Promo-Edge Question

[dj_destroyer]

So after finding out from a member here that the UK books allow you to deposit and withdraw freely (he did it everyday with 5000 euros)... I decided to sign up at some and start using my CC daily to build up my points with the reward program. Well, I soon found out my bank charges me $5 to deposit since it's not a true purchase, just the transferring of cash. Anyways, still trying to figure it out... BUT

Ladbrokes has two offers going right now to all players and all bets. The first is that if a NHL player scores a hat-trick these playoffs, all losing bets in that game are refunded. The second is if a NBA game goes to OT, all losing bets in that game are refunded.

Is there a worthwhile edge here playing unders? How much of an edge do these stipulations add?

[Optional]

I wouldn't say the NHL one offers much. Expectation would probably be under in most games left. There were 57 during the regular season if that helps at all.

[dj_destroyer]

I wouldn't say the NHL one offers much. Expectation would probably be under in most games left. There were 57 during the regular season if that helps at all.

57 hat tricks in the regular season? 1230 games, so 4.63% of a hat trick. If a game has a hat trick, there's only a few combinations it stays under (3-0, 3-1, 3-2). I think we need some Poisson distribution here or something.

I agree though, the NHL promo probably adds a negligible edge (<0.5%)

On the other hand, if you're betting the UNDER, the more likely it is to go to OT (let alone a playoff game). So if you do have the under and it's looking good, the OT won't screw you over (no pun intended).

How often do NBA games go to OT? What about playoff games?