take DENVER again +14 vs patriots

[The Madcap]

Didn't we see this game a few weeks ago? And wasn't the score something like 42-21 Brady and the Pats? And wasn't that game IN DENVER? Where the Broncos have always been tough because of that altitude adjustment?

The Pats D is weak against the pass, and yet Tebow completed only 50% of his throws against NE.

Belicheck is not going to take this game lightly. I'm sure that he personally is more motivated to throttle Tebow than any other coach in the league. Belicheck sees himself as Football Jesus, and Tebow is stealing his thunder.

Pats 34
Broncos 13

[zoo youk]

EXACTLY. The Pats' D has been rightly criticized, but look closer. They don't give up a lot of points and they play solid red-zone D. Tebow is gonna have to work, they'll keep everything in front of them. And unless Mankins and some other linemen aren't ready to go or something, Brady gets his -- he is Drew Brees North . Pats should take this by right around 14. I'll prob tease them, but not sure on the O/U

bingo. Pats D #s are a mirage. they give up a ton of yardage but not points. classic bend but dont break. and now you have the advantage of Belicheat already seeing Tebow once and understanding his tendencies.

I'm not laying the 14, I just think its a bad idea to lay or it back it...as imo I think it will be hovering around 14-17 the entire game.

[milwaukee mike]

thats the point dickwad. when the Pats get up double digits they go full throttle and go for the throat. a 10 point lead for them is not good enough. they push to anywhere to 14-24, they do not let up. and im simply saying the Broncos offense is not a team that is built to come from behind from that big of a deficit.

zoo youk so when you're called out on making ridiculously dumb statements then you resort to name calling?

way to make yourself look good

and now i see you came up with another beauty - that the lead will hover around 14-17 the entire game. the only way that happens is if the patriots go up 14-0 and then nobody does anything except kick field goals back and forth.

[ouman101]

Anyone willing to lay 2 TD's (and honestly double digits) in an NFL playoff game is crazy IMO.

[zoo youk]

zoo youk so when you're called out on making ridiculously dumb statements then you resort to name calling?

way to make yourself look good

and now i see you came up with another beauty - that the lead will hover around 14-17 the entire game. the only way that happens is if the patriots go up 14-0 and then nobody does anything except kick field goals back and forth.

and why are you acting like that is out of this world? very possible for the pats to get up 14 at one point, than match scores from there on out.

and bro i said in my very first post i thought it would hover around the # all game. not just now.

[Redchevy]

Didn't we see this game a few weeks ago? And wasn't the score something like 42-21 Brady and the Pats? And wasn't that game IN DENVER? Where the Broncos have always been tough because of that altitude adjustment?

The Pats D is weak against the pass, and yet Tebow completed only 50% of his throws against NE.

Belicheck is not going to take this game lightly. I'm sure that he personally is more motivated to throttle Tebow than any other coach in the league. Belicheck sees himself as Football Jesus, and Tebow is stealing his thunder.

Pats 34
Broncos 13

I'm riding with Madcap. The only way Denver covers or even wins is if Brady goes down early with an injury. If that doesn't happen, NE is going to light this Team up like a Christmas Tree. After 2 NE playoff losses and Bradys' window closing, I firmly believe Belichick will have this team 1000% ready. Pedal to the metal from the opening kickoff. Brady hates losing more than Belichick and he wants to re-write the record books, that is the only reason he's still playing. They are on the door step once again and I believe they won't let it slip away. I couldn't lay 14 with a gun to my head. This has blowout written all over it. JMO on it!!!!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Points??? God doesn't need any points. Bronco's ML +575

[SportsPedagogy]

They beat a banged up Pittsburgh team whose QB on any other team would be out for 6 to 8 weeks,things are not what they appear......

6-8 weeks for a sprained ankle ? I am pretty sure that Romo guy you always bash beat the 49ers with a lung that was punctured ... by his broken rib...

[jjgold]

Pass

Too hard to call

[late4thegame]

..................

[milwaukee mike]

who is Dick Wad?

that is me

my name was originally richard waddington but i shortened it to dick wad

[Goat Milk]

Bellicheck?

Denver will score 17 points at most in the cold.

Brady will score 30.

[lakerboy]

Bellicheck?

Denver will score 17 points at most in the cold.

Brady will score 30.

You could be right but that would mean den covers

[dodger33]

Hey lets look at a box score and make broad assumptions about the next match up. Here is a real prediction. Broncos controlled the first half of that game until McGahee got hurt, then Ball fumbled, then Tebow fumbled, then Cosby fumbled, all before half. Patriots have been starting very slow for over a month and Brady has had back to back awful playoff games. The Broncos will get up early just like they did the last time and barring 3 terrible turnovers and a huge injury they hold onto the lead and Brady makes a comeback in the 2nd half but comes up short. Should be very interesting to see how bad Denver makes the Patriots defense look. They couldn't stop the run the first time around and they didn't have to key on Thomas.

[IamHD]

+ 14 isnt good enough. In my parlay I have them at 16.5 wich makes much more sense considering spreads of double digits cover 73 % of the time according to my independent Research + other cappers.

This is my ticked for week two of the playoffs.

01/14/12Broncos (Denver)+16.5
18:05 MT(-170)
Buying (3 points)
01/15/12Packers (GreenBay)-360
14:35 MT
01/14/12Saints (NewOrleans)-190
14:35 MT
01/15/12Ravens (Baltimore)-4.5
11:05 MT(-190)

Hope this can help anyone on picks.

[mv09]

The only reason Denver moved the ball was because they refused to play a safety over the top and Tebow beat them deep.

Patriots have a horrific defense, quite possibly the worse in the NFL, but they will not let this happen. They'll play Tebow smarter and make him make quick decisions. He won't have the deep throw. He'll be spied and won't be able to run and he'll be forced to make his progressions and quick accurate throw.

With that said, Tebow can't do this well. He needs 3-5 seconds in the pocket and then panics and runs/throws deep. I can see Belichick implementing a Cover 2 with D.Thomas and Eddie Royal. Both run mediocre routes over the middle.

I'm not a Tebow hater. I picked Denver ML vs the Steelers. Check my history, but the magic ends here.

Patriots 34 - Denver 13

[milwaukee mike]

+ 14 isnt good enough. In my parlay I have them at 16.5 wich makes much more sense considering spreads of double digits cover 73 % of the time according to my independent Research + other cappers.

This is my ticked for week two of the playoffs.

01/14/12Broncos (Denver)+16.5
18:05 MT(-170)
Buying (3 points)
01/15/12Packers (GreenBay)-360
14:35 MT
01/14/12Saints (NewOrleans)-190
14:35 MT
01/15/12Ravens (Baltimore)-4.5
11:05 MT(-190)

Hope this can help anyone on picks.

what's the point of buying the numbers 15 and 16 and paying -170 for them? those aren't exactly common ending spread differentials. i didn't run the math but i'm pretty sure it's usually not a good move to buy from 14 to 16.5.
i do like the picks though other than baltimore, which i think could've been better served bought down to 6 1/2 instead.

[dave7166]

Always take 14 pts in the playoffs because it usually works. Sometimes you get a backdoor score but who cares!

[milwaukee mike]

Always take 14 pts in the playoffs because it usually works. Sometimes you get a backdoor score but who cares!

i would love to score in the backdoor but it is against mrs milwaukee's code of conduct