OKC VS Dallas Game 3 "The Line"

[TheMoneyShot]

So the line in game 1 was around -7.5 OKC

Then game 2 was around -6.5 OKC

In all essence the line at Dallas should be OKC -1.5, -1, or even PK

Then why is Dallas -3.5???

What does this signify?

Does this mean that when Dallas has home court it's different than any other home court in the NBA? I would say no.

Is it because they are the defending champs... and it's there first home game of the playoffs?

Does it mean Dallas will cream OKC tonight?

I don't recall a line like this before... It's a 10 point swing roughly from Away to Home.

Anyone have any ideas?

What's the play?

[PickWinnerAllDay]

I think the line signifies that OKC never should have been -7.5 and -6.5... they aren't that much better than Dallas.

[thetrinity]

line got bet up already to 3.5

[SparJMU]

I think the line signifies that OKC never should have been -7.5 and -6.5... they aren't that much better than Dallas.

This is the correct answer. Obviously these two teams are much closer than the original spreads. Game 1 should have been around -4 and Game 2 should have been around -3. Now with the switch in home court they are correcting the lines.

[PorkChop]

For the Defending champs at home in a desperate position to only be favored by 3 tells you all you need to know.

Thunder are that much better.

[eleuropeano]

It signifies Dallas covered in both of the first 2 games.

[jmonkres]

As a season ticket holder who has watched all 66 reg season games this season I can tell you Dallas is a completely different team at home than on the road. 23-10 at home and 13-20 on the road. They should have never been 6 and 7 point dogs to being with. I know they arent as good as last year but they know how to grind out games and keep them close, even thought they failed to finish the deal on both occasions. Add in the desperation factor of being down 0-2 and this essentially being a must win for them the line seems about right.

[TheMoneyShot]

So technically vegas screwed up during Games 1 & 2 with the line? So, in all essence in Games 1 & 2 it should of been OKC -3 or -3.5 at home? I'm not really being smart at all... I'm just saying... I don't recall any 10 point swing in an NBA Playoff game without any injuries involved? I will always keep this GAME #3 in mind (with the outcome) for future reference... because there is meaning behind this... and I want to find out why.

I'd like to believe the public always wagers on past Champions... first playoff home games... and hit them hard... even being down 0-2 in the series. But honestly... this game should be PK. But when you adjust the line so drastically like Dallas -3.5... I would like to figure they cover Game 3 but lose Game 4 outright. It's quite interesting to me.

[M.W.]

So technically vegas screwed up during Games 1 & 2 with the line? So, in all essence in Games 1 & 2 it should of been OKC -3 or -3.5 at home? I'm not really being smart at all... I'm just saying... I don't recall any 10 point swing in an NBA Playoff game without any injuries involved? I.

It's not that unusual from game 2 to game 3. It happened in the Mavs' first-round series last year. Mavs were -4 at home in game 2, and Portland opened at -6 for game 3. It got bet down to 5, but it opened at 6 for a 10-point swing.

[BernardMadoff]

Quit thinking game lines are supposed to coincide with the end results, thats not their intended purpose, as the linesmaker doesnt have a clue what the final result will be, its for betting purposes.

[lunchbawks]

Defending champs backs against the wall.. ill take the durant and westbrook combo to school this Dallas team

[BettingWizard]

desperation line bump

[t-wizzle]

You're overanalyzing this.

Must-win game back on Dallas' homefloor. OKC lines were proven to be inflated in the first two games anyway. Line is right on.

[B1GER1C828]

im still taking OKC. Durant hasnt gone off yet, tonight could be the night.

[BigDofBA]

I think Dallas covers. They aren't as bad as their seed.

[bleek88]

Okc here baby!!

[jmbbarata]

Dallas -3

[byronbb]

[GoBlue77]

dallas all day.

[MarkTX]

Sitting outside AAC about to go in to watch this game. I'm going with Dallas here. They should have won game 1 and 2 outright. They will cover this. I'm biased obviously but I am taking Dallas for the game and 1st half. Go Mavs!!!!

[JR007]

line adjustment for public perception

[suicidekings]

So technically vegas screwed up during Games 1 & 2 with the line? So, in all essence in Games 1 & 2 it should of been OKC -3 or -3.5 at home? I'm not really being smart at all... I'm just saying... I don't recall any 10 point swing in an NBA Playoff game without any injuries involved? I will always keep this GAME #3 in mind (with the outcome) for future reference... because there is meaning behind this... and I want to find out why.

I'd like to believe the public always wagers on past Champions... first playoff home games... and hit them hard... even being down 0-2 in the series. But honestly... this game should be PK. But when you adjust the line so drastically like Dallas -3.5... I would like to figure they cover Game 3 but lose Game 4 outright. It's quite interesting to me.

Remember, the linemakers make their money by maintaining a big-picture perspective, not by scrutinizing the outcome of 1-2 games. Their assessment of the matchup is unlikely to change all that much during the series, barring injuries, but situationally, not every game has the same criteria. Defending champs, coming home to where they play MUCH better basketball, and down 2-0 in the series make good reasons the line would slant a little towards the Mavs tonight. It need not say anything about the lines in previous games.

[Monter]

So technically vegas screwed up during Games 1 & 2 with the line? So, in all essence in Games 1 & 2 it should of been OKC -3 or -3.5 at home? I'm not really being smart at all... I'm just saying... I don't recall any 10 point swing in an NBA Playoff game without any injuries involved? I will always keep this GAME #3 in mind (with the outcome) for future reference... because there is meaning behind this... and I want to find out why.

I'd like to believe the public always wagers on past Champions... first playoff home games... and hit them hard... even being down 0-2 in the series. But honestly... this game should be PK. But when you adjust the line so drastically like Dallas -3.5... I would like to figure they cover Game 3 but lose Game 4 outright. It's quite interesting to me.

Vegas didn't mess up at all with the lines for Game 1 & 2. And they haven't messed up at all with the Game 3 line. Linesmakers job is to protect his client. They know that the public will be all over the defending champs Dallas in a "must win game". So how do they protect their client. They inflate the line so that if you are going to bet Dallas you are going to pay a premium. Its that simple brother.