Just ONE example showing the power of TEASERS.......

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  • Fishhead
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-11-05
    • 40179

    #1
    Just ONE example showing the power of TEASERS.......
    Please note, I have copied and pasted the following in response to a question that was asked of me in my AAA teaser thread posted earlier in the week.......



    OK, this is why the -7 -110 TIES WIN teasers were so lucrative to me personally.

    Read carefully:

    On any given week were there were two NFL games with -8 spreads(or approximate), teased both down to -1.

    EXAMPLE:

    PACKERS............+320
    EAGLES -8..........-340

    GIANTS................+320
    STEELERS -8........ -340


    Tease EAGLES and STEELERS to -1 each, ties win.

    5500 to win 5000

    Now wager on BOTH underdogs on the moneyline for half of the teaser wager, in this case................

    GB 2500 to win 8000 at +320 ML
    NYG 2500 to win 8000 at +320 ML

    HAVING DONE THIS, HERE ARE YOUR ONLY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN OVERTIME TIE(VERY UNLIKELY).

    BOTH FAVS WIN.............BREAKEVEN
    EITHER DOG WINS..........BREAKEVEN
    BOTH DOGS WIN.......... +10,500

    MANY TIMES BETTER THAN +320 COULD BE FOUND, SO ACTUALLY MANY TIMES IF EITHER BOTH DOGS WON OR JUST ONE, MADE A SMALL PROFIT.

    DURING THE LAST 5 YEARS, BOTH DOGS WOULD WIN IN THIS SCENARIO A TAD OVER 2 TIMES PER YEAR ON AVERAGE IN WAGERS PLACED.

    SO IN EFFECT, THIS WAS A RISK-FREE WAY OF BASICALLY GUARANTEING APPROXIMENTLY $25,000 A YEAR if WAGERING WITH THE ABOVE FIGURES PROVIDED.
  • Fishhead
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-11-05
    • 40179

    #2
    My personal opinion is that in the very near future, you will not be able to find even 6pt 2-teamers that pay even money...........anywhere on the planet.
    Comment
    • CHRISSANGEL
      SBR Sharp
      • 08-02-08
      • 269

      #3
      not a fan of the teaser
      Comment
      • smitch124
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 05-19-08
        • 12566

        #4
        what about cheating to 8.5 to 9.5 on the favs for a better ML on the Dog?

        Does that pay in the long run?
        Comment
        • Fishhead
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 08-11-05
          • 40179

          #5
          Originally posted by CHRISSANGEL
          not a fan of the teaser



          You don't like +EV return on your money?

          Any particular reason for not liking a guaranteed way of making money?

          Comment
          • Fishhead
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 08-11-05
            • 40179

            #6
            Originally posted by smitch124
            what about cheating to 8.5 to 9.5 on the favs for a better ML on the Dog?

            Does that pay in the long run?
            Yes, a ton of combos work.

            NOW, UNDERSTAND, ONE DOES NOT HAVE TO GUARANTEE A "NO LOSS" SITUATION...........AS YOU WILL ALWAYS HAVE THE BEST OF IT IN THE LONGRUN PLAYING THE RIGHT SPREADS IN COMBONATION WITH THE RIGHT TYPES OF TEASERS., just that one can expect more violitility.

            -FH-
            Comment
            • durito
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-03-06
              • 13173

              #7
              even if you play somewhere where ties don't win you can get someone to insure the 1 (and the tie if you really want to), but yes this is a great way to make money
              Comment
              • Fishhead
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 08-11-05
                • 40179

                #8
                Originally posted by Fishhead
                Please note, I have copied and pasted the following in response to a question that was asked of me in my AAA teaser thread posted earlier in the week.......



                OK, this is why the -7 -110 TIES WIN teasers were so lucrative to me personally.

                Read carefully:

                On any given week were there were two NFL games with -8 spreads(or approximate), teased both down to -1.

                EXAMPLE:

                PACKERS............+320
                EAGLES -8..........-340

                GIANTS................+320
                STEELERS -8........ -340


                Tease EAGLES and STEELERS to -1 each, ties win.

                5500 to win 5000

                Now wager on BOTH underdogs on the moneyline for half of the teaser wager, in this case................

                GB 2500 to win 8000 at +320 ML
                NYG 2500 to win 8000 at +320 ML

                HAVING DONE THIS, HERE ARE YOUR ONLY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN OVERTIME TIE(VERY UNLIKELY).

                BOTH FAVS WIN.............BREAKEVEN
                EITHER DOG WINS..........BREAKEVEN
                BOTH DOGS WIN.......... +10,500

                MANY TIMES BETTER THAN +320 COULD BE FOUND, SO ACTUALLY MANY TIMES IF EITHER BOTH DOGS WON OR JUST ONE, MADE A SMALL PROFIT.

                DURING THE LAST 5 YEARS, BOTH DOGS WOULD WIN IN THIS SCENARIO A TAD OVER 2 TIMES PER YEAR ON AVERAGE IN WAGERS PLACED.

                SO IN EFFECT, THIS WAS A RISK-FREE WAY OF BASICALLY GUARANTEING APPROXIMENTLY $25,000 A YEAR if WAGERING WITH THE ABOVE FIGURES PROVIDED.

                To make clear, it was I who wrote the above a couple years ago .............
                Comment
                • outforseason36
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 08-31-08
                  • 350

                  #9
                  So in other words, this is a "no risk, high reward" play. I am always down for that and look forward to plays like these now. Thanks for the info Fishhead.
                  Comment
                  • Richkas
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-03-08
                    • 19396

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Fishhead
                    Please note, I have copied and pasted the following in response to a question that was asked of me in my AAA teaser thread posted earlier in the week.......



                    OK, this is why the -7 -110 TIES WIN teasers were so lucrative to me personally.

                    Read carefully:

                    On any given week were there were two NFL games with -8 spreads(or approximate), teased both down to -1.

                    EXAMPLE:

                    PACKERS............+320
                    EAGLES -8..........-340

                    GIANTS................+320
                    STEELERS -8........ -340


                    Tease EAGLES and STEELERS to -1 each, ties win.

                    5500 to win 5000

                    Now wager on BOTH underdogs on the moneyline for half of the teaser wager, in this case................

                    GB 2500 to win 8000 at +320 ML
                    NYG 2500 to win 8000 at +320 ML

                    HAVING DONE THIS, HERE ARE YOUR ONLY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN OVERTIME TIE(VERY UNLIKELY).

                    BOTH FAVS WIN.............BREAKEVEN
                    EITHER DOG WINS..........BREAKEVEN
                    BOTH DOGS WIN.......... +10,500

                    MANY TIMES BETTER THAN +320 COULD BE FOUND, SO ACTUALLY MANY TIMES IF EITHER BOTH DOGS WON OR JUST ONE, MADE A SMALL PROFIT.

                    DURING THE LAST 5 YEARS, BOTH DOGS WOULD WIN IN THIS SCENARIO A TAD OVER 2 TIMES PER YEAR ON AVERAGE IN WAGERS PLACED.

                    SO IN EFFECT, THIS WAS A RISK-FREE WAY OF BASICALLY GUARANTEING APPROXIMENTLY $25,000 A YEAR if WAGERING WITH THE ABOVE FIGURES PROVIDED.

                    Good stuff
                    Comment
                    • gambleballs
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 10-15-07
                      • 466

                      #11
                      Just curious as to where you're getting these 7pt -110 ties win teasers at? or even a -7 -110 ties reduce would be awesome.
                      Comment
                      • SBR Lou
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 08-02-07
                        • 37863

                        #12
                        Originally posted by outforseason36
                        So in other words, this is a "no risk, high reward" play. I am always down for that and look forward to plays like these now. Thanks for the info Fishhead.
                        As he touched on though, these two team 6pters crossing the 3 and 7 are +EV in and of themselves, so it's not like you can only do something like he outlined. You'll hit more frequently just playing them alone but both ways yield positive expectations obviously..
                        Comment
                        • Boner_18
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 08-24-08
                          • 8301

                          #13
                          Took me a sec and a calculator to wrap my mind around how this works. My book DSI grades a tie and win no action and a tie and a loss a loss. Do these contingencies happen all that often?

                          In fact the more important occurrence is a tie and win scenario b/c in this scenario you lose the entire amount of the base wager (the two half-dog-wagers) while in the tie loss scenario you lose one half-dog-wager... I guess either take this out of +EV...
                          Comment
                          • arpeggiomeister
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-23-08
                            • 1015

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Fishhead
                            Please note, I have copied and pasted the following in response to a question that was asked of me in my AAA teaser thread posted earlier in the week.......



                            OK, this is why the -7 -110 TIES WIN teasers were so lucrative to me personally.

                            Read carefully:

                            On any given week were there were two NFL games with -8 spreads(or approximate), teased both down to -1.

                            EXAMPLE:

                            PACKERS............+320
                            EAGLES -8..........-340

                            GIANTS................+320
                            STEELERS -8........ -340


                            Tease EAGLES and STEELERS to -1 each, ties win.

                            5500 to win 5000

                            Now wager on BOTH underdogs on the moneyline for half of the teaser wager, in this case................

                            GB 2500 to win 8000 at +320 ML
                            NYG 2500 to win 8000 at +320 ML

                            HAVING DONE THIS, HERE ARE YOUR ONLY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN OVERTIME TIE(VERY UNLIKELY).

                            BOTH FAVS WIN.............BREAKEVEN
                            EITHER DOG WINS..........BREAKEVEN
                            BOTH DOGS WIN.......... +10,500

                            MANY TIMES BETTER THAN +320 COULD BE FOUND, SO ACTUALLY MANY TIMES IF EITHER BOTH DOGS WON OR JUST ONE, MADE A SMALL PROFIT.

                            DURING THE LAST 5 YEARS, BOTH DOGS WOULD WIN IN THIS SCENARIO A TAD OVER 2 TIMES PER YEAR ON AVERAGE IN WAGERS PLACED.

                            SO IN EFFECT, THIS WAS A RISK-FREE WAY OF BASICALLY GUARANTEING APPROXIMENTLY $25,000 A YEAR if WAGERING WITH THE ABOVE FIGURES PROVIDED.

                            I still need to wrap my brain around this but it looks awesome. Thanks brother!!!
                            Comment
                            • fiveteamer
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 04-14-08
                              • 10805

                              #15
                              where to find -110?

                              -130 at pinnacle.
                              Comment
                              • fiveteamer
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 04-14-08
                                • 10805

                                #16
                                Originally posted by arpeggiomeister
                                I still need to wrap my brain around this but it looks awesome. Thanks brother!!!
                                made sense the first time I read it. And I'm an idiot.

                                Better than anything I've yet to read in that math mumbo jumbo think tank.
                                Comment
                                • accuscoresucks
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 11-03-07
                                  • 7160

                                  #17
                                  nice info fh

                                  never looked at it in this light before
                                  Comment
                                  • blackbart
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-04-07
                                    • 3835

                                    #18
                                    too try and clarify:

                                    fish said "were"
                                    these are no longer available anywhere, or if they are no one is saying where. for obvious reasons
                                    Comment
                                    • donjuan
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 08-29-07
                                      • 3993

                                      #19
                                      While the teaser is great, the amount you should bet on the underdogs depends on the size of your bankroll and how much you can get down on the teaser. And it puzzles me why you would over-hedge this on the -EV side. Unless you think those dogs have +EV, you are betting too much on the dogs.
                                      Comment
                                      • Igetp2s
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-21-07
                                        • 1046

                                        #20
                                        What book had 7 point teasers at -110 and ties win?

                                        If they don't have it anymore, it shouldn't be a problem disclosing this info.
                                        Comment
                                        • Fishhead
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 08-11-05
                                          • 40179

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by donjuan
                                          While the teaser is great, the amount you should bet on the underdogs depends on the size of your bankroll and how much you can get down on the teaser. And it puzzles me why you would over-hedge this on the -EV side. Unless you think those dogs have +EV, you are betting too much on the dogs.
                                          You are 100% correct, this is just an EXAMPLE of what can be accomplished, and proving are strong these are ......and if were inclined to do it this way, they could.


                                          NO, THERE ARE NO MORE 7 PT teasers like this that I'm aware of........this was at ABC ISLANDS 2+ years ago.........wiseguys made millions and millions off of these over the years.

                                          Currenltly, look for books with 6pt even money teasers........or -110 at the worst.

                                          Actually, betting these can be an ART just as much as a SCIENCE.........but that's for another chapter in the book.
                                          Comment
                                          • fiveteamer
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 04-14-08
                                            • 10805

                                            #22
                                            OK, so if I tease

                                            Selection : 1NFL Football for Game
                                            Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14-September-2008 1:05 PM PST
                                            Spread -1 for Game


                                            Selection : 2NFL Football for Game
                                            Seattle Seahawks 14-September-2008 1:05 PM PST
                                            Spread -1 for Game

                                            for $200 at Pinnacle at 10/11 (1.91) to win $382

                                            I then back the 2 dogs at matchbook for half the amount of the teaser payout? ($191)

                                            $191 on Bills at +197 to win $376

                                            $191 on ATL at +264 to win $504

                                            So, the worst thing that could happen is, you break even, right?

                                            Help me out here, I'm an idiot.
                                            Comment
                                            • Fishhead
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 08-11-05
                                              • 40179

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by fiveteamer
                                              OK, so if I tease

                                              Selection : 1NFL Football for Game
                                              Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14-September-2008 1:05 PM PST
                                              Spread -1 for Game


                                              Selection : 2NFL Football for Game
                                              Seattle Seahawks 14-September-2008 1:05 PM PST
                                              Spread -1 for Game

                                              for $200 at Pinnacle at 10/11 (1.91) to win $382

                                              I then back the 2 dogs at matchbook for half the amount of the teaser payout? ($191)

                                              $191 on Bills at +197 to win $376

                                              $191 on ATL at +264 to win $504

                                              So, the worst thing that could happen is, you break even, right?

                                              Help me out here, I'm an idiot.
                                              If jus the BILLS were to win outright.........it appears you would lose 15 dollars....

                                              If just the FALCONS were to win outright.......it appear you would win 113 dollars.....

                                              If you were to win the teaser..........it appears you would win would breakeven.....

                                              If BOTH dogs were to win.......it appears you would win $680


                                              I DID THIS QUICKLY, SO THIS MAY NOT BE ACCURATE.........EXCUSE ME IF I'M WRONG.......I WILL DOUBLE CHECK IT AFTER I SUBMIT.

                                              THANKS
                                              Comment
                                              • fiveteamer
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 04-14-08
                                                • 10805

                                                #24
                                                If that is the case, it seems like a way to have action with very low risk.
                                                Comment
                                                • Fishhead
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 08-11-05
                                                  • 40179

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Fishhead
                                                  If jus the BILLS were to win outright.........it appears you would lose 15 dollars....

                                                  If just the FALCONS were to win outright.......it appear you would win 113 dollars.....

                                                  If you were to win the teaser..........it appears you would win would breakeven.....

                                                  If BOTH dogs were to win.......it appears you would win $680


                                                  I DID THIS QUICKLY, SO THIS MAY NOT BE ACCURATE.........EXCUSE ME IF I'M WRONG.......I WILL DOUBLE CHECK IT AFTER I SUBMIT.

                                                  THANKS
                                                  Appears right, considering your numbers are correct.....


                                                  W-W with teaser----EVEN
                                                  W-L with teaser(buf)----(-15)
                                                  L-W with teaser(atl)----+113
                                                  L-L with teaser----+680
                                                  Comment
                                                  • fiveteamer
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 04-14-08
                                                    • 10805

                                                    #26
                                                    Thanks Fishhead.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • durito
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 07-03-06
                                                      • 13173

                                                      #27
                                                      what if they both win by 1
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fiveteamer
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 04-14-08
                                                        • 10805

                                                        #28
                                                        I'm guessing I'm out $182 if that happens.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • smitch124
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 05-19-08
                                                          • 12566

                                                          #29
                                                          A Couple of things.

                                                          The Bills aren't playing the Seahawks or the Bucs.

                                                          But even if they were in this example, if you hit the teaser you would win $182 on the teaser and lose $382 on the 2 ML dog plays and be down $200.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • fiveteamer
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-14-08
                                                            • 10805

                                                            #30
                                                            if you hit the teaser you break even...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Sforz
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 08-07-08
                                                              • 2221

                                                              #31
                                                              what would happen if you win one game and push the other in your teaser?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • fiveteamer
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 04-14-08
                                                                • 10805

                                                                #32
                                                                FH already explained that...
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Kingctb27
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 07-16-08
                                                                  • 2258

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Looks like a good way to do business. I am doing USC and Georgia this week. Dunno how Georgia is only -7 this week.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • smitch124
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 05-19-08
                                                                    • 12566

                                                                    #34
                                                                    $382 is your total return on the teaser not how much you win. You only win $182.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • fiveteamer
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 04-14-08
                                                                      • 10805

                                                                      #35
                                                                      total return is a win for me.
                                                                      Comment
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