Shari? Need your tennis input please

[stevenash]

7:00P 104 M.Baghdatis Games Won +4 -110 versus Andy Murray?

[jjgold]

Murray has not looked good early this year
Baghdatis rarely plays well against good players

Nasher your move

[shari91]

Murray's dropped a set this week to two guys he really shouldn't have, has played like dog poo a lot of the time; Marcos loves Australia, has massive crowd support, has been serving like a demon. BUT: They are doubles partners this week which is sometimes a worry because you never know what deals they make considering this is a smaller tourney, what they pick up on each other's game, etc... In this case I don't think it will be an issue.

Good bet Nashie. Murray's never beaten him in straights and Baggy's kicked his butt a few times. Look around and see if you can still get the 5 somewhere though. I'm thinking of taking Baggy straight up as my first play this week in Brissie. Still debating

[EaglesPhan36]

Baghdatis rarely plays well against good players

Took sets off Djokovic last year in both meetings. Played close against Murray and beat Murray. On fast surfaces, he competes. Clay, not so much. Sober up Gold.

[shari91]

Took sets off Djokovic last year in both meetings. Played close against Murray and beat Murray. On fast surfaces, he competes. Clay, not so much. Sober up Gold.

Yeah and when he's down here, it's a whole different ballgame altogether. The guy is basically a local and he's one of the players that not only loves the courts here but feeds off the crowd support.

The only thing holding me back is that I'm pretty sure I haven't bet Baggy since he f'd me for a lot of money last year in the Aussie. Yeah my bet pushed but it doesn't matter. I'll never forget him retiring with only two games left to go - or how much I flipped out on the forum because my winnings vanished with that wimpy act of his. Posting from my iPhone that whole time. Which I threw at the wall at one point during my tirade That's one of those things that stings for a longggggg time.

[brettels]

So it sounds like the best bet may be to take bagdahtis to win a set @1.83 or whatever depending where you bet! Nice odds

[shari91]

So it sounds like the best bet may be to take bagdahtis to win a set @1.83 or whatever depending where you bet! Nice odds

I mean, it's one of those bets where you just don't know. Does Murray win in two against Baggy for the first time ever but Baggy keeps it close? Then you want the handicap. Does Murray or Baggy win in 3 but Baggy wouldn't cover the handi because he bombed a set? Then you want the Baggy to win 1 set bet. So hard to tell. I do know though that either Murray will lose or he'll have to fight very hard to win. Baggy's not winning the Aussie but he can win this tournament. Murray doesn't give two shits because he can win the Aussie... and has been playing like it other than maybe 3 games against Muller. I'm still debating... so hard for me to take Baggy ML but I really think he's got this one. I'm going to have to look at some numbers a bit more before deciding though. I wish we had tape on their doubles match. That would help so much.

[brettels]

You'll be upset taking baggy ML only and he loses 2-1....murray is only 1.10 to win a set and the way he's been playing he could lose in straights. No bet for me, will enjoy watching it though.

[shari91]

You'll be upset taking baggy ML only and he loses 2-1....murray is only 1.10 to win a set and the way he's been playing he could lose in straights. No bet for me, will enjoy watching it though.

Yeah I should probably just follow Nashie and take the handicap and be done with it. Or just stay strong and not bet on tennis until next week. Can't believe I've managed to avoid making one bet so far. Sooooo hard though with constant tv coverage. Part of me hopes Baggy kicks Murray's ass and then the other part keeps dwelling on last year and wants to see him fake a pinkie injury again so he doesn't have a loss recorded

Ugh.... if you change your mind, PM me and let me know, just so I have some more feedback. I'll be around in the morning for this one

[EaglesPhan36]

Plus Baghdatis is being picked heavily over at T.I. - seen plenty a blood bath when everyone is on the dog. I think the handicap is the way to go if you like Baghdatis because Murray is a sand bagging SOB, so you never know if he might feel like playing today or if his injuries are legit or whatever at this point. Any way you shake it, you should be making these plays smaller than usual until the Australian Open starts IMO.

[shari91]

Plus Baghdatis is being picked heavily over at T.I. - seen plenty a blood bath when everyone is on the dog. I think the handicap is the way to go if you like Baghdatis because Murray is a sand bagging SOB, so you never know if he might feel like playing today or if his injuries are legit or whatever at this point. Any way you shake it, you should be making these plays smaller than usual until the Australian Open starts IMO.

They've been doing well over there though on picking off dogs lately... that Kanepi pick was awesome. Couldn't believe some of that. Not sure if I would've jumped on board that train although I can't stand Petko.

The handicap is the way to go - you're 100% right. But you know how much I love the dog MLs

It's either Baggy handi or nothing for me. And yes - no one should be betting their roll this bloody week at all. Speaking of which, are you thinking of doing a contest for Sydney? I'll do the usual for the Aussie but I think Sydney would be a good way to get us all into the spirit... I'm in if you are

[stevenash]

Since WVU did me well last night , I'm taking +4 handicap for hundy.

[Coolcanuck79]

Is taking Baggy to lose 2 sets to 1 at +300 good value?

[brettels]

Handicap is too small for me in this case as Murray tends to smash people in the third set, my bookie has the handicap at 3.5 now and too low are the odds to take an alternative hcap! 5.5 @1.33 naaaah

[shari91]

Handicap is too small for me in this case as Murray tends to smash people in the third set, my bookie has the handicap at 3.5 now and too low are the odds to take an alternative hcap! 5.5 @1.33 naaaah

Pinny has him +4 -113. Bad bookie

[shari91]

Wait... now +4, +101.

Yeah I'm on that. Only for $50 though.

[brettels]

The 3.5 is @2.08

[shari91]

Does Pinny show worse odds if you're not logged in? They must... no way the odds dropped like that in 30 seconds.

Sneaky sneaky.

[shari91]

Is taking Baggy to lose 2 sets to 1 at +300 good value?

It's worth $10. Seriously. This isn't an important tournament so everyone's just guessing on air here... I like that bet in a way but not anything to put any sort of cash on. TEN DOLLARS CANUCKER

[Coolcanuck79]

It's worth $10. Seriously. This isn't an important tournament so everyone's just guessing on air here... I like that bet in a way but not anything to put any sort of cash on. TEN DOLLARS CANUCKER

Thanks for your feedback

[brettels]

Shari knew the fix was on! Robbed everyone!

[jjgold]

Taking a set off someone means nothing

Winning a match does

[brettels]

It was a joke

[MatI]

What does the brains trust think about the Berdych/Nielsen (hopman cup) game?

Nielsen has been running the opposition close in his previous matches. Is Nielson +6.0 @ 2.00 worth a play? Seems pretty tasty to me....

The other option i was considering for this matchup is Over 18 games @ 1.83

[ttwarrior1]

....

[shari91]

Shari knew the fix was on! Robbed everyone!

haha I didn't even get the chance to watch because people came over. But from what I've been reading, Baggy was dying in the heat. I'm telling you - this week is an absolute coin flip. May as well bet on two ants racing down the sidewalk.

[shari91]

And Mat - I haven't watched any Hopman Cup matches so I really don't know what Berdych looks like this week at all. I rarely trust him with my cash though regardless of what type of bet I'm placing... he's very unpredictable.

[MatI]

no worries Shari. thanks! I decided to stay away.