If there was ever a week to fade the Packers, this is it...

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  • Chance2087
    SBR High Roller
    • 03-15-11
    • 216

    #36
    I've got em in a teaser so Im hoping they just win by 8 or more However I did notice that they really havent ever blown anyone out on the road. I got them winning by 10-13. Like another poster said, if you wanna go straight up against the spread, id look elsewhere, couple games out there with not as sharp a line as this one.
    Comment
    • DavieVegas
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-02-11
      • 838

      #37
      I'm a huge chiefs fan and I would not take the chiefs at all even to cover here..they might score 10 and that's high no matter who's qb
      Comment
      • JMon
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 12-11-09
        • 9800

        #38
        A smart NFL capper would either take the dog or stay away in this match up. Since 1989, DD road favs are 52-70-4 ATS (57.3% fade). With a 52.38% breakeven (-110), taking DD Home dogs is a long term profitable situation.

        Since Dec. 06, 2009, DD road favs are 1-12 ATS.

        This year they are 0-5 ATS

        *GB -10 @ CAR (30-23)
        *PITT -10.5 @ IND (23-20)
        *GB -10 @ MIN (33-27)
        *NO -13.5 @ STL (21-31)
        *PITT -10.5 @ KC (13-9)

        In the Month of December, DD road favs are 11-27-1 ATS (71% fade) since 1989 and 0-10 ATS since 2007.

        Teams with 12 or more wins playing as DD road favs are 1-10-1 ATS since 1990.
        Comment
        • warriorfan707
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-29-08
          • 13698

          #39
          Originally posted by JMon
          A smart NFL capper would either take the dog or stay away in this match up. Since 1989, DD road favs are 52-70-4 ATS (57.3% fade). With a 52.38% breakeven (-110), taking DD Home dogs is a long term profitable situation.

          Since Dec. 06, 2009, DD road favs are 1-12 ATS.

          This year they are 0-5 ATS

          *GB -10 @ CAR (30-23)
          *PITT -10.5 @ IND (23-20)
          *GB -10 @ MIN (33-27)
          *NO -13.5 @ STL (21-31)
          *PITT -10.5 @ KC (13-9)

          In the Month of December, DD road favs are 11-27-1 ATS (71% fade) since 1989 and 0-10 ATS since 2007.

          Teams with 12 or more wins playing as DD road favs are 1-10-1 ATS since 1990.
          Please

          How many of those teams were QB'ed by Aaron Rodgers
          Comment
          • JMon
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 12-11-09
            • 9800

            #40
            Originally posted by warriorfan707
            Please

            How many of those teams were QB'ed by Aaron Rodgers
            Two games this year by Aaron Rodgers. And if you are referencing a "solid QB" does not lose as DD favs on the road you are wrong. Many of those 12+ wins teams that are 1-10-1 ATS since 1990, that had a "solid QB" on their team, didn't cover. I can list them for you if you want.

            I was suggesting one should EITHER take the dog OR stay away from the game as it is a profitable long term play to play on DD home dogs. Obviously 'other factors' need to be considered before jumping the Chiefs or fading GB. Do you think before you type?
            Comment
            • Umad Brasiek
              SBR High Roller
              • 01-29-11
              • 130

              #41
              Originally posted by JMon
              Two games this year by Aaron Rodgers. And if you are referencing a "solid QB" does not lose as DD favs on the road you are wrong. Many of those 12+ wins teams that are 1-10-1 ATS since 1990, that had a "solid QB" on their team, didn't cover. I can list them for you if you want. I was suggesting one should EITHER take the dog OR stay away from the game as it is a profitable long term play to play on DD home dogs. Obviously 'other factors' need to be considered before jumping the Chiefs or fading GB. Do you think before you type?
              Were the Pack not double digit favourites against the Raiders?

              How'd that go?
              Comment
              • JMon
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-11-09
                • 9800

                #42
                Originally posted by Umad Brasiek
                Were the Pack not double digit favourites against the Raiders?

                How'd that go?

                I am referring to DD ROAD favs!!!!!! GB was a DD HOME fav vs. Oakland. God bless.
                Comment
                • k13
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 07-16-10
                  • 18104

                  #43
                  Originally posted by Umad Brasiek
                  Were the Pack not double digit favourites against the Raiders?

                  How'd that go?


                  He's talking about on the road.

                  Were the Packers not double digit favorites against Tampa Bay?

                  How'd that go?
                  Comment
                  • killersweet
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-02-08
                    • 1483

                    #44
                    KC may cover. But I am not going against what is working for me. I have been on Packers for weeks now and I am not giving up on that. They have been solid on ATS and why go against the trend?
                    Comment
                    • iifold
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 04-25-10
                      • 11111

                      #45
                      Any word on Orton??

                      You guys missed the point of the thread I see...

                      Fading Packers a bad idea most of the time...

                      If Orton starts, this is the rare time I think there is value in doing so...

                      How many times have the Packers covered 2 TD's this year??
                      Comment
                      • iifold
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 04-25-10
                        • 11111

                        #46
                        "Coach Romeo Crennel says that Orton (finger) will be the Chiefs' starting QB Sunday against Green Bay if he is healthy enough, Kent Babb of The Kansas City Star reports."
                        Comment
                        • stevenash
                          Moderator
                          • 01-17-11
                          • 65625

                          #47
                          ^
                          Orton is starting from the accounts I just read
                          Comment
                          • iifold
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 04-25-10
                            • 11111

                            #48
                            Originally posted by stevenash
                            ^
                            Orton is starting from the accounts I just read
                            In at +14...

                            Think it goes back down a little...
                            Comment
                            • freakydave
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-23-11
                              • 1106

                              #49
                              Originally posted by iifold
                              Any word on Orton?? You guys missed the point of the thread I see... Fading Packers a bad idea most of the time... If Orton starts, this is the rare time I think there is value in doing so... How many times have the Packers covered 2 TD's this year??
                              They covered 2 td's the last time they faced Orton this year & they picked him off 3 times.
                              Comment
                              • Ibanezalk3
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 10-28-11
                                • 22

                                #50
                                Did everyone see Ryan Grant come to life last week??? Even if GB isn't throwing all over KC, they'll be running all over them.. as any team that plays GB always has to respect the pass, leaving some lanes open for a halfway decent back..
                                Comment
                                • JMon
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 12-11-09
                                  • 9800

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by freakydave
                                  They covered 2 td's the last time they faced Orton this year & they picked him off 3 times.

                                  What the hell does that have to do with anything? This is the NFL. This is a totally different situation. It amazes me those with the inability so see things out side the box. Close-minded individuals will have no chance in succeeding capping sports. It's called critical thinking...look it up.
                                  Comment
                                  • iifold
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 04-25-10
                                    • 11111

                                    #52
                                    Comment
                                    • SportsPedagogy
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-13-11
                                      • 3691

                                      #53
                                      I dont really like you ....
                                      but this was a good call. Credit where Credit is due
                                      Comment
                                      • Serbone
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-21-09
                                        • 1300

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by iifold
                                        assuming palko doesn't start...

                                        Jennings out...

                                        Chiefs have frustrated some good teams on defense this year for stretches (steelers and pats)

                                        might rain and be windy...

                                        Packers now know staying healthy much more important than winning by 30+...

                                        Chiefs playing for new coach (crennel)

                                        something to keep an eye on...

                                        Chiefs +13.5 right now...
                                        great call!!!!!!!!!!
                                        Comment
                                        • spurginobili
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-09-09
                                          • 3065

                                          #55
                                          Nice call
                                          Comment
                                          • opie1988
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 09-12-10
                                            • 23429

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by warriorfan707
                                            Please
                                            How many of those teams were QB'ed by Aaron Rodgers
                                            Uhhhh......one now.

                                            Foldi is a sharp son-of-a-bitch.
                                            Comment
                                            • BettingWizard
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 11-28-09
                                              • 6522

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by Brock Landers
                                              KC Sux
                                              brock and 90% of the thread against you

                                              easy money
                                              Comment
                                              • TexansFan
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-06-06
                                                • 3365

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by Emily_Haines
                                                The Packers right now are the best team in NFL history period. Even Bill Cowher said so and I'll go out on a limb and say he knows a little more about football than you.
                                                I know they lost and all, but I just saw this. Even if they had won today they are not the best NFL team of all time with that defense they have.
                                                Comment
                                                • JMon
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 12-11-09
                                                  • 9800

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by JMon
                                                  A smart NFL capper would either take the dog or stay away in this match up. Since 1989, DD road favs are 52-70-4 ATS (57.3% fade). With a 52.38% breakeven (-110), taking DD Home dogs is a long term profitable situation.

                                                  Since Dec. 06, 2009, DD road favs are 1-12 ATS.

                                                  This year they are 0-5 ATS

                                                  *GB -10 @ CAR (30-23)
                                                  *PITT -10.5 @ IND (23-20)
                                                  *GB -10 @ MIN (33-27)
                                                  *NO -13.5 @ STL (21-31)
                                                  *PITT -10.5 @ KC (13-9)

                                                  In the Month of December, DD road favs are 11-27-1 ATS (71% fade) since 1989 and 0-10 ATS since 2007.

                                                  Teams with 12 or more wins playing as DD road favs are 1-10-1 ATS since 1990.

                                                  OK...put this in your back pocket for future reference.! Now 0-6 this year and yes Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 this year in this situation!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Djstucky
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-27-11
                                                    • 2993

                                                    #60
                                                    Nice call here King...this looked like the 13-0 chiefs against the 5-8 packers...not the other way around...orton was locked in today...this game wasn't near as close as the final score...if the chiefs could have taken advantage of down and goal they win by 20 or more...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • k13
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 07-16-10
                                                      • 18104

                                                      #61
                                                      Good Job. Orton really made the difference.

                                                      KC vs Denver shaping up to be a classic.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • freakydave
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-23-11
                                                        • 1106

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by JMon
                                                        What the hell does that have to do with anything? This is the NFL. This is a totally different situation. It amazes me those with the inability so see things out side the box. Close-minded individuals will have no chance in succeeding capping sports. It's called critical thinking...look it up.
                                                        Wow- nice response - getting your jollies or what? Critical thinking sure!!!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JMon
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-11-09
                                                          • 9800

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by freakydave
                                                          Wow- nice response - getting your jollies or what? Critical thinking sure!!!

                                                          Please don't make me explain your idiotic comment about Orton's performance as a Bronco against GB vs. him as a Chief against GB.

                                                          Just think my friend...you will be a much better gambler.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • freakydave
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-23-11
                                                            • 1106

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by JMon
                                                            Please don't make me explain your idiotic comment about Orton's performance as a Bronco against GB vs. him as a Chief against GB. Just think my friend...you will be a much better gambler.
                                                            First I am a Packers fan but for you to infer from my previous post that I was on the Packers or that 1 statement of facts can indicate a persons' ability or inability to handicap says alot about how much of a critical thinker you really are.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JMon
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-11-09
                                                              • 9800

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by freakydave
                                                              They covered 2 td's the last time they faced Orton this year & they picked him off 3 times.

                                                              The above "inference" to prelude Orton as a 'Chief' is going to do the same when he was a Bronco is absurd.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • lakerboy
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 04-02-09
                                                                • 94379

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by thejrichshow85
                                                                bet the packers or stay away.

                                                                i don't see how the cheifs will even get in the redzone this game, they are awful!

                                                                packers roll 45-3 maybe 45-10

                                                                you always predict blowouts that never happen.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • lakerboy
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 04-02-09
                                                                  • 94379

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by freakydave
                                                                  Wow- nice response - getting your jollies or what? Critical thinking sure!!!




                                                                  So we cant laugh at your team when they lose? Its okay the Bears lost to the chiefs as well.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • PAULYPOKER
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 12-06-08
                                                                    • 36581

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Call of the NFL year...........


                                                                    No one can top this one...............
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • onlooker
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 08-10-05
                                                                      • 36572

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Pabinator
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 10-04-09
                                                                        • 1238

                                                                        #70
                                                                        The guy has been saying the Packers are going to lose every week, dont suck him off just yet. Tebow is going to win the super bowl anyway
                                                                        Shut your mouth when you talk to Me!
                                                                        Comment
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