If You Are Always Looking For Bonuses You Should Not Be Betting

Value Bets · 09-20-05, 03:27 PM

Raiders72001. Could you get me a nice 200% sign up bonus at Playthescore.com. 1 x rollover because i dont use a line service. As we all know only Pros use Line services. Im willing to throw in $1 in order to get my 200% bonus. Pleas help and If you could, please in detail tell me what my rollover requirements are so i can make withdrawal without penalty of my bonus.

Thanks,
VBets

nikosgr · 09-20-05, 03:42 PM

Betting is strictly mathematics.I wellcome all bonuses no matter their height or type.I dont care about rollovers as far as i combine bonuses with surebets.Even if i dont find a surebet, i can accept a 1% loss.The best case senario for me is to have my very first bet lost.The other leg of my surebet will award me.

Value Bets · 09-20-05, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by nikosgr

Betting is strictly mathematics

AMEN !!!!!!!!

When will bettors start to realize this. Unless of course your already a pro witha line service.

raiders72001 · 09-20-05, 04:07 PM

nikosar- Bonus whoring, scalping is a whole different subject. Anyone can take a 20% bonus in two books and bet them against each other looking for a 1/2 point difference and scalping out.

Value Bets- Betting is purely mathematics but getting an extra 2 cents or 1/2 run is unimportant.LOL No wonder why you donate year after year. If you aren't getting the best line you aren't a pro as you claim to be.

Value Bets · 09-20-05, 04:47 PM

Your an IGNORANT **** arent ya. You lose your ass as it is, so whats the sense in getting the best line.

raiders72001 · 09-21-05, 12:14 AM

Getting the best line is the secret to winning. Even a horrible bettor such as yourself can be a winner if you just know how to get the best line.

BAUS · 09-21-05, 12:40 AM

How is "getting the best line" so hard? Open 20 sportsbook accounts, then look at all of them for the "best line".

And how does this correlates to winning $ anyway? Doesn't make any sense...

BAUS

rm18 · 09-21-05, 01:04 AM

I agree with Raiders that anyone can win by getting the best line, as long as you can hit about 50% through line shopping. An example is last night the line at pinnacle is
Redskins +215
Cowboys -235
So the real line is + 225 -225
I offer it at Mansion and get it at +230
So the number I am betting is better than the true line
Saturday I get Purdue at -6.5, most push some lose but I win.
Also you can buy off the 7 in NFL or the 3 in college and get lines better than the true line at pinnacle all the time.

rm18 · 09-21-05, 01:09 AM

Although I disagree with not looking for bonuses, if youwager.com has the best line on the board why not take a $300 free play bonus to bet the line I am going to bet anyway?

raiders72001 · 09-21-05, 01:36 AM

rm hit the nail on the head. I agree that if you are going to get the best number and vig at a book that bonuses do help the bottom line. You do have to take into affect how long it's going to take to hit the rollover and if you are tying up money in a book just to get a rollover.

raiders72001 · 09-21-05, 01:38 AM

How is "getting the best line" so hard?

Impossible to get the best line this way. You have to use the line service here at SBR or pay. Lines are way to volatile to monitor 20 books. Lots of times I see a number on the screen that I like but get shut out becasue I can't get in quick enough and I have a live service.

aceking · 09-21-05, 02:47 AM

the sports event is in the future , anything can happen , how can you say "the best line" will be the winner ?

raiders72001 · 09-21-05, 03:58 AM

If you like a dog and the screen says +6.5 everywhere, all of a sudden a +7 pops up you have to hit it now. Sometimes it'll only last 20 seconds and getting a 1/2 point greatly increases your chances of winning.

SBR_John · 09-22-05, 02:22 AM

BAUS

How is "getting the best line" so hard? ..And how does this correlates to winning $ anyway?

It actually does correlate Baus. Maybe one of the sharps can run down the exact math but getting a 1/2 point in football increases your chances of winning by an avg of about 3%.

raiders72001 · 09-22-05, 05:01 AM

I don't have the data in front of me but I think approx 5 % of the games push. I think I posted the data here a while back at each number. 7 is much higher around 10%.

Playing 100 games at $100 you will risk $10,000

If you are a 50/50 bettor and include the push at -110 vig
Win 47.5 %
Lose 47.5%
Push 5%

Win 47.5 * 100 * .9090 = $4317.75
Lose 47.5 * -100 = -$5000
Push 5% = 0
ROI = -432.25 = - 4.32 %

--------------------
Get the extra 1/2 at -110 and pushes become wins so

Win 52.5%
Lose 47.5%

----------------------------------

If you are better than 50/50 and/or play at reduced vig shops you will win more. Line and vig are the key.

LVHerbie · 09-22-05, 05:07 AM

--------------------
Get the extra 1/2 at -110 and pushes become wins so

Win 52.5%
Lose 47.5%

----------------------------------

Some losing bets will also become pushes...

raiders72001 · 09-22-05, 05:17 AM

Great point

Ganchrow · 09-22-05, 08:31 AM

Originally posted by LVHerbie

--------------------
Get the extra 1/2 at -110 and pushes become wins so

Win 52.5%
Lose 47.5%

----------------------------------

Some losing bets will also become pushes...

Of course, it's an either or situation. EITHER the original line was an integer in which case the extra half point causes some pushes to become wins OR the original line was not an integer in which case the extra half point will cause some losses to become pushes.

Ganchrow · 09-22-05, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I don't have the data in front of me but I think approx 5 % of the games push. I think I posted the data here a while back at each number. 7 is much higher around 10%.

--------------------
Get the extra 1/2 at -110 and pushes become wins so

Win 52.5%
Lose 47.5%

----------------------------------

If you are better than 50/50 and/or play at reduced vig shops you will win more. Line and vig are the key.

Stanford Wong discusses this situation in detail in Chapter 14 of Sharp Sports Betting.

Clearly, just as you say, the probability of a push becoming a win or loss becoming a push differs from point to point. Obviously there's a much greater chance of that happening going from 2.5 to 3 or 3 to 3.5 than from 8.5 to 9 or 9 to 9.5.

Here's a table of approximate probabilities of pushes for the NFL (Reproduced from Table 20 of Sharp Sports Betting):

Spread Freq
0 0%
1 2%
2 2%
3 10%
4 3%
5 2%
6 4%
7 6%
8 2%
9 1%
10 4%
11 2%
12 1%
13 2%
14 6%
15 2%
16 4%
17 6%

xxxlhxxx · 03-20-08, 08:30 AM

I'm not agree with author of this thread... bonuses are not for gamble but for free money in Your pocket .. just You need to thing how You can use it.

IHeartMMA · 06-16-08, 05:13 PM

I can see this guy's point. For instance, on BetUS.com I receive Free Play bonuses and used those bonuses to bet on MMA. However, betting on MMA does not count toward the "action" you need to play before withdrawing money. The betting action needs to be on the four "major" sports: football, baseball, basketball, hockey. It's kind of weird that you can use your free play bonuses on MMA yet bets on MMA won't count toward the action you need to withdraw. With a $50 withdrawal fee though, most people probably won't want to withdraw often anyway.

Otters27 · 06-16-08, 06:11 PM

the days of bonus hunting is over. They are too hard to clear and come with too many stipulations.

I used to clear $100 bonus at party poker in 4 hours. Then cash out. And go to Empire poker and do the same thing. Then go on my wifes account and clear again and so on. Those days are just long gone.