The most important part of capping football

[SBR Lou]

1)Line shopping.
2)-----
3)-----

?

[Richkas]

defense

[MonkeyF0cker]

Injuries

[jtuck]

Weather
Offensive vs. Defensive line matchups

[durito]

Compensated YDS per pass play/per rushing play

[krk1030]

Motivation

[durito]

Most overlooked: special teams

[SBR Lou]

Most overlooked: special teams

Hit the bottle early tonight?

[Sforz]

money

[durito]

Hit the bottle early tonight?

No drinking for me the rest of the year.

I'm working.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Compensated YDS per pass play/per rushing play

I would put injuries in front of compensated yards since certain position players contribute significantly to these statistics. Compensated yardage is too generalized for my liking. You cannot use the same historical compensation data and expect it to have accuracy if a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning are out of the lineups. Only if the core of each component is indeed playing can you expect accurate regression from your model. My two cents...

[AnotherLoan]

Head coach

[durito]

I would put injuries in front of compensated yards since certain position players contribute significantly to these statistics. Compensated yardage is too generalized for my liking. You cannot use the same historical compensation data and expect it to have accuracy if a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning are out of the lineups. Only if the core of each component is indeed playing can you expect accurate regression from your model. My two cents...

Certainly. Your model is only as good as the data you put into it. If it says team x should be 6pts better than team y and the line is -3 and you don't know that a player on team y who is worth 3pts is out for this game you are making a -ev play without knowing it.

So, injury info thus becomes incredibly important.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Certainly. Your model is only as good as the data you put into it. If it says team x should be 6pts better than team y and the line is -3 and you don't know that a player on team y who is worth 3pts is out for this game you are making a -ev play without knowing it.

So, injury info thus becomes incredibly important.

Yeah. Exactly.

[Broke Sport Guy]

sportscenter info

[madmaxx]

a) betting on teams who have your key fantasy players
b) betting teams who wear throwback jerseys that game
c) betting teams with black quarterbacks

[Brady2Moss]

being on the right side of the fix

[FadeThePublic]

Making sure the patriots aren't taping the opposing coaches signals

Spygate lives on!! !!! !

[SlappyWhite]

giggle of the cheer leader boobies.

[Dante799]

personel matchup

[khaliagent]

history plays a huge role
coaching

[fiveteamer]

only injuries that matter are the linemen.