Math Lesson - Do not bet basketball teasers

[ThaTopMoron]

I won a teaser on NBA game the other night.... Grizz vs Clips... even with the refs trying to fukk me, STILL WON.

learned my lesson, haven't bet one since on NBA... only NCAAB and to take a big dog and make it bigger... to fade the likes of the Tar Heels and Buckeyes yesterday, easy TEASER WINNA

[Jrod124]

Empirically speaking you are wrong.

A 4-team 10 point teaser paying -120 essentially means you are laying -611 (85.94% implied probability) for each leg of the teaser.

Put another way this means that for the teaser leg to represent value compared to the ATS at -110, the result would need to finish within the 10pt range teased 33.56% of time (85.94-52.38).

Taking all matches from the lowest totalled quartiles from NBA and NCAAB over the last 5 years, the actual figure is well below that. Does that mean it is impossible to find a good spot for this type of play? No but that can be said of any type of play that is statistically -EV.

This guy always provides great insight

[Dutchie]

I'm a big fan of football teasers and large 5-6 basketball teasers

[RoadFavorites$$$]

This guy always provides great insight

The problem is, comparing the statistical results of games that include LA Tech vs Nevada when they play a 95-85 game is pointless in deciding whether putting Indiana +18 into a teaser is the question.

College basketball is too big of a landscape to compare results... I'd be curious to see how often Big 10 conference games fell in that percentage.

[smoke a bowl]

Standard odds for 2 teamer +4 points: -110

Data: Teams miss covering by a half point about 2% of the time. Same for teams not covering by a full point, 1.5, etc.

Need each leg of teaser to hit at least 72% of the time to break even.

Adding 4 points to a team's spread gives the dog a 50% + (8*2)% = 66% chance of covering. Fair odds on such teasers closer to +130.

Well below the 72% needed for bet to be +EV

Take Nets -4.5 game tonight as an example. Tease it down to -0.5 and Pinn gives fair odds of -186 on that bet with a win % of 64.5%. Not even close to 72%.

Choose a teaser that crosses 0 and the percentage chance of that leg covering falls 2%.

If you must do it (jjgold), go for games with low totals... ahem.. not NBA.

You're welcome
mathy

Crossing the zero would make the game fail to cover more than 2% more of the time being that the 0 is a full point or 4% and the 1's on both sides are worth a little less than the 2,3,4,5,6,7, etc. which are all approx 4% like you stated earlier (or 2% per half pt)

[Richkas]

The problem is, comparing the statistical results of games that include LA Tech vs Nevada when they play a 95-85 game is pointless in deciding whether putting Indiana +18 into a teaser is the question.

College basketball is too big of a landscape to compare results... I'd be curious to see how often Big 10 conference games fell in that percentage.

You are so correct....when they come up with this probability shit they are taking into account all games....if you can pick a winner....you can pick a winner....that probability shit is for the average capper

[mathdotcom]

The problem is, comparing the statistical results of games that include LA Tech vs Nevada when they play a 95-85 game is pointless in deciding whether putting Indiana +18 into a teaser is the question.

College basketball is too big of a landscape to compare results... I'd be curious to see how often Big 10 conference games fell in that percentage.

it tells you the average so on average the bets are horseshit

thats the starting point

it means you have a long way to go and that you better have a big edge vs an average bet for it to be +ev

[FourLengthsClear]

The problem is, comparing the statistical results of games that include LA Tech vs Nevada when they play a 95-85 game is pointless in deciding whether putting Indiana +18 into a teaser is the question.

College basketball is too big of a landscape to compare results... I'd be curious to see how often Big 10 conference games fell in that percentage.

But it doesn't. I specifically said the lowest totalled quartile (only games which are in the lowest 25% in terms of total).

[FourLengthsClear]

You are so correct....when they come up with this probability shit they are taking into account all games....if you can pick a winner....you can pick a winner....that probability shit is for the average capper

That is funny in two different ways.

1) You are broke.
2) Neither Mathy or I are "cappers" at all.

[RoadFavorites$$$]

it tells you the average so on average the bets are horseshit

thats the starting point

it means you have a long way to go and that you better have a big edge vs an average bet for it to be +ev

I'm skeptical of 4 team 10 point teasers, but this year they are 22-13 for me. Not too bad. Need to see them hit more before I'll take them seriously, possibly not until next year.

Tonight's 4 team 10 point teaser is:

Heat -2
Pittsburgh +15.5
Princeton +11.5
Spurs +16

[Iwinyourmoney]

Mathy talk to me about teasing the underdog and under of same game in nfl

[mathdotcom]

I'm skeptical of 4 team 10 point teasers, but this year they are 22-13 for me. Not too bad. Need to see them hit more before I'll take them seriously, possibly not until next year.

Tonight's 4 team 10 point teaser is:

Heat -2
Pittsburgh +15.5
Princeton +11.5
Spurs +16

You are a retard

[FourLengthsClear]

Mathy talk to me about teasing the underdog and under of same game in nfl

There is a negative correlation (not good) but if the spread is between 1.5 and 2.5 it is, broadly speaking, a reasonable play.

[RoadFavorites$$$]

You are a retard

I'm a smart guy. That isn't something you could really pretend to accurately judge on an online forum. I can, however, be sure that you are one of the ugliest mother fuckers in the world. I think most girls would rather take it from Gollum from Lord of the Rings than you.

[Iwinyourmoney]

There is a negative correlation (not good) but if the spread is between 1.5 and 2.5 it is, broadly speaking, a reasonable play.

Ya....I'm talking Super Bowl

[mathdotcom]

There is a negative correlation (not good) but if the spread is between 1.5 and 2.5 it is, broadly speaking, a reasonable play.

[FourLengthsClear]

Either I misread or Iwin edited his post just before I clicked "reply".
My bad.

[mathdotcom]

iwin you fukk quit editing your fukkin posts

bad etiquette iwin

[FourLengthsClear]

iwin you fukk quit editing your fukkin posts

bad etiquette iwin

It was probably me misreading. I am getting old Mathy.

[mathdotcom]

FLC

Kids = -EV

[RoadFavorites$$$]

FLC

Kids = -EV

Tell that to Derrick Rose's mom.

[FourLengthsClear]

FLC

Kids = -EV

You are preaching to the converted on that one. I would sell mine if I could (legally, of course).

[jstblaze]

I love how guys very clearly and mathematically show that no matter what the situation, basketball teasers are not correctly priced to be playable (for any reason other then having action in a way that is guaranteed to lose you money).

And you get a bunch of people [posting their teaser for the night, like they somehow beat the odds.