-6
2006:10-6
2005:8-8
2004:11-3-2
2003:13-2-1
2002:6-10
2001:11-5
2000:7-9

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/statistics/2000-2001/ats_regular.html&t=0

I tried to look at his ATS at Cleveland but the data at covers doesn't go back that far.

[jjgold]

Pats surprised me here, we all got fooled by SF QB that had one good game and we all jumped on him.

[slacker00]

Pats surprised me here, we all got fooled by SF QB that had one good game and we all jumped on him.

I'm mostly responding to the original title of the thread. I imagine it was meant toungue-in-cheek, that fading Belichick was a wise handicapping strategy. I'm just trying to help the junior cappers understand that it's actually a good trend to bet on Belichick ATS, everything else being equal.

I don't feel like doing another data mining workout, but I wonder how Belichick's record ATS differs versus the experience of the opponent QB. I think Belichick would do a LOT better against inexperienced QBs (few NFL starts). Belichick's strength is defensive scheming. Nothing will kill an inexperienced QB like a defensive mastermind with the right scheme.

[mgcolby]

cheater

Jealousy is a bitch!

And people from the Bay area shouldn't throw around the "cheater" label given the history in the bay area!

[mgcolby]

You are overestimating New England. Their defense is a year older and a step slower, that performance vs. Miami was not a fluke. If anything, there first game without Brady vs. the Jets was the anomaly.

Also, the extra week of preparation won't make Cassel's arm strength any better. Moss has become a non-factor, and it is just a matter of time before he becomes a cancer again.

I wish I had seen this quote yesterday prior to the game.

- Brady went down in the first quarter with 7:30 minutes left in a scoreless game. So Cassel played all but two offensive possesions.

- New England's Defense is young as a whole, you must look beyond LB corp (which actually got a lot younger as a group) and Harrison in the secondary.

- Cassell has a big arm, obviously you didn't see his 51 yard bomb off of his back foot in week 1. His accuracy and read progression needs to improve, but arm strength is not a problem.

- Moss has been a non-factor because he has a safety rolled on top of him every single play. Yesterday they moved him around more and had him in twin and trip packages, instead of leaving him split out alone.

You should have either asked or watched a Pats game or two before you put up your cash.

[slacker00]

Good writeup, mgcolby.

I agree that the Pats have invested in youth in their defense, but it's still in transition. The old guys can still play, but later in the season then those nicks & whatnot don't heal as quickly it really slows them down I think. Nevertheless, the Pats used the entire draft this year on defense, so those young dogs will be working their way into the lineup relieving the vets and giving them fresher legs for the big push. It should be very interesting to see how the Pats 2008 rookie crop develop this year. The season really depends on getting good snaps from the rookie depth. If you look at the Giants rookies last year, they really were integral in their Super Bowl run.

mgcolby, keep us posted on how the younger guys are devloping as the season goes forward, will ya? I get to watch a Pats game here and there, but I imagine you're watching them every week, so you'll really get to examine the team depth and progress of the younger players week to week. You just can't see that on highlight shows.

[mgcolby]

Good writeup, mgcolby.

I agree that the Pats have invested in youth in their defense, but it's still in transition. The old guys can still play, but later in the season then those nicks & whatnot don't heal as quickly it really slows them down I think. Nevertheless, the Pats used the entire draft this year on defense, so those young dogs will be working their way into the lineup relieving the vets and giving them fresher legs for the big push. It should be very interesting to see how the Pats 2008 rookie crop develop this year. The season really depends on getting good snaps from the rookie depth. If you look at the Giants rookies last year, they really were integral in their Super Bowl run.

mgcolby, keep us posted on how the younger guys are devloping as the season goes forward, will ya? I get to watch a Pats game here and there, but I imagine you're watching them every week, so you'll really get to examine the team depth and progress of the younger players week to week. You just can't see that on highlight shows.

Obviously Mayo is playing well. But Guyton (Rookie) is also getting time at ILB especially in sub packages. Woods a third year player, is in the OLB rotation. James Sanders a fourth year player at Safety has essentially replaced Harrison as the starting SS and Merriweather (last year's 1st round pick) is the FS. Wilhite (rookie) is seeing a lot of time at nickel.

Wheatley showed a ton of promise during the preseason at CB but is behind O'neal, Hobbs and Lewis Sanders. So I don't expect to see him unless there are some injuries at CB. Another enigma is Crable, he was an absolute beast during preseason, but hasn't suited up for a game in the regular season...yet.

[slacker00]

Looks like they are coming along nicely. As an Indy fan, it's brutal to see that the Pats keep reloading with strong young talent. Why can't they hire Matt Millen to run their draft for a couple years, you know, to make it fair for the rest of the league.

I hate the Pats, but I gotta tip my hat to the success they've had under Billy B.

[pats3peat]

I wish I had seen this quote yesterday prior to the game.

- Brady went down in the first quarter with 7:30 minutes left in a scoreless game. So Cassel played all but two offensive possesions.

- New England's Defense is young as a whole, you must look beyond LB corp (which actually got a lot younger as a group) and Harrison in the secondary.

- Cassell has a big arm, obviously you didn't see his 51 yard bomb off of his back foot in week 1. His accuracy and read progression needs to improve, but arm strength is not a problem.

- Moss has been a non-factor because he has a safety rolled on top of him every single play. Yesterday they moved him around more and had him in twin and trip packages, instead of leaving him split out alone.

You should have either asked or watched a Pats game or two before you put up your cash.

****in owned

[mgcolby]

Looks like they are coming along nicely. As an Indy fan, it's brutal to see that the Pats keep reloading with strong young talent. Why can't they hire Matt Millen to run their draft for a couple years, you know, to make it fair for the rest of the league.

I hate the Pats, but I gotta tip my hat to the success they've had under Billy B.

Well you guys draft well also and seemingly win with nothing on Defense. But you guys let to many vets walk and rely heavily on draft picks. But when you have Manning you always have a chance.

The feeling is mutual, I hate Polian think he is a whine ass. But my money loves him!