Basketball Teases vs Football Teases

[Baseball Ted]

Not sure which forum to post this in so will post here.....

No one has ever had a good explanation or even a solid rationale for me on this topic...ever

Why is a Football Tease 6 points and a Basketball Tease only 4 points??

Football's a game where typically anywhere from 40-55 points will be scored total in the game, with points much more at a premium than basketball, which can range from 150 points for college to 200+ in the NBA.

Always seemed to me that Basketball Teases should be the 6 pointers, and Football only at 4

Does anyone know why this is?

[kgindy]

Points in football range from 6, 3, 2, 1. Basketball 3, 2, 1. So why give 6 points when avg basket is 2 points.

[Baseball Ted]

I understand the logic but you are saying that a 6 point lead in football is equivalent to a 2 point lead in Basketball?

[Sniperpicks]

simple answer ................. its what the books came up with years ago to offer something that looks like a LOCK WINNER but is really hedged in their favor, they got #'s guys who would make our heads spin

[Thunder Gulch]

They are both total sucker plays so the answer is don't rack your brain figuring out the odds.

[Hmelly]

Ive been posing that same question for years and that is why in 10yrs I have never done a basketball teaser. I must admit I sometimes like to try my luck at football teasers for very little money knowing that they are complete suckers bets. I end up mad half the time I hit a teaser because when they hit you could usually have won with a parlay anyway (and you should never feel disappointed after winning haha).

[big0mar]

[Jeff from Indy]

Football games score in big chunks and have a higher std dev of results from expected results (the line)

Basketball games score in smaller chunks and have a tendency to converge to the line (smaller std dev)

Here's a thought experiment to understand this:

Many NFL games end up with one team doubling the score on another or more, like JX 41-14 over TB yesterday

Not many (none) NBA games are 90-44

Hopefully that helps some - GL - Jeff from Indy

[BettingWizard]

you just explained why basketball teasers are worthless

[HoulihansTX]

Never tease basketball, especially college hoops.

[dfberger23]

Basketball teasers are massive sucker bets.

[iifold]

I've always wondered how much value teasers lose in games with higher totals...(hoop and football)

Seems like teasing a football game with a total of 35 would make a ton more sense than teasing a game with a total in the 70's...

Same with hoop, teasing a Wisconsin college hoop game seems to make more sense than teasing a Warriors/Wizards game...

Yet they are the same

[FourLengthsClear]

They are calculated based on "push probabilities".

If we compare NFL to NBA using a base of -10.5, the following are (approximate) likelihoods:

NBA
Team wins by 10 - 4.9%
Team wins by 9 - 4.7%
Team wins by 8 - 4.5%
Team wins by 7 - 4.4%

Total in the range teased 18.5%

NFL
Team wins by 10 - 5.3%
Team wins by 9 - 1.2%
Team wins by 8 - 2.0%
Team wins by 7 - 6.3%
Team wins by 6 - 3.5%
Team wins by 5 - 1.8%

Total within the range teased is 20.1%

As you can see the NFL teaser is a better deal for the player, but likewise the book increased the point value to 5 (nevermind 6) it would be giving the player an edge. The 'breakeven' point for the player in terms of calculating the "range teased" is 20.6% if on a 2-teamer paying +100.

[FourLengthsClear]

I've always wondered how much value teasers lose in games with higher totals...(hoop and football)

Seems like teasing a football game with a total of 35 would make a ton more sense than teasing a game with a total in the 70's...

Same with hoop, teasing a Wisconsin college hoop game seems to make more sense than teasing a Warriors/Wizards game...

Yet they are the same

If you are talking about teasing the total then you are, of course, right.

In broad terms you give the book around 0.6% for every 7 points the total goes up.
I don't know the equivalent in basketball because buying points is nearly always a better proposition than teaser.