Week 2 Aussie Rules Football leans and discussion..

[Bbr]

Very windy as well in melb atm

[brettels]

Wait till tomorrow for having a weather freak for totals. It should be fine, no rain tomorrow.

[Domestic]

Massive card tomorrow, five games. Make sure you are well rested for it.

[maroona]

Adelaide -30.5 ?? not sure they're that good, bulldogs have won their last 4 games against the crows and last 3 at AAMI stadium, 30 point start seems way too many unless i'm missing something

[MatI]

Melbourne tomorrow - Cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning. Winds SW 25 to 35 km/h turning S/SE and becoming light in the late afternoon. Chance of any rainfall: 60% Rainfall: 0. 2 to 1 mm Low-Moderate.

Wind is blowing a gale here in melbourne right now, but forecast tips it will die down by late arvo. 35km/h is still considerably lower than it is blowing right now. Rain will not be too heavy and shouldn't have too much of an effect.

Either way, wind will not effect the game at Etihad and will have completely died down by the time the late game starts at the G.

Stick with the overs.

[k13]

Sat 4/7 913 Greater Western Sydney +78½ -110 +2000
11:15PM 914 North Melbourne Kangaroos -78½ -110 -4000

Do they even have a chance?


Funny lines on some of these.

[Domestic]

Sat 4/7 913 Greater Western Sydney +78½ -110 +2000
11:15PM 914 North Melbourne Kangaroos -78½ -110 -4000

Do they even have a chance?


Funny lines on some of these.

ML and Spread seems about right.

[shari91]

Sat 4/7 913 Greater Western Sydney +78½ -110 +2000
11:15PM 914 North Melbourne Kangaroos -78½ -110 -4000

Do they even have a chance?


Funny lines on some of these.

I'm really tempted to take the GWS spread and probably will. But then again I know nothing about North. Couldn't even name one player other than Boomer.

[k13]

I'm really tempted to take the GWS spread and probably will. But then again I know nothing about North. Couldn't even name one player other than Boomer.

Is there a lot of big upsets in the AFL?

[shari91]

Is there a lot of big upsets in the AFL?

No. There are upsets but this would be like a group of 6 year olds beating the Lakers. And dunking on them repeatedly.

GWS is a new team. That's why the spread is so large. But that's also why I'm trying to get some dirt on North because they were ok last year but not stellar. Each goal is 6 pts. To give a team a 13 goal handicap is massive to me.

[Domestic]

The main thing with GWS is that the majority of their team is young, they have plenty of teenagers and just don't have the physical fitness both in terms of strength and endurance to match any other AFL team for the full four quarters yet. That is why it is almost impossible for them to win against 80% of the other teams in the AFL at the moment.
That being said they put in an impressive performance against Sydney in their first game but Sydney just had them beat for fitness.

[Bbr]

^do not agree on endurance. Younger players have greater endurance. In terms of fitness u can't determine that yet so that's not comparable. I agree worth you in relation to physicality though. Gws are simply nor big enough

[garygroundwork]

correct they don't have big enough bodies yet to match it with the the good sides for 4 quarters. As the game wears on they get knocked off the ball too easily and smashed at the stopages which is where games are won and lost now days.

[ACoochy]

Guys,

Havent misread a LEAN as much as i did with the Lions thursday night for around a year . Apologees again to anyone that played it. As a result i feel compelled to try and 'do right' by u guys so below below are plays for this round...

Guys i implore that if ur gonna tail then play ONLY the plays in Spreadsheet. . Be warned however that ive been on a tear for last 6 months so regression is due to bite me sooner rather than later...

Adelaide -29.5. 1unit.
Yes it is true that the bulldogs have beaten the crows last 4 straight but these are two teams that currently are headed in different directions at differing stages of form...Crows forward line will hopefully be the difference here and wouldnt be surprised if this becomes a blowout for the crows at home. Fact that bullies are on a 4 game streakagainst adelaide makes me want to pound this harder (as variance is bound to kick in sooner rather than later) but will refrain this early in the season. GL

Port Adelaide Power +25.5 1unit.
Both sides head into this game in relatively good form. Power have lifted their game from last season and if they can hold it throughout majority of season can see them vying for one of last couple of spots in top 8. Believe Essendon will win but more than 4 goals is too much of a head start imo. GL

Hawthorn Hawks -11.5 1unit
The Cats will be without their star defender for mondays blockbuster at the G. Against most sides id say this wasnt a problem for the Cats as they have deep depth in their squad but with Cyril Rioli and Lance Franklin in form am expecting their forward pressure to crack Geelongs Defence late in the game. Can see this being a 4 goal win here for the Hawks.

Well guys there u have it. Do what you will with it but this is what im on this week. Good luck to everyone here and if i dont give input for next couple of days its cos im out bush, enjoying easter long weekend

Good luck everyone and may u all enjoy these easter holidays

[raydog]

reading that adelaide is probably the healthiest group out there, deep and in great form...can see this one getting out of hand...bulldogs confidence has to be shot...

adelaide -29.5 for me boyz

[k13]

I might actually watch one of these AFL games tomorrow. Seem more exciting than the Rugby league thing.

[Lookingtostart]

^do not agree on endurance. Younger players have greater endurance. In terms of fitness u can't determine that yet so that's not comparable. I agree worth you in relation to physicality though. Gws are simply nor big enough

I disagree completely. Young players = fitter, "in their prime" players = better endurance. Young teams usually have trouble running out the game.

[Lookingtostart]

I might actually watch one of these AFL games tomorrow. Seem more exciting than the Rugby league thing.

Watch the Eagles game! Yes, I barrack for them but they're an exciting team with plenty to watch out for, they have some serious style.

Don't watch Collingwood games because you'll get confused (even more so) with what the rules are.

[k13]

Watch the Eagles game! Yes, I barrack for them but they're an exciting team with plenty to watch out for, they have some serious style.

Don't watch Collingwood games because you'll get confused (even more so) with what the rules are.

I think that's at 2:45 am here so I'll have to pass but I'll watch the Kangaroos game.

[Gee]

Aw man, I am definitely against you on both Essendon and Geelong.

1.5 and 1 respectively.

I'll probably be with you on Adelaide and sprinkle some overs when they come out at the Aussie/Euro books.

GL this weekend. I'll be at a wedding, so not watching much and following on my phone

[therealdealau]

good luck ACoochy, really like the Hawks bet - i think fading the Hawks any time this year will prove -EV

I'm going to roll with my dockers today, good luck all

[MatI]

I think only bet365 is out... Swans/Dockers at 166.5. That probably means some horrific weather is looking likely?? I see rain is forecast. If thats the case, be wary of the Dockers. I'll be on Sydney. We don't get much rain over here and I'll take the Swans over Freo in a wet weather grind any day.

This was 166.5 last night?? Up to 176.5 now @ b365 and 180.5 @ Centrbet. I think this is awesome even at 176.5.

[Domestic]

This was 166.5 last night?? Up to 176.5 now @ b365 and 180.5 @ Centrbet. I think this is awesome even at 176.5.

Yeah, I got it at 179.5, still confident, we'll see how it goes.

[Aussports]

Unsure if i should play port +25.5 or bombers under 39.5
Round 23 last year was close between these two, and port has found some fire to start the season and look motivated, however seem to suffer from unforced errors.
Interesting that port has won 6 of the last 7 against essendon

[MatI]

Yeah, I got it at 179.5, still confident, we'll see how it goes.

Where did you get that?

[Lookingtostart]

I think that's at 2:45 am here so I'll have to pass but I'll watch the Kangaroos game.

DON'T! You'll be turned off!

Watch the Adelaide vs Bulldogs game, it should be at a good time for you guys.

[Domestic]

Where did you get that?

Centrebet.

EDIT: Looks like it snow 180.5 there now

[MatI]

Centrebet.

ok, thanks mate, im just making sure line is still moving up at all books. B365 has already moved from 176.5 to 178.5 so i've jumped on it before it gets to 180. I've also taken the Freo spread @ 7.5.

[garygroundwork]

DON'T! You'll be turned off!

Watch the Adelaide vs Bulldogs game, it should be at a good time for you guys.

eaxactly, it will be dull and boring as bat shit.

As lts said watch adelaide v bulldogs better still geelong v hawthorn Monday

[therealdealau]

mumford out for sydney, good news freo backers

[Bbr]

Frei first half but Sydney with the legs in the second. Extended rest for swans and Freo travelling coast to coast after an intense cats game

[Coopertrooper]

Sounds good realdeal, I jumped on when the line was paying a health 1.95 for 2 units, it is down to 1.70 already! Mumford being out is going to have a massive impact, especially with Seaby having not had much AFL exposure in the past couple of years.

[Coopertrooper]

And GL to all, have a happy and safe easter!

[therealdealau]

Sounds good realdeal, I jumped on when the line was paying a health 1.95 for 2 units, it is down to 1.70 already! Mumford being out is going to have a massive impact, especially with Seaby having not had much AFL exposure in the past couple of years.

Sydney will still be extremely tough, but Freo have clearly a superior edge in the ruck now so if they can take advantage of that they will be deadly. Good luck mate!

[Bbr]

Sprinkled a bit on freo/sydney +550