Missouri only -6?? RUBBERBAND PLAY!!!

[Cuse4tw]

perfect time for you to be betting big landers....what a hamburger

[BigDofBA]

I have a feeling Illinois shows up tonight.

[southpaw74]

Illinois need to show up just to stay in single digits I think

[LT Profits]

I have a feeling Illinois shows up tonight.

Yes they will...otherwise they would have to forfeit.

[crustyme]

early x-mas gift from broke santa?

illinois, it is.

[DrSize]

These plays are gold and Landers always manages to beat the line movement

[Brock Landers]

These plays are gold and Landers always manages to beat the line movement

the overnight line when i got it was 6

[postal warrior]

We all witnessed Illinois shit on themselves vs UNLV, now Missouri is only -6!?

]

The same UNLV team that beat #1 North Carolina?

Better bet the bankroll on Missouri on that theory.

[LT]

Yes it does my friend (or at least it can). As I said let's assume that -7 is the perfect fair 50/50 line. Alright. And then let's also say there's a 4% chance each that they win by 6, 7,and 8 (SBR calculator says they're all around 4%). With those assumptions, at both -6 and +8 you have a 52% chance to win (48% plus 4% chance of winning by 7), a 44% chance to lose and a 4% chance to push. 52/96 is 54.1666%. That is very profitable at -110 (need to beat 52.381%).

Again, if we assume -7 is a PERFECT breakeven line, then either (or both) -6 and +8 are profitable plays.

These outcomes aren't nearly as predictable as you're making it seem. A 1 pt swing (dropping from -7 to -6 or rising from -7 to -8) doesn't turn a non-play into a good bet.

[d2bets]

These outcomes aren't nearly as predictable as you're making it seem. A 1 pt swing (dropping from -7 to -6 or rising from -7 to -8) doesn't turn a non-play into a good bet.

I supplied you with mathematical proof and your response lacked any. Granted, -7 being perfect is somewhat hypothetical, but the fact is that a correct line of -7 even both ways makes -6 and/or+8 +EV plays. That's the math. I would love to bet both -6-110 and +8-110 in this situation every time and I make a lot of money.

[FourLengthsClear]

These outcomes aren't nearly as predictable as you're making it seem. A 1 pt swing (dropping from -7 to -6 or rising from -7 to -8) doesn't turn a non-play into a good bet.

If you give me one point better then every closing line on the board at -110 for a year you would be broke.
You would be giving me an edge of 1.4% (3.8% for the one point minus your 2.4% juice).

[mncosoldier]

Well brock how much should we play on this play I mean honest. My loot is in your hands on this play let me know how much i should throw on it.

[Brock Landers]

Well brock how much should we play on this play I mean honest. My loot is in your hands on this play let me know how much i should throw on it.

couple hundred for sure

[Herky]

I supplied you with mathematical proof and your response lacked any. Granted, -7 being perfect is somewhat hypothetical, but the fact is that a correct line of -7 even both ways makes -6 and/or+8 +EV plays. That's the math. I would love to bet both -6-110 and +8-110 in this situation every time and I make a lot of money.

You wouldn't be profitable in the long term - I don't care what your math says.

[mncosoldier]

couple hundred for sure

Thanks bro

[d2bets]

You wouldn't be profitable in the long term - I don't care what your math says.

Let me get this straight. You think if every time the closer was 7 in CBB, if I bet -6-110 and +8-110...you think I wouldn't be profitable? It's not even an opinion, really, of course it would be profitable, and massively so.

[LT Profits]

You wouldn't be profitable in the long term - I don't care what your math says.

If you consistently beat the closing line of an efficient market by a full point, you could start shopping for a yacht. That is not even debatable.

[flyingillini]

Illini win this game.

[Brock Landers]

Illini win this game.

have you watched them play? LOL

[MARVEL]

Mizzou is a beast of a team. They are probably the best team in the Big XII this year. Frontline and backcourt has some serious talent and athleticism. Have been watching them all season, their coach pushes these guys hard. Defensively they are extremely good.

[romoney]

bump

[BIGDAY]

Game is getting too close for my comfort Mr Landers...

[Cuse4tw]

your a freaking mush landers.....looks like santas skipping over your sad home

[starfire]

Go Illini

[Avenger]

[BettingWizard]

typical overreaction play by brock

never fails

[Jonah]

Which sportsbook sponsored this rubberband?

[efalk1322]

mizzou is bout to shit the bed. fml

[ZigZags]

There goes Missouri covering.

[lemart5]

Brock ran out of rubber bands and money a long time ago

[CollegeOverUnder]

Go Illinois go! GO

[starfire]

Illini up

[BIGDAY]

Takes serious talent Brock.

[MARVEL]

Didn't think Illini had that kind of run in them. Luckily, I was all over the 10 minute and 1H line.

[paco]