Do you automatically make money if you bet on...

[Masu485]

both the Dog ML, and Fav RL? As long as it's not a 1 point game in favor of the favorite, do u make money? Am I missing anything obvious?

[BuddyBear]

Actually, you automatically lose money if you do this strategy.

[donjuan]

As long as the favorite does not win by 1, that is correct. It's also -EV in almost all situations. The only situation where it would not be -EV would be if you lineshopped it enough to the point that you had a statistical arbitrage.

[Masu485]

ok thanks a lot. gonna give it a shot for tomorrow's games at least, see how it works out.

[durito]

ok thanks a lot. gonna give it a shot for tomorrow's games at least, see how it works out.

you need a bookie?

[smitch124]

There is a little more discussion of this topic in this thread:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/71420-betting-both-sides-baseball.html

[BuddyBear]

ok thanks a lot. gonna give it a shot for tomorrow's games at least, see how it works out.

So 2 people tell you that it is a long-term losing proposition yet you are going to go ahead and do it.

If I told you that there is a bomb in a building that could go off any minute would you go into it?

[onthewhat]

you need a bookie?

[rjt721]

Restricted user? Was he restricted for stupidity?

[Masu485]

So 2 people tell you that it is a long-term losing proposition yet you are going to go ahead and do it.

If I told you that there is a bomb in a building that could go off any minute would you go into it?

haha, well i'm just trying it tomorrow with small small bets, $2 each. it's just a test.

and people looking at historical data seem to say that the favorite winning by just one doesn't happen that often. i don't really want to do it for every game on the card, because it probably won't work that well, but focusing on one game/day, good odds you can avoid the rare one pt favorite game. i'll tell everyone how it works out in a few weeks.

[donjuan]

i'll tell everyone how it works out in a few weeks.

You might run hot over a small sample size, but you'd probably be better off just burning $1 bills.

[smitch124]

You might run hot over a small sample size, but you'd probably be better off just burning $1 bills.

Well then you are adding in the real chance of Masu starting a fire...

[Masu485]

Gimmie a break, I wish someone would at least tell me using examples or numbers why it's such a terrible idea? I don't find it any worse than betting normally. Worst case scenario is I break even, or lose a small bit. I'm not betting every baseball game, just one per day using this method. 200 total to win around 30-40 each time. The past 30 games favs won by 1 only 3 times.

[donjuan]

Gimmie a break, I wish someone would at least tell me using examples or numbers why it's such a terrible idea?

Someone gave you a link, which you obviously chose to ignore. The basic idea is that you can't take 2 -EV bets and turn them into 1 +EV bet. At least one of the sides would have to have +EV for your idea to work, in which case you would be better off betting the +EV bet.

I don't find it any worse than betting normally.

Then why even bring it up? It's a -EV bet, which no one cares to hear about. Do you honestly think you were the first person to come up with this idea?

Worst case scenario is I break even, or lose a small bit.

The real scenario is that you will lose money betting this over any reasonable sample size. The fact that you'll only be betting one of these per day just means it's going to take you longer to lose your money and come to the same conclusion.

The past 30 games favs won by 1 only 3 times.

Sweet sample size. Buzzin hard.

[Masu485]

Someone gave you a link, which you obviously chose to ignore. The basic idea is that you can't take 2 -EV bets and turn them into 1 +EV bet. At least one of the sides would have to have +EV for your idea to work, in which case you would be better off betting the +EV bet.



Then why even bring it up? It's a -EV bet, which no one cares to hear about. Do you honestly think you were the first person to come up with this idea?



The real scenario is that you will lose money betting this over any reasonable sample size. The fact that you'll only be betting one of these per day just means it's going to take you longer to lose your money and come to the same conclusion.



Sweet sample size. Buzzin hard.

Yeah I read the link they gave me, and all I've taken from it is they can't really decide either whether it's profitable. They did the math themselves, it would take around 5 good wagers to make up for a loss and gain a bit of profit. I don't see how it's a bad investment, if the fav wins by 1 point less than 20% of the time, which is the case. It's worth a try at least with small wagers, people need to do things for themselves before they fully understand.

[tacomax]

It's also -EV in almost all situations.

ok thanks a lot. gonna give it a shot for tomorrow's games at least, see how it works out.

[tacomax]

Restricted user? Was he restricted for stupidity?

Suspected duplicate account - the admin found out that he was posting from the same IP address at pags.

[HAPPY BOY]

Suspected duplicate account - the admin found out that he was posting from the same IP address at pags.

Say it aint so joe. damn it Taco your playing Sherlock Holmes again.

[donjuan]

They did the math themselves, it would take around 5 good wagers to make up for a loss and gain a bit of profit. I don't see how it's a bad investment, if the fav wins by 1 point less than 20% of the time, which is the case. It's worth a try at least with small wagers, people need to do things for themselves before they fully understand.

It varies by each game, depending on how big of a favorite the favorite is, what the total is and whether the favorite is a home team or not. Anyway, I've wasted enough of my time with such a simpleton. Be sure to click the links to books here so SBR gets their commission.