You guys want to know who will win the election?

[Brock Landers]

http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/

Check out my friends website, Prof Sheldon Jacobson at U OF I, by far the smartest person i've ever known, has it all right here, Math doesn't lie...

Obama without a doubt

[flyingillini]

Sheldon!

[Brock Landers]

Sheldon!

you know him?

Smartest fvckin guy i ever met

[wtf]

didnt a bunch of smart people also make the investment portfolios for lehman brothers?

[durito]

didnt a bunch of smart people also make the investment portfolios for lehman brothers?

Yep.

And those people mostly walked away with millions of dollars of bonuses.

[Brock Landers]

didnt a bunch of smart people also make the investment portfolios for lehman brothers?

they weren't PHD's, i can almost guarantee that, anyway, his page is simple, consice and uses statistics and probability, 80%+ chance Obama wins

[mathdotcom]

" This web site has been developed by computer science and political science students at the University of Illinois."

B.S. website
Relies on poll data (problematic), and there are just too many swing states to make a solid forecast.

On a side note, I think McCain will end relatively stronger than Obama when the latter is forced to actually take stands on positions. Of course the analysis on the site has nothing to do with the future and doesn't claim to predict the actual president, just who is leading now.

[mathdotcom]

And poli sci students are total phuckin morons.

[flyingillini]

illini

[jjgold]

Well the betting line says Obama easy so this guy really not going out on a limb but just taking chalk.

[mathdotcom]

Somehow I doubt this prof would be all over Obama, even at -140 or whatever he's at now, even though his analysis suggests Obama should be -600.

[wtf]

u r right

Yep.

And those people mostly walked away with millions of dollars of bonuses.

your right, it makes me ill to think about the people that got ruined while they lined their pockets.

but you remember long term credit? they had a noble prize winner, developed the black shoales model. they went bust, lost billions.

[Wheell]

Let me get this straight, if the election moves towards McCain New York becomes a swing state and Colorado doesn't?

Fail.

[Seattle Slew]

I think Virginia is the key state in this election. If Obama carries that state, it's just about over for McCain, even if he carries Ohio and Florida.

Obama has 247 electoral votes that are "safe" at this point, which is all the states Kerry won except New Hampshire. He's expected to win Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5) that went GOP in 2004. If he wins Virginia (13), game over, even without Ohio, New Hampshire and Florida.

[topgame85]

I live in VA and Obama won't win it but it will be very close he will lose probably 48-49.5, northern VA he wins but our hillbilly racists down south will vote for mccain at about 90% clip

[Brock Landers]

Right now its about as close to a mortal lock as anything that Obama will win, see the update stats as of today...