4/21 UFC 145 MMA Max Wager!!! Who's ready to POUND???

Vaughany · 04-16-12, 10:44 AM

Good luck bro...dont know what to make of the Torres/Mcdonald fight, on one hand I see McDonald having his way standing and catching Torres and dropping him. On other hand I see this being a fight where McDonald's lack of experience and tendency to tire in second half of fights catching up on him and getting caught...and being "schooled" by the vet.

I'll be arbing out of some of my Jones plays...will wait tho as I think Evans will reach at least +450 closer to fight time. Might just play TKO prop as well.

Would love to see a vid of the set-up on Sat...looks like an awesome thing to do

BIGDAY · 04-16-12, 10:51 AM

I honestly don't know what I'm more excited for.. The Fights or just watching it in my backyard with about a dozen college pals. I'll post the vid probably a couple hours before the fights.

Wanna Bet On It? · 04-16-12, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

MICHAEL MCDONALD (Risking 5 Units) @EV

- Hoping line creeps back in the + territory but I have him the favorite. Torres will not have is normal advantages in this fight and I love how well McDonald mixes his striking perfectly.

Rashad Evens (Risking 1 Unit) @+405.

- Call me crazy but a also think this one has a change at seeing the distance @+240. Rashad is a fighter that stays out of trouble with his movement. I doubt Evens gets tied up in Jones's dangerous clinch game and if he does I see him able to take down the champ. I am most likely going to add to this wager as I see the general public will be pounding Jones. Most people hate Evens's attitude and would love for Jones to crush him. I think Jones should only be around -250. We may see Rashad close to +500 by fight time... I am interested to see Jones in rounds 3-5, has been untested for the most part in these later rounds and I think Rashad stays busy.

Most likely will be adding to this card by fight night. Have a big party planed. Going to be doing an outdoor 14ft screen and HD projector again. Built a new deck this past weekend. Just added 440 square feet to my deck. Might do a video of set up on Saturday. Here is the photo of last year when I had it set up. I've posted this one a few times. Here's to hoping it doesn't snow this weekend!

Have a great week boys.
[ATTACH]41142[/ATTACH]

I refuse to endorse this thread until such a video surfaces.

BOL on Rashad. I think there's value on 'Shad and will bet him up moderate... already have 1.5U. Rashad is a different fighter stylistically than all of Jon Jones' previous opponents (none were wrestlers with explosive DLs & excellent footwork; if they were wrestlers, they were plodding like Hamill, O'Brien, etc. which is murderous against Jones). Never, ever bet on a -500 favourite when his opponent has a potential clear path to victory. While Rashad could catch Jones like he did to Chuck in ATL, I don't see Jones engaging Rashad like Chuck did at that distance... Rashad's clear path in a wrestle-heavy, top control-heavy, scramble-heavy fight that taxes Jones. Rashad has the better base, with Rashad's offensive wrestling superior to Jones' defensive wrestling IMHO. I still fear for Rashad's life if Jones can clinch TD 'Shad and either cut him open with elbows or sink in a choke if Rashad over-commits to defending from ground strikes/scrambling. But I'm not about to bet on Jones at bloated odds... I don't see any value there.

I haven't watched much tape on MacDonald vs Torres but I'm leaning the other way small-moderate. MacDonald has fought cans in the UFC: Soto, Figueroa, comethefuckon. Apparently he was injured in the Figueroa fight so I'll cut him some slack but his striking is elite level and he doesn't have a strong top control game to steal rounds from Miguel like MM did. I have 1U on Torres and will probably not budge unless I dig through the crates. JMO.

BIGDAY · 04-16-12, 11:01 AM

Seeing Rashad's wrestling against Davis was the comfort in this selection as well. I think rounds 3-5 Rashad can take Jones down. Just how I see it. Like I said, I will be adding to Sugar as he might get close to +500. Another unit or 2 most likely.

Wanna Bet On It? · 04-16-12, 11:02 AM

Sorry, meant that MacDonald's striking isn't elite.

I'd like to dig up his loss to post-osteomyelitis Cole Escovedo. That is a pretty soft TKO loss on paper and I'd like to see how that went down...

Miguel Torres isn't the world beater he once was but he's still top 5-10 at BW and I wouldn't bet against him at evens odds except against a wrestler with excellent top control, the champ, Alpha Males, or an even better striker/grappler like Barao.

Bagalut · 04-16-12, 11:03 AM

Im going with Torres aswell. Don´t see Mcdonald knocking Torres out easily and think Torres will take this one to the ground and submit Mcdonald with ease.

5mike5 · 04-16-12, 11:06 AM

ill be on suga as well...WAY too much value here at +400 and probably higer as they days go by

Beelzebubzy · 04-16-12, 11:14 AM

Dont see how Rashad wins unless he catches Jones with a fluke punch. Using the V school of thought, I would wait for Rashad by KO or KOTN.

I am playing KO of the night for Shad. I have alot of Jones inside the distance but would not mind losing my pennies for Rashad. The primetime show has turned me into a Jones hater and Rashad fan

JAKEPEAVY21 · 04-16-12, 11:24 AM

good luck, bigday and enjoy the festivities with your pals

helpplease · 04-16-12, 12:06 PM

Jones deserves to be -900 .. that is all

Beelzebubzy · 04-16-12, 12:50 PM

Torres is at +50 fights in his career, could be on the verge of being shopworn, plus he is 30+, BWs careers are not that long.

BIGDAY · 04-16-12, 12:56 PM

Yes, McDonald is young. No worries. All this kid has done his entire life is fought. This is a young kid with all upside. He's ready. Torres will slowly fade. IMO, has already started.

BIGDAY · 04-16-12, 12:59 PM

Part of my success in MMA is finding where popular fighters start their decline at a good price. At 135lbs don't count young fighters out.

Noles1992 · 04-16-12, 01:57 PM

Thanks for your input as always BIGDAY! As much as I like Jones, its hard to pass up on Evans @ +500 for a bit. GL!

raydog · 04-16-12, 02:39 PM

reach kills... evans gets destroyed due to it...dont throw your mcdonald units away on evans...there is a reason why the price keeps going up... i would at least wait till after the mcdonald fight to bet this if you are...a lot easier throwing units away when you are ahead...mcdonald loses and no chance i would touch this one..(ps.why bet now if you feel the line keeps moving up? btw, books not feeling generous, they need rashad action and need a lot of it) gl bd

sirchadwick1 · 04-16-12, 04:32 PM

I understand your thinking on Evans... but damn, I just can't picture him winning this. Bones has just tooled everyone in the octagon for the most part. And almost a 1 ft reach advantage

Rashad only had his way w/ Phil on the ground because he was caught off guard expecting Evans to strike w/ him the whole time w/ the wrestling canceling out. It was great gameplanning by Rashad and a bold move. But I think Bones will be just fine in the later rounds and will eventually get the TKO. Motivated Bones is pretty scary... and I think he's out to prove something.

On Bones at -400 for 8u

the josh · 04-16-12, 04:47 PM

rashad decision is +930. if he rocks jones, i think jones has the greco/wrestling to clinch/td and give himself time to get clearheaded.

threw a unit on it.

still think jones takes this though, ill have his line maxxed by fight time.

CarpeDime · 04-16-12, 04:50 PM

WOW bigday like evans!!!

I was wondering about this line, it's a classic matchup of "Awesome" vs "no slouch"

just shot the preview with Nick Kalikas, he says he will wind up needing Jones and that he wants it that way!

jjgold · 04-16-12, 04:56 PM

When are these fights?

BIGDAY · 04-16-12, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

When are these fights?

This Saturday coach. Should be a great entertaining PPV IMO.

sweep · 04-16-12, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

When are these fights?

Do you read the thread topics??? Says 4/21 in headline you prikk

Vaughany · 04-16-12, 05:27 PM

lol

getlucky2win · 04-16-12, 06:09 PM

i dont think evans has much of a chance for a ko or sub. i can c him winning a dec with his lay n pray wrestling keeping jones down. jones -500 and evans by dec +930 is what im thinkin of betting

Kaladarus · 04-16-12, 06:19 PM

Good luck with this play. I will also be play Evans small. He's trained with Jones and knows his style well. Jones' opponents in the past have had trouble getting in on him because of his length. Evans may be used to the length and able to adjust to it because of their training. Watching him talk about the Rampage fight he seems to know exactly what needs to be done.

getlucky2win · 04-16-12, 06:26 PM

machida didnt seem to have a problem n 1st rnd but 2nd rnd dif story. guys say they have 2 get inside on jones but cant do it. then in the clinch jones is very good. knowing what to do and being able to do it are very dif

DeFactoCrippler · 04-16-12, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

Good luck with this play. I will also be play Evans small. He's trained with Jones and knows his style well. Jones' opponents in the past have had trouble getting in on him because of his length. Evans may be used to the length and able to adjust to it because of their training. Watching him talk about the Rampage fight he seems to know exactly what needs to be done.

Some great discussion going on in this thread. I'm just curious as to what makes you believe Rashad will be able to get inside on Jones when he wasn't able to even get close to Machida? On top of that, everyone believed Machida to be a "master" of distance, and if anyone would be able to close the distance on Jones, it would be him. He did manage to tag Jones once, but that was about it.

ChuckyTheGoat · 04-17-12, 01:17 AM

Giddyup. I'm on McDonald.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57kHFXElTVI

BIGDAY · 04-17-12, 08:00 AM

EV is the best you'll find it. Line will most likely keep dropping. McDonald should be the Fav.

Don't wait til Saturday!

sweep · 04-17-12, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

EV is the best you'll find it. Line will most likely keep dropping. McDonald should be the Fav.

Don't wait til Saturday!

POUND!POUND!POUND!

BIGDAY · 04-17-12, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by sweep

POUND!POUND!POUND!

Pound Pound Pounding baby!!!

sweep · 04-17-12, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Pound Pound Pounding baby!!!

DirtyX · 04-17-12, 10:28 AM

I am also really liking McDonald against Torres in this. Laying down five units as well, at even odds.. This kid is a rising star, and after this win over Torres, he will likely never be close to even odds again, unless fighting the top five (Benevidez,Cruz, Faber, or Bowells, Etc.) I only see Torres winning via a close fought decision (which def. could happen) but imo, Torres must win on sheer heart alone (which he has the ability to do), however I think McDonald will be too much for him. In other words, I don't see Torres stopping McDonald. Torres is a warrior, and has a lot of heart, but I think his prime is past him, and he is on a slow decline. This kid has been fighting his whole life and has ten years of youth on Miquel, but he isn't green like some other 21 year kid that just started training. The kid has lived in the gym since he was 13. He is a future star imo, and at even odds, it's a steal. GL everyone.

Vaughany · 04-17-12, 10:56 AM

One thing that would concern me if going big on McDonald is that he is still at Oakdale MMA and not exactly sparring and working with many high-level guys. This doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't evolving, he says he is still being challenged there and intends to stay loyal to his gym for rest of his career.

DirtyX · 04-17-12, 11:26 AM

Good point.. Doing more research, now. Thanks.