Some pretty nice value in the MLB today...

biggamer3 · 08-25-08, 12:03 PM

I like Astros a lot today

picantel · 08-25-08, 12:11 PM

took pirates (+1.5) +105

element1286 · 08-25-08, 12:13 PM

Like them both, but I just took the Astros.

RogueJuror · 08-25-08, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

I think we should finally see a decent dog day in the MLB today. Three plays that I love today:

Chicago Cubs (Lilly) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Karstens) +170
Houston Astros (Moehler) +195 at NY Mets (Pelfrey)
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles +105 (First 5 Innings)

Karstens has been lights out since coming over to the Pirates while Lilly has struggled against the Pirates lineup. This is a great price for a team with a SP edge, at home, in a divisional game, against a team whose slugger is battling an injury.

Brian Moehler has been pitching well lately and the Astros lineup hits RHP well. Pelfrey hashad his struggles as well and the NYM bullpen could give the game away anyway.

The Orioles have a SP edge at home as well. However, Richard probably won't last too far into this one and the White Sox have a clear edge in the pen. So I'm playing them in the first five innings...

I also like two totals for the day:

Oakland (Braden) at LA Angels (Weaver) OVR 8
Minnesota (Liriano) at Seattle (Batista) OVR 8.5

My only concern is whether the Mariners can get a few runs off of Liriano and the Twins pen. If they get 3, this game should go over.

Looks like a dog day in the MLB to me today...

Good post Monkey!

ryanXL977 · 08-25-08, 12:40 PM

karstens has a 5 era at home, a 1.5 whip, and hasnt won a game
im not ripping your pick, but to say he has been lights out isnt true

Kingctb27 · 08-25-08, 12:58 PM

Yep, Cubs line is falling, time to pounce on the Cubs today.

Karstens is nothing but a pumpkin.

element1286 · 08-25-08, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

karstens has a 5 era at home, a 1.5 whip, and hasnt won a game
im not ripping your pick, but to say he has been lights out isnt true

He has only pitched 13 innings at PNC Park, and 39 home innings total in his career, I don't see how those stats are relevant at all.

ryanXL977 · 08-25-08, 01:05 PM

if thats the case, how can we use any stats from his career so far? the sample size is meaningless

MonkeyF0cker · 08-25-08, 01:07 PM

Those two losses came against Santana and Volquez and he got no run support. He gave up 4 runs and 3 runs respectively. Still not poor outings. Yeah he has been better on the road but that's an anomoly in a small sample size...

ryanXL977 · 08-25-08, 01:10 PM

i may do pitt today, i just dont know if karstens is the reason why

MonkeyF0cker · 08-25-08, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by Kingctb27

Yep, Cubs line is falling, time to pounce on the Cubs today.

Karstens is nothing but a pumpkin.

If Karstens is a pumpkin, Lilly is squash.

ryanXL977 · 08-25-08, 01:12 PM

that may be true, but there is no evidnce that karstens is anything to write home about

still, pitt+170 aint bad value

gm2022 · 08-25-08, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

that may be true, but there is no evidnce that karstens is anything to write home about

still, pitt+170 aint bad value

who you liking today ryan?

Kingctb27 · 08-25-08, 01:14 PM

Betting on Pitt is a grave mistake boys. Don't do it.

element1286 · 08-25-08, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

if thats the case, how can we use any stats from his career so far? the sample size is meaningless

If you are looking at pure numbers they are absolutely meaningless, especially since they are from multiple seasons and some are out of the bullpen. But there is context in the way a guy pitches, who he starts opposite of, who he is facing in the order, and how well the opposing lineup is hitting, was he making bad pitches and they were missing them or making good pitches and getting hit.

ryanXL977 · 08-25-08, 01:15 PM

right, thats true
did you or anyone here watch all 4 starts he made? i watched 2 of them. not terribly impressed

fifawcs · 08-25-08, 01:16 PM

Pirates and Astros are traps. Pelfrey is a beast at home. It is not worth fading him even if Moehler is opposing him. The Stros are much more successful against lefties. As for the Pirates, do you really think Karstens will shut down the Cubs offense again? I used to follow him when he was a Yankee. He would often get hot and then go extremely cold. Look for him to go cold today. I personally am not on this game at all. The Value is in the O's and Royals for today gentlemen.

Sinister Cat · 08-25-08, 01:16 PM

I have Karstens as slightly better than league average right now, and Lilly significantly so. Pirates are definitely the play in that one, though I prefer Oakland and Seattle among the dogs tonight. I am running real bad lately though so those are probably fade material.

fifawcs · 08-25-08, 01:18 PM

Oakland could be good today. They suck, but so does Weaver.

element1286 · 08-25-08, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

right, thats true
did you or anyone here watch all 4 starts he made? i watched 2 of them. not terribly impressed

I watched 3, Arizona, Chicago, and the Reds. He doesn't have great stuff by any means, but I would characterize him as "knowing how to pitch", changing speeds, and moving the ball around the zone, and good control. If I had to peg him I'd put him in the 4/5 starter role, which is just below average I guess.

Obviously if he is missing his spots he is going to get hit, and if he is hitting them the Pirates have a chance.

ryanXL977 · 08-25-08, 01:24 PM

yeah, i agree with all that. so we are all in agreement karstens is a number 4 at best, therefore his stats dont mean a lot bc he is average as they come
so we are simply picking them bc they are a home dog right?

fifawcs · 08-25-08, 01:31 PM

The only big dog that has a chance to cash today is Oakland. I do realize they have no offense, but Weaver blows.

element1286 · 08-25-08, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

yeah, i agree with all that. so we are all in agreement karstens is a number 4 at best, therefore his stats dont mean a lot bc he is average as they come
so we are simply picking them bc they are a home dog right?

Personally, I see Lilly as marginally better than Karstens now. And the Pirates are due for an offensive outburst, having so many baserunners in the past 4 games and only scoring 14 runs. I am thinking about making a play on the over as well.

MonkeyF0cker · 08-25-08, 01:37 PM

Lilly is nothing more than average either, IMO. And the Cubs don't hit RHP nearly as well. The Pirates hit LHP about equally as well as the Cubs do with RHP. The real reason you should take the Pirates is value. If the Cubs win, it's still the correct play as the Cubs line is inflated in this contest. They should be nothing more than -155 or so...

Kingctb27 · 08-25-08, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Lilly is nothing more than average either, IMO. And the Cubs don't hit RHP nearly as well. The Pirates hit LHP about equally as well as the Cubs do with RHP. The real reason you should take the Pirates is value. If the Cubs win, it's still the correct play as the Cubs line is inflated in this contest. They should be nothing more than -155 or so...

The line is dropping. Over half the money going on the Pirates who are just trash.

Cubs are the play. And no it's not the right play if the Pirates lose to the best team in baseball.

MonkeyF0cker · 08-25-08, 01:59 PM

Then you know very little about handicapping...

Mike Rose · 08-25-08, 02:35 PM

Lilly took a frustrating loss his last timne out against the Reds...don't look for Pitt to get much off him tonight as I believe He'll be locked in.

Karstens made the Cubbies line-up look real mediocre in his Wrigley start a couple weeks ago. After slumbering through the week vs. CIN and WSH, Cubbies offense caught fire Sunday afternoon and I expect it to carry over to PNC where they've historically crushed the ball....

ryanXL977 · 08-25-08, 02:42 PM

i would not touch cubs here
its pitt or nothing

ryanXL977 · 08-25-08, 02:43 PM

does pitt have any pen left from yesterday though?

MonkeyF0cker · 08-25-08, 02:52 PM

Yeah Sanchez and Beam are rested (4 and 2 days). They are both RHP too...

ryanXL977 · 08-25-08, 03:01 PM

i see no reason not to do pitt, no reason
home dogs, do it!

jjgold · 08-25-08, 03:15 PM

Houston is an underrated team the last 30 games or so, it is worth a shot.

ryanXL977 · 08-25-08, 03:20 PM

agreed

Chi_archie · 08-25-08, 03:23 PM

Karstens has had 2 avg-above avg starts at home

1 very good start shutting out the cubs in wrigley and 1 absolutely lights out start against arizona, pitching 7 2/3 perfect innings...

I do think that the bullpen, which is shaky already... will be a problem in this one... beam and sanchez are AAA pitchers..as is most of the pirate bullpen outside of grabow.