Help me settle my Iowa Caucus bet.

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  • xtooshortx
    SBR Rookie
    • 05-13-08
    • 3

    #1
    Help me settle my Iowa Caucus bet.
    SBR,

    I would like the imput of some gamblers on this. A friend and I have an ongoing tab of bets, and usually pay out at some later, agreed upon, date. I bet "Romney to Win Iowa", getting 2-1 odds, risking 2.5 betting units. Now the media is saying that Santorum won, but there is no officially declared winner.

    He says that our bet should be reversed. I am saying that it shouldn't based on that 1) no sportsbook is reversing their payout to my knowledge, 2) we made subsequent bets (that i lost) that I argue I wouldn't have made if this bet were initially graded a loss. 3) "winning iowa" imo is who the media declares the winner and reaps the political reward.

    With that said, he claims that 1) the Iowa GOP certified count makes him the winner. 2)subsequent bet considerations are irrelevant and ought not be considered. 3) other sportsbooks decisions ought not be considered due to the nature of our betting.
  • FourLengthsClear
    SBR MVP
    • 12-29-10
    • 3808

    #2
    Tough call but on balance I would have to go with your friend. The certified count is the only official tally.
    Comment
    • floridagolfer
      SBR MVP
      • 12-19-08
      • 2757

      #3
      The fair thing to do is to cancel the bet. You can find places that count one person the winner; you can find places that count someone else the winner. At this moment, there is no right or wrong.
      Comment
      • gafl
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 08-07-06
        • 656

        #4
        The certified count has Santorum up by 34 votes, but the votes from 8 precincts are missing. The thought now is that it may be called a draw.
        Comment
        • RonPaul2008
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 06-08-07
          • 6741

          #5
          Intrade graded Romney winner that night. Tough situation..
          Comment
          • itchypickle
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-05-09
            • 21452

            #6
            Going to be ruled a draw is the latest I've heard reported.
            Comment
            • d2bets
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 08-10-05
              • 39995

              #7
              Originally posted by itchypickle
              Going to be ruled a draw is the latest I've heard reported.
              Ruled by whom? I'm guessing Intrade is not going to reverse something it already finalized and graded.

              I guess a comparable situation (maybe) is where a game is decided and then some time later the league changes the result. Books do not change at later dates. I think this happened with a basketball game a few years ago where they replayed the last minute. Books did not change prior graded results.
              Comment
              • YouMama
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 01-04-12
                • 727

                #8
                it should be a push as it is a "virtual tie" less than 35 votes either way will never be settled, its way to within the margin of error
                Comment
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