How do you approach a game?

[SpyDerMonKey]

I have only been betting for a couple of months, but I am wanting to learn to handicap on my own. I am curious as to what approach do you take when handicapping, do you give points for certain stats? Like I said I dont want to have to rely on others to make picks and trail them, I want to learn to handicap myself.

Thanks for any help

[SpyDerMonKey]

ok, guess Im on my own!

[HoulihansTX]

Since its basketball season, two most important stats for myself are rebounds, and turnovers. Most importantly offensive rebounds.

[TheMoneyShot]

Look for highly wagered National TV games. Like NBA on ABC Sunday's. Watch money flow. Public tends to hammer a side... for example New York Knicks +3. People were hammering the line so hard some books were posting PK/PK at game time. Technically you would take the other side Boston. (Less money on the team). It's not rocket science. It also doesn't work every single time... but I would say 70% of the time it does. You must stick to a system... and never give up on it. If you continuously lose... your system wasn't thought out effectively.

[o5miley]

everything.. stats are okay but stats are average so you can't use that to determine a certain game... i would look @ mismatches, injuries, recently played games, last game played against each other, uhm look for if the line is soft and why it's soft (usually lines are based off of statistical averages & last games played) , you can compare what kind of style the teams play, you can even go up to handicapping based on coaches

[Wrecktangle]

Easy.

1. get data
2. build model with data
3. test model against historical record
4. bet projected winners if win rate above 55%

Don't need to watch no stinking games, messes with your head anyway.

[SpyDerMonKey]

Thanks for all the help, Im just learning to handicapp, but I am picking up alot from this site

[illfuuptn]

Look for highly wagered National TV games. Like NBA on ABC Sunday's. Watch money flow. Public tends to hammer a side... for example New York Knicks +3. People were hammering the line so hard some books were posting PK/PK at game time. Technically you would take the other side Boston. (Less money on the team). It's not rocket science. It also doesn't work every single time... but I would say 70% of the time it does. You must stick to a system... and never give up on it. If you continuously lose... your system wasn't thought out effectively.

70% winners! Easy game obv

[nick86]

Public can't be wrong 70% of the time. Any stats to back this up?

[luckypollok]

Well this is my 2 cents, first read about particular teams and there trends, then expand that knowlege to the conference and or league they are in. Injury reports and streaks are also important, lastly some agree and some some don't(i'm one that does), trust your gut, when you look at a game/line and that little voice "tells" you something, go with it, you will lose sometimes(no doubt), but you will be surprised how ofen your "gut" is right. Good luck. THE LUCKYPOLLOK.

[cyberbabble]

The public isn't wrong 70% of the time. They are wrong 50% of the time and the bookie gets the juice. When the public is all on one side of a game, then take the other side. The point is that when everyone agrees on one side, they are usually wrong. The hard part is finding out that the public is all on one side.