Intrade talk. Intrade has Romney at almost 3/1

[Waterstpub87]

You might be able to arbitrage that if you can get any kind of bets on gas prices, industrial output, or gdp growth. Till then, there are way too many variables to say its a lock. You can probably cover the bet later and guarantee some profit.

[Easy-Rider 66]

LOL, i will bet the rest of my points forever, and ever, as long as i am on sbr if rommney wins overall with independents.

Independents have soured on Obama. The rap on Romney from the far right is that he is a moderate. Watch him move to the middle during the process and get that Independent vote.

[SBR_John]

I'll send a wire on Monday and post when I'm about to place my order. I'll try $3k with the hopes to clear a $1k profit as the race tightens.

[crustyme]

fade

[andywend]

Most of what you said in your post is spot on, but I have to quibble with this. The location a poll originates from has no baring on its results. They don't use local numbers to call from. But my question would be if you believe this flaw to be the case, what in their methodology supports it? What do you think the liberal bias is in the polling methodology that explains the wild swings?

Are you referring to the wild swings in Intrade's prices or the swings in the polls themselves?

Almost all of the polling outfits that show Obama with a double digit lead are polls conducted by ABC News/NY Times/Suffolk Institute (located in Massachusetts) which are all liberally biased. The same thing happens on the republican side with polls being done by Fox News/Rasmussen favoring the republican candidates. Like it or not, the political preference of the company doing the poll has a lot to do with the polling results as they often phrase polling questions to solicit the response they want to receive.

The prices at Intrade are driven solely by money as opposed to polls and have far better predictive value than any poll ever could.

[andywend]

Romney's market
PriceQuantity
$3.82 / Share74 shares
$3.83 / Share101 shares
$3.85 / Share122 shares
$3.86 / Share122 shares
$3.87 / Share33 shares

The problem I see is if you try to buy Romney for a few thousand you move the market considerably and worse if you get a move up and want to sell you will be caught in a very thin market.

Another poster said you can get down 100k with no problem but I don't see it.

John, in your example above, if you bought the 452 shares of Romney at the average price of around $3.85 per share, you would be risking $1,740 to win $2,780.

Remember each share is worth $10 of action NOT $1.

Also, as I said earlier, the traders that are placing the orders that you see on the bid/ask side of each contract don't accurately reflect the amount of shares they would actually be willing to buy or sell at the respective prices.

For example, imagine what would happen if news came out that Obama's birth certificate that he released last year was indeed a forgery. His price would drop from 60 to around 40 or maybe even lower. Therefore, it doesn't make sense to put up an order trying to buy 10,000 Obama contracts @ 60 and have it just sit there and risk getting picked off if something weird happens.

Since Obama is underpriced @ Intrade (Romney being overpriced) as compared to everywhere else, I believe that you could buy as much Romney as you could ever possibly want if you would be willing to pay even 39.

Here is what I do when I want to get a large order filled at the fairest price possible:

Go to the political section of Intrade's forum and create a new thread indicating you want to buy "X" amount of contracts at a specified price. Check back in 24 hours and see if their are any replies. If anyone does reply, you send a private message to that person and work out the details as to the time you want to place the trade. You then go to the contract and one person will submit the order and the other person will fill it immediately thus eliminating any possible time delays where something screwy can happen.

Hope this helps.

[baskets]

Whatever you do, vote for a human this fall.


God save us all.

[boeing power]

If the minorities vote on election day Obama wins easily.

[baskets]

boeing, u ever have one of these Obama dudes date your daughter?


give us some feedback

[Grits n' Gravy]

Things that will happen before Romney becomes president:jj has a full head of his own real hair on his head.tt doesn't need a border patrol mirror to find his balls.sideloaded liking women.

[Grits n' Gravy]

I worked for a company for 2 years. Went to work everyday. Even in blizzards, when even the boss didn't make it. Was told I was going to be promoted to a supervisor position later in the year, due to my hard work.
So I'm at work one day, and the owner asks me to come see him before i leave for the day. Weird, but ok...maybe that promotion is coming my way yay....
Owner, "Jeremy we would like to thank you for the work you did for this company. Unfortunately we are going out of business today. As of 5pm today, this company no longer exists"
Me "Um what just happened here???"
Owner, "We are sorry, we just didn't make it, we are working on printing your last paycheck now"
Me" but I have bills, I need this job"
Owner " Please see Tina for your last check and a reference letter"
Jj, this is why we are on unemployment.
It isn't always about lazy Americans.

Never heard of a McDonalds going under before. You must have been a shitty fry cook to get laid off. There are plenty of jobs out there but you probably feel overqualified and are content to freeload off government.