Need advice should I hedge or not

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  • nyplayer33
    Restricted User
    • 09-27-06
    • 8303

    #1
    Need advice should I hedge or not
    Have several parlays risking about 90 to win 900 or so on Giants to win Super bowl. I grabbed them before the SF game at +345 to win Super Bowl and combined with other games that already have won. Would u bet NE to cover or hedge?? Give me some examples...Im usa punter
  • minet123
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-17-07
    • 10280

    #2
    You should only hedge if:

    1. You think the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
    2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure for bankroll considerations.
    3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies to contests, 100-1 futures, game shows, etc.)

    Hedging with a -EV or even neutral EV bet reduces variance at the expense of also reducing EV. Since the goal for most bettors is to maximize EV (while maintaining an appropriate risk of ruin), you do not want to voluntarily give away your EV by hedging for the sake of hedging.
    Comment
    • paranoyd androyd
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-01-11
      • 6459

      #3
      another hedge your profits away thread unreal
      Comment
      • nj1035
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-19-09
        • 902

        #4
        Originally posted by minet123
        You should only hedge if:

        1. You think the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
        2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure for bankroll considerations.
        3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies to contests, 100-1 futures, game shows, etc.)

        Hedging with a -EV or even neutral EV bet reduces variance at the expense of also reducing EV. Since the goal for most bettors is to maximize EV (while maintaining an appropriate risk of ruin), you do not want to voluntarily give away your EV by hedging for the sake of hedging.
        Well said.
        Comment
        • nyplayer33
          Restricted User
          • 09-27-06
          • 8303

          #5
          No hedge it is, the post saying unreal..dude it's a message board not your classroom..UNREAL
          Comment
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