My College Football Picks Week 1 (Video)

VegasDave · 08-25-08, 02:23 AM

Originally posted by gm2022

Gl to you sir, this year, It may be a sucker bet but I think V-tech -10 has value. I know v-tech offense is no good but beamer ball and the way their d is I like. Either way Good luck this year, looking forward to your videos.

Fair enough. Was looking at this game, but I'll need to see a few games out of V Tech before I consider betting on them. I have trouble rationalizing giving up 10 points on a road team with a questionable offense. They are certainly the better team, I just don't see the value. But good luck if you take a shot on it

donjuan · 08-25-08, 02:26 AM

I hope this is recreational.

VegasDave · 08-25-08, 02:36 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

I hope this is recreational.

That's really nice of you. Good luck to you this weekend too.

rossta4i · 08-25-08, 02:38 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

A couple things I noticed:

1) You are quick to believe that June Jones (SMU) will make an immediate impact or that things will be exactly alike they were while he wa in Hawaii. While it's true, Jones will set up a similar offense like he did over on the islands, but usually these things take time to develop and it's not uncommon for a season or two to pass before it gets set up. Other times, a coach may entirely abandon an offensive/defensive scheme he used at a different program. Steve Spurrier is a perfect example of that. You have to consider these things team by team. Now, SMU has some athletes (i.e. Justin Willis) and Conference USA and the WAC have about the same quality of athletes, but still this is a different program that really struggled last year. Not sure, 74.5 is a high total and I know SMU took a drop offensively last year....I'd be hesistant but I'd need to look at it more.
2) You don't want to say "I am not an Auburn fan..." In fact, your fandom should never interfere with your ability to handicap a game/match. It's my recommendation that you abandon your desire to be a fan of any particular team so that you can concentrate more objectively on the games you are handicapping. Being a fan of a team is one of the worst qualities you can have as a gambler. Emotional involvement clouds judgment and should never be used as a factor to bet on or against a particular team. It's difficult at first, but it's a necessity if you want to do well. You'll need to remember that down the line.....

Good luck this year.....

I would be careful about the over in this game...I agree with the statement above. June Jones need time to develop the team with his system. His system is about timing with the WR and the QB, it's about reading coverage and adjusting to that. It take about a season or two to get the system down. Look at Brennan, it took him his second season to fully understand the system and look what happened. If this was JJ second season at SMU then I would jump on the over. But good luck to you with this game.

Sorry I gotta say a couple things about Hawaii. They're still running the run and shoot offense but are gonna run from under center most of the time. I think the defense will keep them in the game. Best d unit in 15 years. D line is solid LB crew should be top 15 in the nation this year. D backs have a couple NFL type players Ryan Mouton and Jameel Dowling. The O is a different story not as much fire power as the year before but can still put up numbers. The WR crew should not be a big drop, only reason is never had a chance to play last year cause June Jones doesn't substitute his WR's. O-line coming along just fine. Leon Wright-Jackson should have a break out year at RB.

Maybe I'm just a fan to much. But just to give you some insight about Hawaii.

Good luck this year. Just hope for the best for you. Aloha

donjuan · 08-25-08, 02:41 AM

That's really nice of you. Good luck to you this weekend too.

It wasn't intended to be mean. You don't know that the game is being played at a neutral site for 2 of the games you bet on? Your analysis for a 7 point road favorite is that they are simply the more talented team? This is recreational betting. There's nothing wrong with it, but don't expect to have an edge.

VegasDave · 08-25-08, 02:46 AM

Originally posted by rossta4i

I would be careful about the over in this game...I agree with the statement above. June Jones need time to develop the team with his system. His system is about timing with the WR and the QB, it's about reading coverage and adjusting to that. It take about a season or two to get the system down. Look at Brennan, it took him his second season to fully understand the system and look what happened. If this was JJ second season at SMU then I would jump on the over. But good luck to you with this game.

Sorry I gotta say a couple things about Hawaii. They're still running the run and shoot offense but are gonna run from under center most of the time. I think the defense will keep them in the game. Best d unit in 15 years. D line is solid LB crew should be top 15 in the nation this year. D backs have a couple NFL type players Ryan Mouton and Jameel Dowling. The O is a different story not as much fire power as the year before but can still put up numbers. The WR crew should not be a big drop, only reason is never had a chance to play last year cause June Jones doesn't substitute his WR's. O-line coming along just fine. Leon Wright-Jackson should have a break out year at RB.

Maybe I'm just a fan to much. But just to give you some insight about Hawaii.

Good luck this year. Just hope for the best for you. Aloha

Thanks for the insight on Hawaii... I'm actually a big fan of the team too and hope the drop off this year isn't too big.

But as you should know as a Hawaii fan from last year's Georgia game, the battles on the lines between an SEC powerhouse and a WAC powerhouse just aren't comparable. I appreciate your high hopes for Hawaii this year and hope you are spot on in your assessments of how good they will be; and if this game were being played Week 8 that would be one thing. But new coach, new system, new players, IN Florida... I just think this particular game will be waaaay too much for them.

Last year Rice put up 31 PPG, including 40+ 4 times (one 56)... and keep in mind you are dealing with an absolutely pitiful SMU defense AND that entire offense with another year under its belt and at home. I may be giving Jones way too much credit but morale is high at SMU that they can put some points and wins up this season, and against a dogshit defense team like Rice, ANY system works... Last year they gave up less then 30 only twice (Nicholls State included), gave up 40+ 8 times including 3 50+s. It may be 49 - 28 Rice, it may be 42 - 35, but no matter how you cut it I don't see this game being anything other then a shootout.

VegasDave · 08-25-08, 02:55 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

It wasn't intended to be mean. You don't know that the game is being played at a neutral site for 2 of the games you bet on? Your analysis for a 7 point road favorite is that they are simply the more talented team? This is recreational betting. There's nothing wrong with it, but don't expect to have an edge.

Before actually betting money on any game instead of just making the pick, I would look more in depth at the game, so I would have discovered the neutral sites. The problem stemmed from the fact that I wanted to get this video out so I hurried it more than I should have. I assumed that the HOME team meant they were playing at HOME. Didn't think to double check it before making this video... now I know.

My analysis as to why Tennessee is the pick is much more in depth then just the fact that they are more talented, but I had to keep the video under 10 minutes (youtube regulations) and barely made it under with 10 seconds to go. I would have liked to have gone into more detail on most of these games, but was already running long, and plus I like to keep it relatively short and concise.

In any case, it is "recreational"... I don't have any money to gamble really. But I gamble with my pride because I'm very passionate about this... I put myself out there every year with these picks and I spend hours upon hours of unpaid time working on things for a website that only a few people bother with. You'll have to excuse me for getting defensive over your comments, its just hard to be written off as "recreational" like I'm a joke or something when I'm really putting alot into this.

rossta4i · 08-25-08, 02:59 AM

Yeah I just hope Hawaii will make a game of it that's all I can hope for. I really wish you luck in the SMU/Rice game. I forgot that June Jones doesn't really concentrate on his D. He thinks he can out score any team and if the game come down to just Offense I take June Jones any day. Thanks for the additional Information on the smu/rice game.

donjuan · 08-25-08, 03:28 AM

In any case, it is "recreational"... I don't have any money to gamble really. But I gamble with my pride because I'm very passionate about this... I put myself out there every year with these picks and I spend hours upon hours of unpaid time working on things for a website that only a few people bother with. You'll have to excuse me for getting defensive over your comments, its just hard to be written off as "recreational" like I'm a joke or something when I'm really putting alot into this.

I guess I'm unclear why you spend all this time doing such. If it's because you enjoy it, then there is no need to be defensive. But being completely honest, your analysis is very unlikely to beat the market and is a waste of time. If you are stubborn and refuse to recognize this, then I feel sorry for you. If you can recognize this and still do so because you like to know more about the players and teams you are watching, enjoy. Hence my hope that you are doing this recreationally without the expectation of having an edge.

VegasDave · 08-25-08, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

I guess I'm unclear why you spend all this time doing such. If it's because you enjoy it, then there is no need to be defensive. But being completely honest, your analysis is very unlikely to beat the market and is a waste of time. If you are stubborn and refuse to recognize this, then I feel sorry for you. If you can recognize this and still do so because you like to know more about the players and teams you are watching, enjoy. Hence my hope that you are doing this recreationally without the expectation of having an edge.

Okay, so my analysis is a complete waste of time and I don't have an edge. I'll accept that if you can please help me learn how I can get better and get an edge?

donjuan · 08-25-08, 03:12 PM

Start with line shopping.

NEP Dynasty · 08-25-08, 03:46 PM

Nothing wrong with being a recreational bettor.

VegasDave · 08-25-08, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by NEP Dynasty

Nothing wrong with being a recreational bettor.

Hopefully it doesn't lose my money too fast

bbyhill · 08-25-08, 07:42 PM

Nice vid Dave,keep them coming

VegasDave · 08-26-08, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by bbyhill

Nice vid Dave,keep them coming

Thanks bud

VegasDave · 08-27-08, 12:27 AM

Rice/SMU all the way down to 71 I'm considering all in

VegasDave · 08-28-08, 12:05 AM

Rice O/U is down to 70!!! Pound this over HARD fellas!!!

accuscoresucks · 08-28-08, 12:19 AM

you awake usc
the season is upon us

VegasDave · 08-28-08, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by accuscoresucks

you awake usc
the season is upon us

I'm ALL IN my friend...

Parlay 1.00 56.58
Football - 149 Utah +145 for Game
Football - 199 Florida Atlantic +2250 for Game

Money Line 2.00 45.00
Football - 199 Florida Atlantic +2250 for Game

Money Line 10.00 14.50
Football - 149 Utah +145 for Game

Spread 11.00 10.00
Football - 178 Florida -35 -110 for Game

Spread 11.00 10.00
Football - 185 USC -19½ -110 for Game

Spread 11.00 10.00
Football - 188 Clemson -5 -110 for Game

Spread 11.00 10.00
Football - 190 Arizona U -27 -110 for Game

Spread 11.00 10.00
Football - 196 Auburn -26½ -110 for Game

Spread 11.00 10.00
Football - 199 Florida Atlantic +24 -110 for Game

Spread 22.00 20.00
Football - 202 Kansas -36 -110 for Game

Spread 11.00 10.00
Football - 210 Colorado State +11 -110 for Game

Parlay 10.00 64.67
Football - 147 SMU/Rice over 72 -110 for Game
Football - 148 Rice -3½ -110 for Game
Football - 185 USC -1500 for Game
Football - 202 Kansas -36 -110 for Game

Total 22.00 20.00
Football - 147 SMU/Rice over 72 -110 for Game

Parlay 108.60 220.68
Football - 147 SMU/Rice over 70 -110 for Game
Football - 148 Rice -170 for Game

LETS KILL THE BOOKS WITH THIS RICE/OVER!!!!

VegasDave · 08-30-08, 01:18 AM

Certainly started off the weekend off right!

My favorite play (despite saying Florida in the video) is Kansas. Didn't lose many starters and are playing against the absolute worst team in college football. Any reason this game shouldn't finish 56 - 3?

BestPlay2day · 08-30-08, 09:39 AM

Enjoyed your video. I agree with Utah getting the upset at Michigan and I have them at +3.5. Utah is my sleeper and has a good chance to be undefeated going into their big matchup with BYU at home last game of the year.

Like your honesty about your record and saying you're a recreational bettor. You're only 22 and smart enough to know you don't have a bankroll to bet hundreds per game (not yet at least). Good luck this season and look forward to your next video.

VegasDave · 08-30-08, 06:14 PM

Rice/SMU Over
Florida -34.5
USC -19.5
Utah ML

I am 4 - 0 to start of the season fellas! Can't ask for a better start to a season, everythings been going just the way I capped it. Great luck. Now I just need Kansas to win and I will have an absolutely huge weekend on my hands!

bmw530i · 08-30-08, 06:17 PM

haha yes USC...on my spreadsheet I am 6-1 today...and I had 2 teasers in play that won plus my straight bets..wow this is a sick start...USC who you on tonight?

VegasDave · 08-30-08, 06:30 PM

Have Kansas -36 for 2 units but also have a unit on 4 teamer Rice -3.5 / Over 72 / USC ML / Kansas -36 so if that game hits I will win 8.5 units!! Was considering a hedge but I bet it strong for a reason, I loved it.

Also have FAU +23, AUB -26.5, Zona -27, and Clemson -5, but only small wagers on those. This is a winning weekend no matter what but a Kansas -36 would break things WIDE open.

VegasDave · 08-31-08, 01:32 AM

Absolutely brutal on Kansas... Instead of winning $115 I lose $32 thanks to a fvcking 74 yard kick return for a TD by Florida Int (thanks special teams!) AND not a single TD in the entire 4th quarter. It happens... but now I remember that sports betting isn't always as fun as it had been over last night and this morning.

6 - 2 to start my video season off is not bad... if I can split Colorado State/UCLA games I'll be off to a hell of a start

.

GL wrapping up the weekend fellas!

IronMan · 08-31-08, 06:13 AM

Originally posted by usckingsfan31

Parlay 10.00 64.67
Football - 147 SMU/Rice over 72 -110 for Game
Football - 148 Rice -3½ -110 for Game
Football - 185 USC -1500 for Game
Football - 202 Kansas -36 -110 for Game

it would have been nice if you had just taken usc minus the pts and left off the kan game .
adding the -1500 is really just a waste of time on any small parlay . it is always better to need 3 things to happen instead of 4 no matter how easy a game looks before it starts .
nice start to the season though nevertheless .
i would like to advise you that there will be bad beat after bad beat with ncaaf lines just like in the kan game last night .
how to get around that ? you already know , get on the best line early or late . if the line moves against what you like before you punch it in just leave it alone and maybe watch the bad beat go down without losing anything .
best of luck !

VegasDave · 08-31-08, 06:16 AM

Yeah the USC pick was just to add a few more cents...

I still believe Kansas was the right side, sucks when you lose on the right side! I've calmed down though, 6 - 2 is still fantastic and I virtually doubled my bankroll to start the season.

Clemson was NOT the right side. That was embarrassing, nice call Bama backers.

xyzky · 08-31-08, 09:09 AM

Nice way to start the season...I rooting for you, keep it up!!
Also, don't listen to any negatvity anyone is trying to give to you, I play with smaller units right now because I am building my bank roll...

Roberta · 08-31-08, 12:17 PM

Excellent Picks Dave

Originally posted by usckingsfan31

Enjoy!

Excellent Picks Dave

OrionSky · 08-31-08, 12:54 PM

Wow, great job on Sat Dave. Very informative videos on your site too. Thank you!

VegasDave · 08-31-08, 01:29 PM

Xyz, Roberta, Orion, thank you

Honestly, everyone, I'd have considered 500 views a success. The amount of support I've gotten has been insane. Thank you all so much for taking the time to watch!

Mr_Jinks · 08-31-08, 01:45 PM

New to the forum. Loved your video and your insight. Please keep the coming!

Mr_Jinks · 08-31-08, 01:55 PM

Just checked out your website too. Very well done. Nice professional look in that suit. Really liked your tag line "when 2 cents just insn't enough"

VegasDave · 08-31-08, 09:46 PM

I am so fvcking stupid.

I was so excited to rush to get my video out that I assumed the home team was home without double checking this (didn't think too)... MAJOR reasons I took Colorado State and Clemson was the home field advantage. Now I'm 6 and 3 when I could be 6 - 2 or 6 - 1 if I'd have left one or both of these games out.

I NEED that UCLA game now. I don't think I can take 6 - 4 knowing that it is entirely my fault for ignoring important information.

VegasDave · 09-01-08, 06:33 PM

C'mon Tennessee lets make this a 7 - 3 opening weekend for me!!!!