Ask John Ryan Week 2

[John Ryan]

Thanks for the solid start to our new thread discussing everything sports handicapping. I look forward to this week's questions and I will be targeting more on neural networks; definitions and uses; this week. Feel free to share or aks anything on your mind. Regarding the Super Bowl I will have that on the NFL thread later this week and will be discussing the prop bets each day.

In the meantime make sure you check out last week's mailbag article. Once again thanks for your interest.

http://www.sbrforum.com/mlb-baseball/free-picks/john-ryan-answers-your-questions-a-23075/

[Roxxyfish]

when do you leave ?

[Creditsforedits]

John, what do you think about home field advantage when it comes the handicapping games and also which sports do you think it matters the most in?

Thanks

[surfcity963]

John,
Lets talk about the Super Bowl. What trends do you feel hold the most weight in championship games? I know you take many situations in to account when making picks, but everyone want to talk about momentum, experience, and the ability to perform in pressure situations. How do you rank these factors in order of importance, and how do you account for them in your picks?
Speaking of championship games, which do you feel are the easiest to call: Series Championships such as the NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Finals, World Series, or individual matches like the BCS Ntl Championship, Super Bowl and the NCAA BB Finals?
thanks

[John Ryan]

Two very good questions... Just a highlight for everyone is the fact that I have winning records in EVERY sport I have posted now completing TWO full years on SBR. These threads have been a valuable resource for all of us and your contributions are all noted. Thank you very much!

[Inkwell77]

With college basketball (or any sport for that matter)....

Do the main books (Pinnacle, CRIS) ever try to throw steam chasers for a loop? Like say they throw up a game and get zero action on said game from their main sharp players. The number is right on/this game is not attractive to any sharps for whatever reason....
Why would a book not move the line to try to throw off steam followers and have them following non-existent steam?

Or I guess I better question is, how big of a problem is steam chasing for most books?
Why do many books have a problem with players following steam in certain markets?

[ItemB]

Do you bet your own picks?

[John Ryan]

ok.. here is some food for thought and Let's tear this stuff apart.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-10 SU & 32-10-3 ATS (76%).
• Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 39-6 SU & 33-9-3 ATS (79%).

In the 45 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (13%).
• Teams that win the time of possession battle are 32-13 SU & 31-11-3 ATS (74%).
• Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 37-2 SU & 33-5-1 ATS (87%).
• Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.

[John Ryan]

I have written the first of what will be many installments on neural networks and back propagation. You can see this at this link:

http://www.sbrforum.com/sports-betting/news/ryan-s-mailbag-neural-networks-a-23179/

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

i appreciate ur efforts here...enjoyed reading ur week 1 mailbag. I'm not new to gambling, but I am trying to add more statistical analysis into my handicapping. I think it can only prepare me better for the long run. I am not a math guy and never have been. Which types of classes should I look into taking to start a solid foundation. I'm 28, so I would need to go back to school for night classes. Besides class, what are some other ways I can learn on my own.

Also I get what u were saying with your model. You use passing in correlation to win percentage and so on. I don't see how you arrive at making a titan play on the under. I never been a totals guys as i see this the most unpredictable, probably due in large part to my lack of systems and formulas. But back to your titan play, how do you arrive at the under judging by both teams past performances. I would think your model would lean over as these teams are normally high scoring passing teams that lack defense. I would play the under myself, but I can't grasp how ur system arrives at that from what I read in week 1 discussion.

Thanks again

[Landscaper]

Why do u lie about your record???

Sure u won't answer this