The problem with Bet Shooters value picks!

[Steeltown]

Its become obvious that Bet Shooter is more concerned with value and overnight lines than actually finding the teams that will win. Although its nice to save a few dollars here and there, its a terrible thing to stay away from winners because you are too concerned with value. The idea is to pick winners. Pick a winner and you win money right? If you are betting favs, risk the same amount and win a little less. But dont lose out on the free money because you dont like the price. I dont care how good your money management skills are, if you dont know shit about sports and cant find winners, you are in the wrong business. I find it helpful to go thru the games and pick the winners without even looking at the price. Dont go away from these winners just because the price is high. And oh yea, I can promise you that a guy doesnt go 33 and 9 by luck!

[element1286]

Its become obvious that Bet Shooter is more concerned with value and overnight lines than actually finding the teams that will win. Although its nice to save a few dollars here and there, its a terrible thing to stay away from winners because you are too concerned with value. The idea is to pick winners. Pick a winner and you win money right? If you are betting favs, risk the same amount and win a little less. But dont lose out on the free money because you dont like the price. I dont care how good your money management skills are, if you dont know shit about sports and cant find winners, you are in the wrong business. I find it helpful to go thru the games and pick the winners without even looking at the price. Dont go away from these winners just because the price is high.

Not really, the only thing value means is that you think a certain team has a higher chance of winning than the line would indicate.

[freeVICK]

bet shooter is solid bro. hes as sharp as they get

[SBR Lou]

Better chance to win longterm by picking the off market #'s or getting good at predicting which way something will move and having the best of it than simply picking winners based on "TV" or "gut feel".

[LT Profits]

I disagree totally, betting VALUE is the ONLY way to win in the long run. This is not to say to blindly bet every dog, but a good capper has to be able to reasonably approximate a team's chances of winning, and bet it if the odds yield +EV in the long run.

Keep in mind that favorites have won at at unbelievably high rate since the All-Star break, so that may be brainwashing bettors into thinking that all you have to do is bet big favorites and you will win long term. Nothing could be further from the truth.

[LT Profits]

I should also add that there are occasions where favorites have a +EV long term, so you cannot ignore chalk totally.

[topgame85]

LT said it Value is the only path to longevity betting sides

[Shark79]

This thread should be deleted.

Steeltown ... why dont u start posting some picks before you trash a fellow member.

Shooter is a good poster and his picks are very solid ... if you dislike them ... dont open up his threads ... and u'll save time opening meaningless threads

[Steeltown]

How about just watching all the games and following sports religiously(knowing who the backup QB's are for Pre season) and therefore using all the factors you gain from this and in turn picking the team you think will win.? Trust me this works!

[SBR Lou]

How about just watching all the games and following sports religiously

Overrated. Watching games mostly just gets you emotionally entwined in something that should be strictly mathematical. I'm not saying every winning gambler needs to be Ganchrow, but one needs to have a grip on various things outside of the handle he feels he has from watching Sportscenter and TIVO'ing the weekly games.

Study the market like you would each team and the results will come.

[element1286]

How about just watching all the games and following sports religiously(knowing who the backup QB's are for Pre season) and therefore using all the factors you gain from this and in turn picking the team you think will win.? Trust me this works!

Everyone does that. In the long run if you keep on getting the best line you will be a winner, and if you keep on getting the worst line, you will be a loser, it is as simple as that.

[Steeltown]

This thread should be deleted.

Steeltown ... why dont u start posting some picks before you trash a fellow member.

Shooter is a good poster and his picks are very solid ... if you dislike them ... dont open up his threads ... and u'll save time opening meaningless threads

actually he targeted me to start with. Know your shit before you open your trap. He didnt even know me and he was telling me how to bet and ganging up on me. I never said he wasnt a solid poster. His picks are shwag! Now hes telling a guy whos 35 and 10 that its all luck. Its just a matter of time. I dont go on feel or by what the TV tells me. As far as picking winners, what does the contest tell you? If you want my picks just look at em. I gave you the Texans Saints over. What else do you want? I also gave you the Eagles. Granted that was a lucky result. Just dont tell me how to bet and Ill leave it alone.