Hey everyone! Once again posting the write-ups from my newsletter... ask me if you want to sign up and you can get these emailed to you every Friday morning!
SUNDAY
Atlanta (+6.5) @ Carolina (-6.5)
Never would have guessed that Atlanta's quest to regain respectability would have been going so well so early, they really have taken strides and look much better then the hapless team they were last year. That being said, I think this is a tough spot for them; hitting the road isn't easy for a rookie QB, and after Carolina squandered an early 10 - 0 lead @ Minnesota, I think they are going to be extra-focused from start to finish in this one on both sides of the ball.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
Arizona (+1.0) @ New York Jets (-1.0)
Absolutely no reason at all the Jets should be favored here. None. This spread tells me that there is still a lot of respect for Brett Favre, and people expect New York at home to finally turn the corner and step up for a big win. I just don't see it. Arizona has a solid secondary that won't let Favre get away with his antics. They also have an offense that shouldn't have trouble moving the ball if the Jets defense in the San Diego game is any indication. I like the Cards here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona
Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
I'm 100% sure whichever team I pick here is going to lose. It's just one of those games. I'm going to take Cleveland though; I simply can not believe their offense is as anemic as it has looked so far this season. Maybe the Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore defenses have just made it look this bad? Then again, what's to say Cincy won't pound this team like everyone else has? It is too hard to say. But in a game I'd consider a total coin flip, I have to TAKE the points instead of give them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
Minnesota (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Very interesting game here that could be trouble, but I'm not picking against Tennessee until they show some signs of weakness. Minnesota will NOT get away with throwing the ball deep on Tennessee like they did against Carolina, and if anyone can stop Minnesota's deadly rushing game, it is this stingy D. Giving up only a FG at home, they are the pick here I think.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Green Bay (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay (-1.0)
I respect Tampa Bay as much as anyone... but this is a little too much respect. GB loses a game to the best team in football and all of a sudden everyone has fallen out of love with them? Losing Harris was a HUGE blow to this team, don't get me wrong, but I don't think Brian Greise is the guy that is going to exploit this. I think Green Bay finds a way to win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
San Francisco (+5.0) @ New Orleans (-5.0)
San Francisco has looked pretty damn good in this young season, but I'm still not a believer. They got a ton of favorable bounces in the Seattle game, and Detroit looks pretty useless (again) this year. New Orleans is dealing with the injury bug big time, but I think they have enough firepower to win this game at home by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
Houston (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0)
I wanted to take Houston here, but I just can't. Houston got beat up on the road against Pittsburgh, then they headed to Tennessee and got beat up on both sides of the ball again. Now they travel AGAIN to a tough team coming fresh off an impressive upset in Indy. This Houston team has to be reeling right now, and I think Jacksonville gets back to .500 in convincing fashion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
Denver (-9.5) @ Kansas City (+9.5)
This is one of those games. Denver has looked unstoppable on offense - their passing game hasn't clicked like this in years. Kansas City meanwhile has looked totally useless this season on both sides of the ball and no one in their right mind would pick them. So what am I going to do? Pick them. Denver goes in overconfident, Kansas City comes in frustrated and playing for their pride in front of an angry Arrowhead crowd. No idea how, but Kansas City finds a way to keep this close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
Buffalo (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)
I really, really want to pick St. Louis for the exact same reasons as I picked KC, but I just can't. I visualize final scores in my head and they never, ever come up close. Buffalo is just too good on defense to let this team score on them, and St. Louis has been too miserable on defense to stop anybody. This team is in REALLY bad shape. Yes, I know KC is too, but that is a division rivalry. St. Louis is just in REALLY bad shape.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
San Diego (-8.0) @ Oakland (+8.0)
I hate this game because just like the Cleveland game, I know I'm going to lose it no matter which way I pick. I really hate myself for picking Oakland after I had San Diego typed out, but really, this Merriman-less team has not looked good on defense at all and maybe, just maybe, this is the game that Jamarcus spreads his wings. Also, if we throw out the Denver game and the last quarter of the Buffalo game, the Raiders defense has shown it is capable of being very, very good. I can't get the score SD 38 - OAK 7 out of my head, but despite that, I'm going to take the points at home here and home the A-squad defense shows up this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
I'm just stocking up on big point underdogs this week! Okay, is Dallas the best team in the NFL? Probably. Are they very capable of winning this game by 4 or 5 touchdowns? Absolutely. But Washington has already done a pretty respectable job keeping New York, Arizona, and New Orleans in close games; and this is a division rivalry game. As much as I respect Dallas, I don't think Washington rolls over here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
This is very interesting. Almost feels like a trap. Chicago has kept things close against Carolina and Tampa Bay; two games they probably should have won, actually. Chicago was -3.0 in both of those games. Now, against a healthy McNabb, they are only +3.0 here. Am I underrating Chicago too much, or are the books/public overrating them too much? This week will clear that up a little; but I for one think Philly wins by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
MONDAY
Baltimore (+5.0) @ Pittsburgh (-5.0)
This one is really tough because Baltimore has looked so good and Pittsburgh has looked very ordinary for two straight weeks. That said, this will be Baltimore's first road game, and I'm also expecting Pittsburgh's offense to explode one of these days. Not an easy task against Baltimore's defense, but an overdue Pittsburgh offense + a rookie QB in his first road game against a division rival on Monday Night, its enough for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
Good Luck!
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 10 - 6 - 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 - 4 - 0 (.200)
Season
With the spread: 23 - 23 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 27 - 20 - 0 (.574)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 - 1 - 0 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 4 - 11 - 0 (.267)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
Last Week
With the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 10 - 6 - 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 - 4 - 0 (.200)
Season
With the spread: 23 - 23 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 27 - 20 - 0 (.574)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 - 1 - 0 (.750)
**Outright Upsets**: 4 - 11 - 0 (.267)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
SUNDAY
Atlanta (+6.5) @ Carolina (-6.5)
Never would have guessed that Atlanta's quest to regain respectability would have been going so well so early, they really have taken strides and look much better then the hapless team they were last year. That being said, I think this is a tough spot for them; hitting the road isn't easy for a rookie QB, and after Carolina squandered an early 10 - 0 lead @ Minnesota, I think they are going to be extra-focused from start to finish in this one on both sides of the ball.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
Arizona (+1.0) @ New York Jets (-1.0)
Absolutely no reason at all the Jets should be favored here. None. This spread tells me that there is still a lot of respect for Brett Favre, and people expect New York at home to finally turn the corner and step up for a big win. I just don't see it. Arizona has a solid secondary that won't let Favre get away with his antics. They also have an offense that shouldn't have trouble moving the ball if the Jets defense in the San Diego game is any indication. I like the Cards here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona
Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
I'm 100% sure whichever team I pick here is going to lose. It's just one of those games. I'm going to take Cleveland though; I simply can not believe their offense is as anemic as it has looked so far this season. Maybe the Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore defenses have just made it look this bad? Then again, what's to say Cincy won't pound this team like everyone else has? It is too hard to say. But in a game I'd consider a total coin flip, I have to TAKE the points instead of give them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
Minnesota (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Very interesting game here that could be trouble, but I'm not picking against Tennessee until they show some signs of weakness. Minnesota will NOT get away with throwing the ball deep on Tennessee like they did against Carolina, and if anyone can stop Minnesota's deadly rushing game, it is this stingy D. Giving up only a FG at home, they are the pick here I think.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Green Bay (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay (-1.0)
I respect Tampa Bay as much as anyone... but this is a little too much respect. GB loses a game to the best team in football and all of a sudden everyone has fallen out of love with them? Losing Harris was a HUGE blow to this team, don't get me wrong, but I don't think Brian Greise is the guy that is going to exploit this. I think Green Bay finds a way to win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
San Francisco (+5.0) @ New Orleans (-5.0)
San Francisco has looked pretty damn good in this young season, but I'm still not a believer. They got a ton of favorable bounces in the Seattle game, and Detroit looks pretty useless (again) this year. New Orleans is dealing with the injury bug big time, but I think they have enough firepower to win this game at home by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
Houston (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0)
I wanted to take Houston here, but I just can't. Houston got beat up on the road against Pittsburgh, then they headed to Tennessee and got beat up on both sides of the ball again. Now they travel AGAIN to a tough team coming fresh off an impressive upset in Indy. This Houston team has to be reeling right now, and I think Jacksonville gets back to .500 in convincing fashion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
Denver (-9.5) @ Kansas City (+9.5)
This is one of those games. Denver has looked unstoppable on offense - their passing game hasn't clicked like this in years. Kansas City meanwhile has looked totally useless this season on both sides of the ball and no one in their right mind would pick them. So what am I going to do? Pick them. Denver goes in overconfident, Kansas City comes in frustrated and playing for their pride in front of an angry Arrowhead crowd. No idea how, but Kansas City finds a way to keep this close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
Buffalo (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)
I really, really want to pick St. Louis for the exact same reasons as I picked KC, but I just can't. I visualize final scores in my head and they never, ever come up close. Buffalo is just too good on defense to let this team score on them, and St. Louis has been too miserable on defense to stop anybody. This team is in REALLY bad shape. Yes, I know KC is too, but that is a division rivalry. St. Louis is just in REALLY bad shape.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
San Diego (-8.0) @ Oakland (+8.0)
I hate this game because just like the Cleveland game, I know I'm going to lose it no matter which way I pick. I really hate myself for picking Oakland after I had San Diego typed out, but really, this Merriman-less team has not looked good on defense at all and maybe, just maybe, this is the game that Jamarcus spreads his wings. Also, if we throw out the Denver game and the last quarter of the Buffalo game, the Raiders defense has shown it is capable of being very, very good. I can't get the score SD 38 - OAK 7 out of my head, but despite that, I'm going to take the points at home here and home the A-squad defense shows up this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
I'm just stocking up on big point underdogs this week! Okay, is Dallas the best team in the NFL? Probably. Are they very capable of winning this game by 4 or 5 touchdowns? Absolutely. But Washington has already done a pretty respectable job keeping New York, Arizona, and New Orleans in close games; and this is a division rivalry game. As much as I respect Dallas, I don't think Washington rolls over here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
This is very interesting. Almost feels like a trap. Chicago has kept things close against Carolina and Tampa Bay; two games they probably should have won, actually. Chicago was -3.0 in both of those games. Now, against a healthy McNabb, they are only +3.0 here. Am I underrating Chicago too much, or are the books/public overrating them too much? This week will clear that up a little; but I for one think Philly wins by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
MONDAY
Baltimore (+5.0) @ Pittsburgh (-5.0)
This one is really tough because Baltimore has looked so good and Pittsburgh has looked very ordinary for two straight weeks. That said, this will be Baltimore's first road game, and I'm also expecting Pittsburgh's offense to explode one of these days. Not an easy task against Baltimore's defense, but an overdue Pittsburgh offense + a rookie QB in his first road game against a division rival on Monday Night, its enough for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
Good Luck!
