Sochi Grand Prix
Grischuk -210
Grischuk has never lost to Svidler with white, in a regular game. Grischuk is 2nd in the tournament while Svidler has been a bit shaky. He lost a game with black but won last round with white. Hopefully Svidler isn't starting on a roll here.
Gelfand-Kamsky Draw -172
Gelfand is a draw machine. Period.
Navara-Jakovenko Draw -159
Jakovenko has drawn all 4 of his games. Navara, though last in the tournament, has drawn both his games with white. He's lost a couple, but in my humble opinion hasn't been playing that bad.
Radjabov-Cheparinov Draw -151
Radjabov is 2/4 so far. Cheparinov is leading the tournament with 3/4. I don't expect Radjabov to push too hard, and the games they've played in the past have been relatively tame.
Cheparinov to win +246
The last decisive game between these two was actually a win w/ black for Cheparinov. Maybe he has Radjabov's number. +246 is a decent price for taking the tournament leader.
Modiahki to win +950
Modiahki has black against Ivanchuk. This guy is a big underdog obviously, but has played very well so far, scoring 50%. Ivanchuk is inconsistent at times.
Ivanchuk-Modiahki Draw +192
Gotta take this at that price. Modiahki has lost and drawn with black so far. And has won and drawn with white. This guy has shown he can play with the 'big boys'.
Overall, betting a lot of 'draws'. So far 19/28 games have been drawn = 70%. Since most of the prices for 'draws' are -150 to -175, one could probably bet these blind and expect to come out ahead, but I cherry picked a bit. Hopefully not to my regret.
Grischuk -210
Grischuk has never lost to Svidler with white, in a regular game. Grischuk is 2nd in the tournament while Svidler has been a bit shaky. He lost a game with black but won last round with white. Hopefully Svidler isn't starting on a roll here.
Gelfand-Kamsky Draw -172
Gelfand is a draw machine. Period.
Navara-Jakovenko Draw -159
Jakovenko has drawn all 4 of his games. Navara, though last in the tournament, has drawn both his games with white. He's lost a couple, but in my humble opinion hasn't been playing that bad.
Radjabov-Cheparinov Draw -151
Radjabov is 2/4 so far. Cheparinov is leading the tournament with 3/4. I don't expect Radjabov to push too hard, and the games they've played in the past have been relatively tame.
Cheparinov to win +246
The last decisive game between these two was actually a win w/ black for Cheparinov. Maybe he has Radjabov's number. +246 is a decent price for taking the tournament leader.
Modiahki to win +950
Modiahki has black against Ivanchuk. This guy is a big underdog obviously, but has played very well so far, scoring 50%. Ivanchuk is inconsistent at times.
Ivanchuk-Modiahki Draw +192
Gotta take this at that price. Modiahki has lost and drawn with black so far. And has won and drawn with white. This guy has shown he can play with the 'big boys'.
Overall, betting a lot of 'draws'. So far 19/28 games have been drawn = 70%. Since most of the prices for 'draws' are -150 to -175, one could probably bet these blind and expect to come out ahead, but I cherry picked a bit. Hopefully not to my regret.
