Dallas Stars ML -139 Tonight

[Rod1010]

I love this pick. Fading the Panthers here

Great value getting them at -139

[Goat Milk]

how about the red wings?

[Sawyer]

GL Rod!

[dfberger23]

I got -130, thanks Rod.

[opie1988]

Very sharp play here, Rod.

Glad to see you've gotten on board with us.

[firedawg]

im on it...... gl rod

[dmiles1021]

what about dal regulation? +125

[dontbuythehook]

line seems a bit too low, goin with fla

[hels]

Was Rod the sbr member to suggest fading Dallas for 5 games (this was around the end of October). I remember that they won the first game of the 5 game fade. They've still been winning too. Just curious as to whose advice it was to fade them.

[hels]

line seems a bit too low, goin with fla

This thinking can't be used in the early stages of the NHL season. Lines often seem off.

[dontbuythehook]

This thinking can't be used in the early stages of the NHL season. Lines often seem off.

Okay fair enough. Fla is roughly 6-3 on the road and losing 2-5 at home? Dallas got crushed vs pitt and detroit, and now theyre facing a hot road team who has shown theyre currently motivated to win. Line dropped from +120 to +110. Dallas is inconsistent as well, and you can agree with that with the notion on this message board that they are over-achieving as well. Combine all of this with my gut feeling and I think FLA takes this easily. Public is 76% on the Dallas ML as well according to sportsinsights despite significant RLM from +120 to +110

[deadstare]

just hit dallas hard. -130

panthers have a goalie making his season debut tonight.

[Sawyer]

Line movement means nothing in hockey..

It makes sense to fade panthers in this spot. Panthers' 6-3 road record is too good to be true. These numbers should change somehow.

[hels]

Okay fair enough. Fla is roughly 6-3 on the road and losing 2-5 at home? Dallas got crushed vs pitt and detroit, and now theyre facing a hot road team who has shown theyre currently motivated to win. Line dropped from +120 to +110. Dallas is inconsistent as well, and you can agree with that with the notion on this message board that they are over-achieving as well. Combine all of this with my gut feeling and I think FLA takes this easily. Public is 76% on the Dallas ML as well according to sportsinsights despite significant RLM from +120 to +110

I will assume your data is correct as I don't have SI. My point was that you see RLM and lines that seem wrong all the time in the first quarter of the NHL season. At times you look at all the data and you're like, "this makes no fukken sense, team X must be the play." Then they get beat 4-1 or something and you're left even more confused.

I'm not saying you are right or wrong with your pick. I am only suggesting that right now the NHL is too unpredictable to rely on stats so early in the season. Do you really think Florida is going to go 11-30 at home this year and 28-13 on the road? Numbers will even out in the long run. Also, who have they played on the road and at home? I could use the argument that they have to cool off on the road.....

I wish you well with your play, just trying to add another viewpoint.

[hels]

Line movement means nothing in hockey..

It makes sense to fade panthers in this spot. Panthers' 6-3 road record is too good to be true. These numbers should change somehow.

Ha, I posted at the exact same time and we both said the same thing.

[Cicima6709]

Line movement means nothing in hockey..

It makes sense to fade panthers in this spot. Panthers' 6-3 road record is too good to be true. These numbers should change somehow.

Very, very much disagree with the first one. Line movement means a lot in hockey, its a sport with very soft lines and a smaller market then other "big" sports...a lot can be learned from line movement, whether its a system based on just line movement, or using line movement to help decide whether or not a lean should be a play.

Agreed with the second part. Dal looks good today at -130...i was expecting closer to -150.

[dmiles1021]

yay or nay on dallas regulation -0.5??? +125

[dontbuythehook]

I'm not saying you are right or wrong with your pick. I am only suggesting that right now the NHL is too unpredictable to rely on stats so early in the season. Do you really think Florida is going to go 11-30 at home this year and 28-13 on the road? Numbers will even out in the long run. Also, who have they played on the road and at home? I could use the argument that they have to cool off on the road.....

I wish you well with your play, just trying to add another viewpoint.

FLA has beaten Buffalo, TB and Montreal on the road, all tough games considering those teams are especially good at their home turf. I didn't bring up the other wins b/c that would just make my argument look bad. Yes, numbers will even out in the long run, so you using the argument that "Wow X must be the play b/c lines are off, then you lose 1-4 and are confused" is just as invalid as my road vs home record for FLA. What is worth discussion here is the players' current state of mind: They are crushing on the road and not doing good at home, so they enter road games with a higher sense of confidence and should at least try to push their positive road record more since it's nothing new to them. If you are looking for Dallas to win you should have tried 1-2 weeks ago before they cooled off twice in 2 brutal losses vs good teams. Right now is not the time to take a team like Dallas laying that juice considering the 'cooling-off' argument.

[opie1988]

FLA has beaten Buffalo, TB and Montreal on the road, all tough games considering those teams are especially good at their home turf. I didn't bring up the other wins b/c that would just make my argument look bad. Yes, numbers will even out in the long run, so you using the argument that "Wow X must be the play b/c lines are off, then you
lose 1-4 and are confused" is just as invalid as my road vs home record for FLA. What is worth discussion here is
the players' current state of mind: They are crushing on the road and not doing good at home, so they enter road games with a higher sense of confidence and should at least try to
push their positive road record more since it's nothing new to them. If you are looking for Dallas to win you should have tried 1-2 weeks ago before they
cooled off twice in 2 brutal losses vs good teams. Right now is not the time to take a team like Dallas laying that juice considering the 'cooling-off' argument.

They lost to Pittsburgh & Detroit on a back-to-back road trip. They were actually tied entering the 3rd period against both teams. They also beat a previously unbeaten at home Washington team 2 nights before this. Thumped their skull 5-2 in their building. Took 4 pointsout of a possible 8 on probably the most difficult road trip in the NHL. I hardly consider that "cooling off".


Lehtonen is 11-1 so far this year, and is in the net tonite.

Fade this pick....and you lose.

[dontbuythehook]

Opie, do you realize you only chime in on picks when they are from Texas? :/

[opie1988]

Opie, do you realize you only chime in on picks when they are from Texas? :/

Uhhhh.....yes.

Oh well.....GO STARS!!

[hels]

FLA has beaten Buffalo, TB and Montreal on the road, all tough games considering those teams are especially good at their home turf. I didn't bring up the other wins b/c that would just make my argument look bad. Yes, numbers will even out in the long run, so you using the argument that "Wow X must be the play b/c lines are off, then you lose 1-4 and are confused" is just as invalid as my road vs home record for FLA. What is worth discussion here is the players' current state of mind: They are crushing on the road and not doing good at home, so they enter road games with a higher sense of confidence and should at least try to push their positive road record more since it's nothing new to them. If you are looking for Dallas to win you should have tried 1-2 weeks ago before they cooled off twice in 2 brutal losses vs good teams. Right now is not the time to take a team like Dallas laying that juice considering the 'cooling-off' argument.

You were the one to first make a comment about 'the line being off' -- those were your words. I countered and said that it lines often seem off early in the NHL season and gave the team X scenario.

So you're saying you know the mindset of the Panthers? Inside info you haven't informed us? What if there is tension in the locker room because of this or that? We're people who don't know this so do not claim you know the state of mind of teams. And 6-3 is 'crushing' on the road? I guess when a team begins the season with a win they know it is impossible for them to lose a game.

As I said previously, I do not have a play on this game. I just hope Dallas wins.

[ebbearsfb1]

its pretty simple if you dont like dallas play florida or pass on the game

[DHK]

Hard to call, panthers underrated

[Sawyer]

Don't let the line movement effect you, never. If you're confident with your pick, a line change should not effect your decision. If reason of line movement is not something related with game (Players' Status etc), it should not be a factor. People usually think if odds drop, that team is likely to win. It's wrong. I'm not a big fan of RLM.

I cant say hmmm theres rlm on this game, sharps are picking team A, i better pick team a too. no, never. if i like team-b, i bet team b. i dont care about rlm and other line movements..

[ebbearsfb1]

Spot on sawyer

[dmiles1021]

i think youre on the wrong side Rod i had to go with the panthers + money

[ebbearsfb1]

Shoot within seconds islanders and panthers score... come on.. I need wins

[Cicima6709]

Don't let the line movement effect you, never. If you're confident with your pick, a line change should not effect your decision. If reason of line movement is not something related with game (Players' Status etc), it should not be a factor. People usually think if odds drop, that team is likely to win. It's wrong. I'm not a big fan of RLM.

I cant say hmmm theres rlm on this game, sharps are picking team A, i better pick team a too. no, never. if i like team-b, i bet team b. i dont care about rlm and other line movements..

Thats fair...i dont believe in RLM much either.

However i have run systems based entirely on line movement with pretty good success. I feel like if you know what you are doing and looking for specific things, line movement helps a lot. Its not for everyone. But sometimes you can tell which teams the sharps are on, as long as which team vegas is kind of "betting" on. And i will tell you from years of running the system...Vegas is right more so then they are wrong.

[GChild]

Trap

[opie1988]

Stars down 2-0 after 1.

Look like SH*T. 1st game after road trip looking like a bad spot for them.

Fukk me.....

[DennisGreen]

Don't let the line movement effect you, never. If you're confident with your pick, a line change should not effect your decision. If reason of line movement is not something related with game (Players' Status etc), it should not be a factor. People usually think if odds drop, that team is likely to win. It's wrong. I'm not a big fan of RLM.

I cant say hmmm theres rlm on this game, sharps are picking team A, i better pick team a too. no, never. if i like team-b, i bet team b. i dont care about rlm and other line movements..

X 2

[ebbearsfb1]

Opie, your dallas stars are putting my pants around my ankles right now... wake em up

[Sawyer]

Take it eazy guys. Dallas will tie the game 2-2 and this game will go OT.

[rnunez91]

guess we all lost on dallas tonight.. playing like cbj. Pathetic performance from dallas 2nite. 0-4 with powerplays.. pathetic pathetic pathetic..