Determining your Edge

[Professor1215]

How do you determine your edge on a wager?

[gauchojake]

[Ra77er]

LOL this thread in players talk? Good luck getting an answer pal

[TR88]

[gauchojake]

What kind of professor asks this question? Jesus no wonder our educational system is shit.

[allin1]

worth watching

[Professor1215]

lol obviously I need someone to tell me what the "rules" are on this site.

[mh217]

experience will tell you that..its not an exact formula but rather an intrinsic value that you know after time...after a million bets i can honestly say i have a pretty fair idea of my percentages to hit a bet..i know if a bet im taking is 70%..or 90% or even 30%..or even 43.8%...straight math can only get you so far..its all about feel and experience...plus you have to be educated, intelligent, and nimble as fukk to adjust on the fly...there are people that will never have an edge and keep repeating the same errors.

[rfr3sh]

the number I am betting vs pinny

[FourLengthsClear]

It depends on how you are arriving at your picks/selections.

If you are handicapping/modeling, you should be arriving at a probability of winning/covering. Your edge is then calculated the same way as you were advised here http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ed-return.html

If you believe in efficient markets and use Pinnacle (or a basket of books) to determine the fair line. Convert that to an implied probability and you can use the same calculation.

Some people will use a historical (normalised) win/loss record but that, of course needs a 'bank' of 1000s of plays to iron out variance.

[Wrecktangle]

lol obviously I need someone to tell me what the "rules" are on this site.

Prof, you're asking the open-ended "holy grail" question we are all chasing in these forums.

...it's almost like asking "Who is God?" in a Catholic forum.

...BTW, careful of those guys in robes when they say, "son, while we're answering your question, let me show you what's behind the alter."

Here at SBR, that guy is named JJgold.