Saints and Patriots in the SB

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  • LeahMichele
    Restricted User
    • 12-30-11
    • 857

    #1
    Saints and Patriots in the SB
    I saw a bet at 5 dimes where you can get + 700 if you bet that Saints and the Patriots will both be in the superbowl. I like this bet. I bet it. It has a great chance.
  • dredmahawkus
    SBR MVP
    • 12-26-09
    • 1803

    #2
    if houston beats cincy then the pats have to play pitt then balt.....going to be tough!
    Comment
    • Coolcanuck79
      SBR MVP
      • 12-07-11
      • 3189

      #3
      I have a sneaking suspicion that the Saints will come out of the NFC and being a Pats fan, I certainly hope they make it too. Good luck on your bet!
      Comment
      • GunShard
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-05-10
        • 10033

        #4
        Remember when the Patriots were humiliated by the Jets and Ravens in the playoffs?
        Comment
        • Dabeergod
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 04-30-10
          • 5503

          #5
          I have the same match up in the SB
          Comment
          • Dkid
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-05-11
            • 761

            #6
            Originally posted by LeahMichele
            I saw a bet at 5 dimes where you can get + 700 if you bet that Saints and the Patriots will both be in the superbowl. I like this bet. I bet it. It has a great chance.
            where?
            Comment
            • Chi_archie
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 07-22-08
              • 63182

              #7
              Seems like it should Pay more, good luck
              Comment
              • Big Bear
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 11-01-11
                • 43253

                #8
                i love it!
                Comment
                • BettingWizard
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 11-28-09
                  • 6522

                  #9
                  terrible value
                  Comment
                  • seaborneq
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 09-08-06
                    • 22556

                    #10
                    I made the bet already. It not too late to cancel your bet.
                    Comment
                    • seaborneq
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 09-08-06
                      • 22556

                      #11
                      Originally posted by BettingWizard
                      terrible value
                      Ok smart guy. One of them is going to hit. Which one has "value"?



                      NFL Super Bowl XLVI - matchup
                      Sat 1/7 4:30PM
                      New England vs Green Bay +300
                      Baltimore vs Green Bay +475
                      New England vs New Orleans +650
                      Pittsburgh vs Green Bay +849
                      Baltimore vs New Orleans +1000
                      Pittsburgh vs New Orleans +1250
                      New England vs San Francisco +1495
                      Denver vs Detroit +2500
                      Baltimore vs San Francisco +2550
                      New England vs New York Giants +2850
                      Houston vs Green Bay +3175
                      Pittsburgh vs San Francisco +3475
                      New England vs Atlanta +4275
                      Baltimore vs New York Giants +4800
                      Cincinnati vs Green Bay +4825
                      Denver vs Green Bay +5450
                      New England vs Detroit +5650
                      Pittsburgh vs New York Giants +6000
                      Houston vs New Orleans +6050
                      Baltimore vs Atlanta +7450
                      Baltimore vs Detroit +8400
                      Cincinnati vs New Orleans +9200
                      Pittsburgh vs Atlanta +9500
                      Houston vs San Francisco +10000
                      Pittsburgh vs Detroit +10000
                      Denver vs New Orleans +10400
                      Cincinnati vs San Francisco +18500
                      Denver vs San Francisco +21000
                      Cincinnati vs Atlanta +22000
                      Cincinnati vs Detroit +23000
                      Denver vs Atlanta +23000
                      Houston vs New York Giants +23000
                      Houston vs Atlanta +25000
                      Cincinnati vs New York Giants +27500
                      Houston vs Detroit +27500
                      Denver vs New York Giants +30000
                      Comment
                      • ProfaneReality
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 04-14-09
                        • 7607

                        #12
                        I imagine you'd be better off taking your wager amount and rolling it over on each ML up to the superbowl
                        Comment
                        • eidolon
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 01-02-08
                          • 9547

                          #13
                          Baltimore vs New Orleans +1000
                          Comment
                          • mathdotcom
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 03-24-08
                            • 11689

                            #14
                            HORRIBLE odds
                            Comment
                            • baskets
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-24-11
                              • 11691

                              #15
                              not a chance in hell.

                              Pats setting themselves up for a major crash. Those Miami and Buffalo games... down 38 pts combined.... that's called foreshadowing. Against real teams they lose in their own building. Good chance it'll happen again this year.
                              Comment
                              • SASH
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-09-11
                                • 3200

                                #16
                                pittsburgh vs giants +6000 is my bet
                                Comment
                                • john230
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 07-24-11
                                  • 721

                                  #17
                                  If New England had a better defense I would agree. Then again with Big Ben's bum ankle and Ravens struggles on the roadn it may be a good play.
                                  Comment
                                  • Monte
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-21-10
                                    • 2056

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by seaborneq
                                    Ok smart guy. One of them is going to hit. Which one has "value"?



                                    New England vs Green Bay +300
                                    Let's make an example out of this one...
                                    100 to win 300

                                    Will the Patriots win the AFC Conference? No -116 (Pinny line)
                                    116 to win 100

                                    Now if the Pats don't make it, you'd break even.
                                    If the Pats make it and GB doesn't, loss of 216.
                                    Your bets would be on GB making it to avoid a loss, odds for this are -130.

                                    But you don't *win* if NE doesn't make it, unlike with the -130 line. This will happen about 50% of the time. You bet 216 to win 300 with a 50% less chance of winning, which would roughly mean you bet 216 to win 150 instead of 130 to win 100. Or converted: 216 to win 150 instead of 195 to win 150.

                                    Result: A straight bet on Gb to win the conference at -130 is better value...confused alrdy?
                                    Comment
                                    • LeahMichele
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 12-30-11
                                      • 857

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ProfaneReality
                                      I imagine you'd be better off taking your wager amount and rolling it over on each ML up to the superbowl

                                      No because now the Patriots get to play the Broncos, when the +700 assumed 85% likelihood they would play Pitt. Now their raod is much easier. The Pats are -800 ML some places this week, the Saints are -180. They will both win this weekend and iF I put the $100 parlayed saints and Pats this week I would come out with about $200. Take the $200 and parlay them both next week I would probably come out with $650-$700 assuming Pats are -200 and Saints are +150. This way I will come out with 800. Would have worked better your way if the Steelers won because the pats wouldnt be -800 against the steelers, maybe only -250 against the steelers. Still I take the +700 because you never know who will win the other games. I still believe it will be pats and saints for the SB even though the pats Defense isnt great, they will still beat Denver then they face Balt or Houston at NE. also I think NYG might beat GB so if that happens then my teams are favs in every game they played so that way my 100 would only turn into 400 or 450. and come on everyone knows if doesnt matter that the pats got smoked a couple games during the season. every team got smoked some times, this is the playoffs its a whole new time and the Pats are at home.
                                      Comment
                                      • LeahMichele
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 12-30-11
                                        • 857

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by mathdotcom
                                        HORRIBLE odds
                                        I dont understand how you can say this when you dont know who they play. Is it still horrible odds if NE plays Denver then Houston both in NE. and if NO plays at SF then home against NYG ? NO then its great odds.
                                        Comment
                                        • will2survive
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 11-26-09
                                          • 8099

                                          #21
                                          Saints vs. Patriots-- primary bet

                                          Packers vs. Patriots--backup bet (Never underestimate Rodgers but Brees is on fire)
                                          Comment
                                          • Muscles
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 01-16-11
                                            • 314

                                            #22
                                            The AFC is a little weaker this year and that's a good thing for a little down of a Patriots team. Especially on defense. I see a great showdown for the NFC between GB and the Saints but I don't see the Saints winning in that environment.
                                            Comment
                                            • LeahMichele
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 12-30-11
                                              • 857

                                              #23
                                              I think NYG gonna beat GB
                                              Comment
                                              • LeahMichele
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 12-30-11
                                                • 857

                                                #24
                                                Whether this play wins or looses, I think Its undeniable that those of us who bet this got great value. 5 dimes has now put up sides and Moneylines on the possible conf. championship matchups as well. So the 5 games look like this

                                                NO -600 against Detriot WINNER
                                                NE - 800 against Denver
                                                NO -190 against SF
                                                NE -250 against BALT ( even higher if its HOU, but I use -250 )
                                                NO + 175 against GB ( They are -250 if its against NYG )

                                                Using a parlay calculator and using the worst possible odds which is -600, -800, -190, -250, and + 175, the parlay calculator says it should have only been +565. And if Houston or NYG win this weekend, waiting to play this would have lowered the payout from +565 down into the range of +400 to +450, so no this bet is not "horrible odds" at all, it is in fact GREAT odds.
                                                Comment
                                                • LeahMichele
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 12-30-11
                                                  • 857

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Coolcanuck79
                                                  I have a sneaking suspicion that the Saints will come out of the NFC and being a Pats fan, I certainly hope they make it too. Good luck on your bet!

                                                  Thanks. I think your Pats will be there.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • beerman2619
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-24-09
                                                    • 7752

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by LeahMichele
                                                    I think NYG gonna beat GB

                                                    Comment
                                                    • BaLLcappin99
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 01-11-12
                                                      • 118

                                                      #27
                                                      over/under 72.5
                                                      Comment
                                                      • GamblerSpirit
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-18-11
                                                        • 4085

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by seaborneq
                                                        Ok smart guy. One of them is going to hit. Which one has "value"?



                                                        NFL Super Bowl XLVI - matchup
                                                        Sat 1/7 4:30PM
                                                        New England vs Green Bay +300
                                                        Baltimore vs Green Bay +475
                                                        New England vs New Orleans +650
                                                        Pittsburgh vs Green Bay +849
                                                        Baltimore vs New Orleans +1000
                                                        Pittsburgh vs New Orleans +1250
                                                        New England vs San Francisco +1495
                                                        Denver vs Detroit +2500
                                                        Baltimore vs San Francisco +2550
                                                        New England vs New York Giants +2850
                                                        Houston vs Green Bay +3175
                                                        Pittsburgh vs San Francisco +3475
                                                        New England vs Atlanta +4275
                                                        Baltimore vs New York Giants +4800
                                                        Cincinnati vs Green Bay +4825
                                                        Denver vs Green Bay +5450
                                                        New England vs Detroit +5650
                                                        Pittsburgh vs New York Giants +6000
                                                        Houston vs New Orleans +6050
                                                        Baltimore vs Atlanta +7450
                                                        Baltimore vs Detroit +8400
                                                        Cincinnati vs New Orleans +9200
                                                        Pittsburgh vs Atlanta +9500
                                                        Houston vs San Francisco +10000
                                                        Pittsburgh vs Detroit +10000
                                                        Denver vs New Orleans +10400
                                                        Cincinnati vs San Francisco +18500
                                                        Denver vs San Francisco +21000
                                                        Cincinnati vs Atlanta +22000
                                                        Cincinnati vs Detroit +23000
                                                        Denver vs Atlanta +23000
                                                        Houston vs New York Giants +23000
                                                        Houston vs Atlanta +25000
                                                        Cincinnati vs New York Giants +27500
                                                        Houston vs Detroit +27500
                                                        Denver vs New York Giants +30000

                                                        Pats/Saints is so square. Is this the year of the squares?

                                                        Ravens/GB
                                                        Ravens/NY
                                                        Ravens/Niners
                                                        Ravens/Saints
                                                        Pats/NY
                                                        Pats/GB

                                                        Those are the only lines I would play and in this order. Ravens/GB is the the most realistic one IMO. It's only the second smallest line there is, too.

                                                        P.S. Dark horse being the Texans.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • LeahMichele
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 12-30-11
                                                          • 857

                                                          #29
                                                          so you would take lower payout odds ( +475 vs. +650 ) on a play that has less chance just so you can have the 15-1 and defending champion Packers ? and we are square ? LOL.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • GamblerSpirit
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-18-11
                                                            • 4085

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by LeahMichele
                                                            so you would take lower payout odds ( +475 vs. +650 ) on a play that has less chance just so you can have the 15-1 and defending champion Packers ? and we are square ? LOL.
                                                            Great bet. Stay in the kitchen.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BettingWizard
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 11-28-09
                                                              • 6522

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by BettingWizard
                                                              terrible value
                                                              Comment
                                                              • DOMINATER
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-10-09
                                                                • 3698

                                                                #32
                                                                pats will be there easy way in
                                                                Comment
                                                                • cankid
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 08-22-08
                                                                  • 7268

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by LeahMichele
                                                                  I saw a bet at 5 dimes where you can get + 700 if you bet that Saints and the Patriots will both be in the superbowl. I like this bet. I bet it. It has a great chance.
                                                                  I guess that cant happen but the Patriots looked unbeatable today
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • seaborneq
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 09-08-06
                                                                    • 22556

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Great odds on baltimore vs giants +4800
                                                                    Comment
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