Does anyone really win at MLB?

[warriorfan707]

Easy way to bet on baseball. Bet on the favorites to cover if:

They're a high scoring team (ie, never the Giants)
They're a winning team
They're playing against a weak team, but not a weak team's good pitcher
They haven't covered in their last 2 or 3 games
Martingale it for 3 or 4 games (while applying the rules above)

Seems rather easy which makes one assume it doesn't work. Tigers didn't go more than 3 straight games the first half of last season without covering given that criteria, Diamondbacks and Rangers didn't go more than 3 games in the second half of the season.

Dumbest post ever?

[greenhippo]

Dumbest post ever?

81 games, can you point out more than 3 games in a row they didn't cover?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/tex/year/2011/seasontype/2/texas-rangers

[greenhippo]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/det/year/2011/seasontype/2/half/1/detroit-tigers

Or there

[greenhippo]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/ari/year/2011/seasontype/2/arizona-diamondbacks

Or there

[greenhippo]

243 games played and not a single stretch longer than 3 games. What's pretty amazing is warrior here is already on the computer. A few clicks of his mouse and surely he'd be able to look up this information? But does he have the IQ above 13 to do it? I guess mommy stepped out for a bit and he's having trouble.

Originally Posted by warriorfan707
Let the truth be known. Go ahead and rip me, judge me, I don't care anymore.

Truth is I probably deserve it.

I recently had a nice run where I won about 4 grand.

Gave most of it back, spent some and am left with nothing to write home about it yet again.

Yet thats not what Im even talking about.

Gambling has destroyed my relationships with family, friends, it destroyed everything I have and ate through everything I had like termites.

The sad thing is I still believe that if I stay disciplined I can win, and that keeps me possibly going. The life I am currently living is agony and misery masked in a constant state of action and denial.

This is too deep and too disturbing to tell anyone in person of course as noone could possibly ever understand us and what we go through except unless of course you are one of us.

Gambling is evil. Noone wins in the long run. You have a nice run and you will end up giving it all back. Its inevitable.

We all have a disease people. We were all born with a goddamn disease.


hahhaahahahhahahahah

[warriorfan707]

To be honest I stopped reading when you said to "never bet on the Giants".

And btw,

You are a ******* tool and a monkey.

Not to mention retard.

[durito]

Lose about 100k yearly

[wantitall4moi]

parlayin- i can't respond to PMs since i don't have 20 posts but everything you said in your PM was correct. it's definitely more complicated than just betting on pitchers with high ERAs but it's a really good place to start. results are solid going back a few years

and ignore everything wantitall4moi says, everything he's saying nonsense and fluff

if you guys stopped creating ghosts then you would have mre than 20 posts.

Baseball is easy even if youre just looking to bet one way.

Most over rated stat is starting pitching. If a guy doesnt go at least 7 2/3 he isnt worth betting on. If a guy has to lay heavy odds and is a 6 inning type guy and the team is mediocre then they are almost always a great bet against. Wont always be correct but odds are generally much better against a good starter than they are with him especially if he doesnt pitch a lot of innings.

Weather is the next most over rated stat. There will be a thousand wind is blowing this way or that way in a dozen ball parks this year. Yeah linesmakers dont know that info either. So as with anything once suckers and idiots get done betting into the obvious lines coming back over the top always offers great value. Wont always win but ups your price more than enough to make up for it.

There are a few more that arent as obviously over rated but if guys pick and choose their spots they will find them.

BECAUSE baseball is so stat oriented it makes it a great game to bet, especially if you use the stats people use to make their plays against them. baseballl odds are as volatile as they get, so gaining 30-40 cents is not uncommon. At that much of a difference you can pick a lot more losers than a guy who doesnt get the best price but has the same record.

If two guys bet the same 1000 sides of a game and player A gets an average of +110 a side and is 510-490 he profits 71 'units'. If Player B goes the identical 510-490 but only gets a -103 average price he is only going to profit 5 units. So a 13 cent difference in average price makes a huge difference.

baseball is ALL about the price you get results dont really mean much in the grand scheme. Although the ability to pick winners does matter more than in every other sport. That goes whether or not your playing both sides of the same game or just one side and looking to win.

[Highness]

if you guys stopped creating ghosts then you would have mre than 20 posts.

Baseball is easy even if youre just looking to bet one way.

Most over rated stat is starting pitching. If a guy doesnt go at least 7 2/3 he isnt worth betting on. If a guy has to lay heavy odds and is a 6 inning type guy and the team is mediocre then they are almost always a great bet against. Wont always be correct but odds are generally much better against a good starter than they are with him especially if he doesnt pitch a lot of innings.

Weather is the next most over rated stat. There will be a thousand wind is blowing this way or that way in a dozen ball parks this year. Yeah linesmakers dont know that info either. So as with anything once suckers and idiots get done betting into the obvious lines coming back over the top always offers great value. Wont always win but ups your price more than enough to make up for it.

There are a few more that arent as obviously over rated but if guys pick and choose their spots they will find them.

BECAUSE baseball is so stat oriented it makes it a great game to bet, especially if you use the stats people use to make their plays against them. baseballl odds are as volatile as they get, so gaining 30-40 cents is not uncommon. At that much of a difference you can pick a lot more losers than a guy who doesnt get the best price but has the same record.

If two guys bet the same 1000 sides of a game and player A gets an average of +110 a side and is 510-490 he profits 71 'units'. If Player B goes the identical 510-490 but only gets a -103 average price he is only going to profit 5 units. So a 13 cent difference in average price makes a huge difference.

baseball is ALL about the price you get results dont really mean much in the grand scheme. Although the ability to pick winners does matter more than in every other sport. That goes whether or not your playing both sides of the same game or just one side and looking to win.

that is quite the tale. again, all nonsense

[Highness]

How is weather overrated? It's a nonfactor in the vast majority of ballparks. It has to be "rated" before it's overrated

[wantitall4moi]

that is quite the tale. again, all nonsense

only 8 more posts to go before you can answer the plethora of PMs looking for insight from a guy who has made 12 posts and none of them really saying anything.

[warriorfan707]

that is quite the tale. again, all nonsense

gtfo noob

[DrIn$entive]

Wantitall4moi,

I don't think most guys here understand the value (which you have talked about previously) in ref to buying back to make a better line for yourself.

It would be great if you could start a thread this baseball season showing how you do it. I for one would appreciate it.

[lakerboy]

Hit 38% on dogs and you win. Only sport besides nba where I can guarantee I win at year over year. Team totals are so easy and totals are even easier.

[wantitall4moi]

Wantitall4moi,

I don't think most guys here understand the value (which you have talked about previously) in ref to buying back to make a better line for yourself.

It would be great if you could start a thread this baseball season showing how you do it. I for one would appreciate it.

Its a feel. I just look at series and then pitchers and then openers and try and guess what people will do. Value is always based on comparison. At least to me. I know some guys try to do it in a vacuum but IMO thats impossible.

So I look at an opener and try to bet it and hope it moves and generates some actions and questions in peoples minds. These days that is a powerful thing. WHY a line moved matters more to a lot of people than the actual game itself. They are more interested in beating the 'smart' money. Which I have said time and time again doesnt really exist. yet no one wants to believe it.

When I was betting full time I would move Pinnacle openers every time I made a play. Every time, before and after they changed their software. Was much easier to move the odds after they made changes, but that also made it easier to get down more than the over night limits. Especially with multiple accounts. So if I and a couple guys throw 20 times the overnight limit on a game with say a dozen accounts is that smart money? Most here woudl say if I was involved it wouldnt. yet it would more oftne than not cause a flow in that direction. While it would open up 'value' on the opposite side it wouldnt be that big enough a move to make it a 'no brainer'.

Add in the talk that late money matters more than early money and that the closer you get to game time the 'smarter' the money becomes and you have a recipe to work with. But unless youre betting a virgin line the value just isnt going to be there. So what you ideally want is the virgin number your way and the best odds the other way when you buy back.

That all comes down to feel. Guys like to use all sorts of other things like looking at 'sharp' books and comparing their moves and odds to other moves and odds and betting accordingly. But as shown those moves and odds happen for a number of reasons, and almost never the reason people think they happen.

In the end you the player want to be the bookie. that is the only sure fire way to make a profit. While some guys like to use their opinions and math to create what they think is a better way the overall best way is to make the same amount no matter who wins. Of course you can manipulate youre buy backs anyway you want, but once you take opinion out of it it makes it a lot easier. As in you take a 5K lead on a team -115. The other side gets up to +125, meaning that side is -135. Do you think youre -115 is a 'value' line and you got the best of the line move, or do you buy back to guarantee a profit regardless? Or do you buy back partially as a safety net? A lot of guy will but back to a push. meaning they buy back the other side for 4K so if the +125 side wins they break even. If their original play wins they make 350. A full arb would guarantee them about 193. So it comes down to how they personally 'value' their original play and the 'value' of the dog. Some guys might even go back the other way and risk a little bit more on the dog so whatever their potential profit on the fav side would be they bet on the dog. So theyre risking a potential loss for a little bit extra. That of course is less likely since most guys are infatuated with steam and any time a line moves that much most guys automatically think it is a winner.

So there are multiple approaches. But in this day and age just about all of them involve taking leads in some form or another, which in itself is a gamble, especially if you dont know what youre doing. But baseball is about volume. You can churn a lot of money over in a short amount of time and can double up your bankroll multiple times with very little risk if you have the ability to get limits high enough to accommodate you.

Like I said I am going to Vegas to put it to a small test. To see what limits are and how long it takes to get noticed (again). Difference this time around is I wont be doing it in conjunction with offshore and will be making the plays alone and in town. Although I could have a couple guys I know help me stay less conspicuous I am trying to put it to a test so will do it as 'noobish' as I can.

[DrIn$entive]

Wantitall4moi,

Really appreciate your above response. But why would Vegas books not welcome this type of betting? I mean if they move their lines for the public to bet, why would they care if you are betting to possibly make yourself a risk-free wager (with a nice positive line move)? Nevermind, I know the answer to that. But, it just seems "unfair" to have to have someone else place bets for you when the lines are open to the public.

[greenhippo]

To be honest I stopped reading when you said to "never bet on the Giants".

And btw,

You are a ******* tool and a monkey.

Not to mention retard.

So you can't read, good deal then.

[MoneyLineDawg]

I am the most confident in myself in MLB.....I have a few tricks, but I generally like to ride hot teams and hot starting pitchers as the starting point.....And pound certain Overs (not gunna give my trick away but trust me on this one it's easy money) when a few factors come together

Good or great teams as the underdogs are usually very great value as well in certain situations

Will have a thread with my plays this spring

[parlayin]

Strange how people can have such divergent philosophies yet everyone crushes bases.

I have a few tricks, but I generally like to ride hot teams and hot starting pitchers as the starting point.

The best advice I can give you is to bet on really bad pitching

So...bet on good pitching or bad pitching?

everyone knows pitchers are the key to baseball.

Most over rated stat is starting pitching.

So...pitching is important or not important?

[The Inevitable]

I got killed my first 2 years betting mlb. It's funny, before I started I thought I was going become a millionaire betting mlb. lol I was under the impression its too easy to win. Wrong!.. I lost a lot of money. I finally figured it out last year, but the down side was I didn't have money to bet with. I didn't have enough spare money and was no way in hell going to use money for bills. So I just used sbr pts. I made a killing and only started with 20-25 pt bets. The more I made, the higher my bets became. Ironically, I was winning but was angry. I couldn't use real money for these bets, so that pissed me off.

[Sam Odom]

I didn't have enough spare money and was no way in hell going to use money for bills.

Then you are NOT a professional gambler yet

[DrIn$entive]

I didn't have enough spare money and was no way in hell going to use money for bills.

Good to hear as that means you are not a gambling degenerate- as some will beg, borrow, or steal to have action. Always keep it that way.

[wantitall4moi]

Wantitall4moi,

Really appreciate your above response. But why would Vegas books not welcome this type of betting? I mean if they move their lines for the public to bet, why would they care if you are betting to possibly make yourself a risk-free wager (with a nice positive line move)? Nevermind, I know the answer to that. But, it just seems "unfair" to have to have someone else place bets for you when the lines are open to the public.

books dont like losing money. Its that simple. When you play them off against each other one of them loses. If you place scalps at the same book (in vegas anyway) theyll boot you very fast. Pinnacle used to welcome buy backs. In some cases offering extremely nice odds to get as much on the 'anti-steam' side as possible. Some will say they are 'smart' for doing that because steal alwats wins. But like I have said over and over and over again it doesnt, and in baseball betting against steam is more profitable than taking openers on the steam side. Which then leads to the obvious question...why bet openers just go anti steam? Which I have also commented on numerous times.

As far as pitching and stats. EVERYONE has the same exact info and stats. Because of fantasy baseball the stat break downs are insanely anal. Therefore if you check rotisserie websites or fantasy stat site you can have every breakdown at every position. Math guys love that, modelers love that. So do bookies. So do guys with an independent thought. Math is suposed to be the great equalizer, therefore it should have no emotions no opinions. Numbers dont lie sort of thing. So if everyone has the same stats and everyone gets the same result why cant these math guys and modelers always win? because the game is still played by humans and the dynamic of baseball, while muted compared to other sports, still makes it unpredictable in nature.

But anyone that thinks starting pitching is some sort of Holy Grail better go look up the number of blown leads bull pens have given up over the past few years. Hell in some cases a starter going 8 innings wasnt enough. When a lot of teams have 3 or 4 set up guys and then a closer that makes starting pitching even more irrelevant.

Either way in the end baseball is a grind, it is a 12-14 hour a day 270 day crusade of running around or refreshing screens looking to get the best price. it isnt that hard on the surface but it gets to you after awhile. Thats why people have a really hard time with it, even guys who have a chance to win.

[broadway6]

IMO you have to come up with a max on juice you lay for favs and play a lot of dogs. Never lay -200. You would actually make money fading -200 if you did this throughout the season.

[Highness]

Strange how people can have such divergent philosophies yet everyone crushes bases.

thats the thing, none of these guys "crush" bases and they all lose just like the other 99% of sports bettors. just about every little tidbit in this thread has been garbage, "never bet big favorites", "follow hot pitchers". it's a joke

[Highness]

books dont like losing money. Its that simple. When you play them off against each other one of them loses. If you place scalps at the same book (in vegas anyway) theyll boot you very fast. Pinnacle used to welcome buy backs. In some cases offering extremely nice odds to get as much on the 'anti-steam' side as possible. Some will say they are 'smart' for doing that because steal alwats wins. But like I have said over and over and over again it doesnt, and in baseball betting against steam is more profitable than taking openers on the steam side. Which then leads to the obvious question...why bet openers just go anti steam? Which I have also commented on numerous times.

As far as pitching and stats. EVERYONE has the same exact info and stats. Because of fantasy baseball the stat break downs are insanely anal. Therefore if you check rotisserie websites or fantasy stat site you can have every breakdown at every position. Math guys love that, modelers love that. So do bookies. So do guys with an independent thought. Math is suposed to be the great equalizer, therefore it should have no emotions no opinions. Numbers dont lie sort of thing. So if everyone has the same stats and everyone gets the same result why cant these math guys and modelers always win? because the game is still played by humans and the dynamic of baseball, while muted compared to other sports, still makes it unpredictable in nature.

But anyone that thinks starting pitching is some sort of Holy Grail better go look up the number of blown leads bull pens have given up over the past few years. Hell in some cases a starter going 8 innings wasnt enough. When a lot of teams have 3 or 4 set up guys and then a closer that makes starting pitching even more irrelevant.

Either way in the end baseball is a grind, it is a 12-14 hour a day 270 day crusade of running around or refreshing screens looking to get the best price. it isnt that hard on the surface but it gets to you after awhile. Thats why people have a really hard time with it, even guys who have a chance to win.

I've never seen someone waste so much time writing so many words that translates to complete nonsense

[HoulihansTX]

listen to everyone on this board. They all win, and @ an amazing rate.

[a4u2fear]

listen to everyone on this board. They all win, and @ an amazing rate.

Agreed, why don't these guys post their threads from last year

[topgame85]

O/U is the thing to bet in MLB

[warriorfan707]

Agreed, why don't these guys post their threads from last year

Heres mine

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.sbrforum.com%2Fbaseball-betting%2F1153327-congratulations-if-you-found-thread-you-about-make-killing.html&ei=661KT6QU6LCJAv3K_doN&usg=AFQjCNHkBqe2CK0CJ-RxrThJNRp0lBARvg&sig2=r9kZObNT86_K8-RE35WvAA

[warriorfan707]

2011 posted sbr record

Ytd 70-49 (58.82%) +31.1

2010 posted record was also 59% but + over 400 Units

[wantitall4moi]

I've never seen someone waste so much time writing so many words that translates to complete nonsense

at least you got to 20 posts so you can answer all those Pms people send you.

You sure have a lot to say all of a sudden for aguy that started their posting career here asking for information about how to time plays against Pinnacle moves.

I have never ever asked a question in regards to sports betting approach on a forum in my life. That should tell yuo something right there.

if you have to ask questions then you arent smart enough to be commenting on topics above your intelligence level.

[The Inevitable]

Then you are NOT a professional gambler yet

No I am not a professional gambler. Do I need to be? Is everyone here supposedly a professional gambler?

[onacloud]

2011 posted sbr record

Ytd 70-49 (58.82%) +31.1

2010 posted record was also 59% but + over 400 Units

Hitting 58% over 119 plays isn't anything to brag about, now if you hit 59% over 500 plays that's a little different assuming good odds not the -250 ML's.

[HoulihansTX]

Hitting 58% over 119 plays isn't anything to brag about, now if you hit 59% over 500 plays that's a little different assuming good odds not the -250 ML's.

He made up units, chased, and never posted a ticket of any kind. one play would be 2 units, and the other would be 15.

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