SBR_John special: SUPER TEASER in SBR Sportsbook

[SBR_John]

wow SBR bravo what an amazing week to have this teaser buser weekend.Congrads on what must be 100,000' points back in hand! bravo!

Uh not so fast. The players broke even yesterday but were behind overall thanks to a single game; Virgina beating Miami. There are some busters working early on today but still too early to say the book will win with this promo.

[yisman]

I predict that the SBR Book will make a profit off of this.

[AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN]

<table class="WagerTable" border="0" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="6">WagerType:13pt 3 teams, SBR John special</td></tr><tr><td>Date:</td><td align="left">Team:</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 30</td><td align="left">NFL [216] BALTIMORE +½-110 (B+13) </td></tr><tr><td>Oct 30</td><td align="left">NFL [224] PITTSBURGH +16-130 (B+13) </td></tr><tr><td>Oct 30</td><td align="left">NFL [229] DALLAS +16+110 (B+13) </td></tr><tr><td colspan="3">Risking 1000.00 SBR To Win 500.00 SBR</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3">Ticket#: 1044557

thx john and sbr
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Baltimore will fukk this

[Hoja Verdes]

Saints losing outright (down 17-0 as I type this) will singehandedly make this promo a huge success for the SBR book. Unbelievable really...the weekend this promo is available turns out to be the biggest public bloodbath of the year.

[shari91]

Saints losing outright (down 17-0 as I type this) will singehandedly make this promo a huge success for the SBR book. Unbelievable really...the weekend this promo is available turns out to be the biggest public bloodbath of the year.

I don't find it unbelievable. I'm starting to think John has some sort of direct connection to the gambling gods. No matter what we do when he posts some sort of special, he wins. I learned my lesson last year with one of his bloody NBA specials when he wiped everyone out. I've held off touching any more of his "let's butcher Shari's iPad fund" tricks until now. Yet again, like sheep to the slaughter.

[biddy_24]

I never bet teasers but had to enter six [6] of those fukkers today because of the special promo ..... losing my ass too!!!!!

[shari91]

I never bet teasers but had to enter six [6] of those fukkers today because of the special promo ..... losing my ass too!!!!!

be very afraid of John... some sort of demon and should be avoided at all times

[ThaddeusB]

SBR book made out big time on this one thanks to a large number of 13-14 point dogs winning outright, and especially thanks to the Rams being one of them. I'm sure the favorites in these games were very popular picks in general and the Saints might well have been the most popular of all.

Incidentally, the original promo number of -200 is still slightly EV for the house off almost all numbers. Less EV than a -110 side, certainly, but EV none the less.

Pretty cool promo though. Hopefully we'll see more of this sort of experimental special in the future.

[yisman]

<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="TrGameEven"><td>Internet / -1</td><td align="Left"> Ticket #: 1050416
Oct 29 07:00 PM
Oct 29 07:00 PM
Oct 29 08:00 PM
</td><td>
CFB
CFB
CFB
</td><td>13pt 3 teams, SBR John special
[162] TEXAS TECH -2-110 (B+13)
[180] UCLA +17-110 (B+13)
[197] NEVADA -2-110 (B+13)
</td><td>
360.00 / 150.00
</td><td>
-360.00
</td><td>LOSE
LOSE
WIN
PEND
</td><td>10/29/2011 06:54 PM </td></tr><tr><td colspan="10" style="border-top:1px solid #CDCDCD;">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td>Internet / 0</td><td align="Left">
</td><td>DISB</td><td>Transfer from Sports to Forum
</td><td>
</td><td>-18000.00
</td><td>
</td><td>10/30/2011 10:22 AM</td></tr><tr><td colspan="10" style="border-top:1px solid #CDCDCD;">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameEven"><td>Internet / -1</td><td align="Left"> Ticket #: 1051907
Oct 30 01:00 PM
Oct 30 01:00 PM
Oct 30 04:15 PM
</td><td>
NFL
NFL
NFL
</td><td>13pt 3 teams, SBR John special
[212] CAROLINA +10-125 (B+13)
[218] NY GIANTS +3½-110 (B+13)
[226] SAN FRANCISCO +4-110 (B+13)
</td><td>
360.00 / 150.00
</td><td>
150.00
</td><td>WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
</td><td>10/30/2011 11:08 AM </td></tr><tr><td colspan="10" style="border-top:1px solid #CDCDCD;">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td>Internet / -1</td><td align="Left"> Ticket #: 1050962
Oct 30 04:15 PM
</td><td>
NFL
</td><td>STRAIGHT BET
[8801] NEW ENGLAND PK-105
</td><td>
210.00 / 200.00
</td><td>
-210.00
</td><td>LOSE
LOSE
</td><td>10/29/2011 11:51 PM </td></tr><tr><td colspan="10" style="border-top:1px solid #CDCDCD;">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameEven"><td>Internet / -1</td><td align="Left"> Ticket #: 1051910
Oct 30 01:00 PM
Oct 30 04:15 PM
Oct 30 04:15 PM
</td><td>
NFL
NFL
NFL
</td><td>13pt 3 teams, SBR John special
[212] CAROLINA +10-125 (B+13)
[224] PITTSBURGH +16-120 (B+13)
[225] TOTAL o25-110 (B+13)
(CLEVELAND vrs SAN FRANCISCO)
</td><td>
180.00 / 75.00
</td><td>
75.00
</td><td>WIN
WIN
WIN
WIN
</td><td>10/30/2011 11:09 AM </td></tr><tr><td colspan="10" style="border-top:1px solid #CDCDCD;">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td>Internet / -1</td><td align="Left"> Ticket #: 1053124
Oct 30 04:15 PM
Oct 30 08:25 PM
Oct 30 04:15 PM
</td><td>
NFL
NFL
NFL
</td><td>13pt 3 teams, SBR John special
[228] SEATTLE +14½-110 (B+13)
[230] PHILADELPHIA +10-110 (B+13)
[8231] NEW ENGLAND +10-125 (B+13)
</td><td>
240.00 / 100.00
</td><td>
-240.00
</td><td>LOSE
LOSE
PEND
WIN
</td><td>10/30/2011 04:09 PM </td></tr></tbody></table>

[Andy117]

New Orleans wiped me out.

[WeinketoWarrick]

I got my ass kicked on these things almost as bad as I did by my Saints -7 teasers in my actual accounts...brutal...

Books had to kill it this weekend.

[Yellow Snowman]

Saints killed me. What a disgraceful performance on both sides of the ball for the Aints....and my pocket is feeling it.

[andywend]

Betting a 3 team parlay and laying -240 is INSANE (especially in college but even with the NFL).

I would love to be on the other side getting +240 and needing only 1 win out of 3 to cash.

The -240 3 Team 13 point teaser is an -EV play plain and simple. However, SBRJohn's offering of New England straight up at -105 was a great deal considering they were priced around -130 at most shops.

SBRJohn, I have always wondered how stupid people can be? How many wagers did you get on Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline @ -115 when they were available @ +115 in the regular sportsbook. I guarantee you got at least a few wagers on the Pitt -115 ML.

[shari91]

Betting a 3 team parlay and laying -240 is INSANE (especially in college but even with the NFL).

I would love to be on the other side getting +240 and needing only 1 win out of 3 to cash.

The -240 3 Team 13 point teaser is an -EV play plain and simple. However, SBRJohn's offering of New England straight up at -105 was a great deal considering they were priced around -130 at most shops.

SBRJohn, I have always wondered how stupid people can be? How many wagers did you get on Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline @ -115 when they were available @ +115 in the regular sportsbook. I guarantee you got at least a few wagers on the Pitt -115 ML.

I assume most of us listened to Lou's warnings about how the price was going to change and jumped on at -200. Regardless I bet 1000pts of my freeplay and came out with 250 in this beauty of a special. Definitely didn't think this one through

[gvo]

bodog offers 13pt football teasers at -120, no thanks to -240..
somehow Dallas can't cover +16 tho?! FML

[upscope]

I'm broke....All I could do was laugh though all the way through.....made it worth it.

Thanx for the laugh SBR.....enjoy my points~

[azn624]

Lost 2000+ on this, should've just did the games I was betting on straight up, instead picked some stupid heavy favs.

[chachi]

I assume most of us listened to Lou's warnings about how the price was going to change and jumped on at -200. Regardless I bet 1000pts of my freeplay and came out with 250 in this beauty of a special. Definitely didn't think this one through

Told ya Shari

[trytrytry]

bodog offers 13pt football teasers at -120, no thanks to -240..
somehow Dallas can't cover +16 tho?! FML

thats a 4 team teaser ?? -120? or did you mean -220?

what did you mean here?>

not a 3 team and ties lose..

[SBR_John]

We took our que from 5Dimes which had a 13 point 3 team teaser at -255(ties reduce). We will look at Bogog this week and see what we can come up with.

[trytrytry]

it was an amazing offer at -200 and I think you I think I lost 1000 points or so (miami game NCAA football did not help!)..would do again.

[BigDaddy]

it was an amazing offer at -200

it is?

[trytrytry]

yes
Big Daddy at -200, a three team ties push 13 point teaser where you can choose the games NFL included is a positive situation if you had that option every day that is all you would have to do in life...

[yisman]

Agreed. -200 is very generous.

[AceKingHigh]

Let us parlay as much as we want upto 15 teams like 5Dimes have with the 10 & 13 points teasers! that would be FUN!!!

[ThaddeusB]

it was an amazing offer at -200 and I think you I think I lost 1000 points or so (miami game NCAA football did not help!)..would do again.

it is?

yes Big Daddy at -200, a three team ties push 13 point teaser where you can choose the games NFL included is a positive situation if you had that option every day that is all you would have to do in life...

Agreed. -200 is very generous.

-200 is very generous compared to -250 or -260 you'd typically see. However, that doesn't mean it is massively +EV or even +EV at all. -101 is very generous on sides but is still -EV. I guarantee if you bet every game, every week in a 3-team 13 point teaser at -200 you'd lose money.

That said, I do think it was a good idea as a promotion. It gave the players a much better than normal chance without costing SBR tons of cash.

Thaddeus

[BigDaddy]

would a 4 team 13 point ties lose teaser at -110 be a good bet?

[yisman]

-200 is very generous compared to -250 or -260 you'd typically see. However, that doesn't mean it is massively +EV or even +EV at all. -101 is very generous on sides but is still -EV. I guarantee if you bet every game, every week in a 3-team 13 point teaser at -200 you'd lose money.

Who's betting every game?

If you pick your spots with this, betting certain even spreads (considering the extra half point you get with ties winning), it is certainly +EV.

I said it's very generous because no book is going to offer even close to 13 point 3 team -200 teasers, ties win. Even SBR wasn't doing that. Before I even put my bets in, it had moved to -220 and then -240.

[ThaddeusB]

Who's betting every game? If you pick your spots with this, betting certain even spreads (considering the extra half point you get with ties winning), it is certainly +EV. I said it's very generous because no book is going to offer even close to 13 point 3 team -200 teasers, ties win. Even SBR wasn't doing that. Before I even put my bets in, it had moved to -220 and then -240.

The every game comment was in reference to the guy who said he could retire doing it... I didn't say there were no EV spots, but there aren't many, and a regular old Wong teaser is far more profitable than the very best number at +13, 3 team, -200, ties win.

I do, however, agree that is was a very generous offer compared to any other 13 point teaser out there. Nothing even remotely close to 3:1 (or 4:1) blackjack , but a good offer. And again, I think it was a good promotion, just not as good as people seem to think.

Thaddeus

[ThaddeusB]

would a 4 team 13 point ties lose teaser at -110 be a good bet?

Without looking a specific spreads, it actually appears to be a slightly better deal than 3 team, ties win, -200. It's -EV in general, but may well be +EV in spots.

Thaddeus

[yisman]

I think I could make a damn good profit if you offered me that promo each week and let me choose the games I wanted to play.

The guy that was saying he could retire doing it wasn't saying he'd be betting every game. That's suicidal. Obviously certain games would not lend themselves to this as well as other games.

[BigDaddy]

can anyone show us the math on how it is +EV

[ThaddeusB]

I think I could make a damn good profit if you offered me that promo each week and let me choose the games I wanted to play. The guy that was saying he could retire doing it wasn't saying he'd be betting every game. That's suicidal. Obviously certain games would not lend themselves to this as well as other games.

You need to hit 87.35% at -200 to break even. The overall win rate on NFL is 84.86%, college is lower. There are some issues with sample size on individual numbers, but I would consider -3 and -10 to be the best candidates. They comes it at 88.7% and 87.3% over the last 5 years., Like I said, there are sample size issues. Looking at surrounding numbers, I'd estimate the true win percentage of these best case numbers to be in the 88.2% range.

can anyone show us the math on how it is +EV

Here is the general idea of how you'd figure these things out, using the above numbers as an example.

First find the win expected win rate. With the best case numbers it is .882x.882x.882=.686.

Then find expectation by breaking it into scenarios and sum.
Win: .686 x 100: 68.6
Loss: .314 x -200: -62.8
Total: +5.8

Take profit (or loss) and divide by amount risked and that is your EV of the teaser.
5.8 / 200 = EV of +2.9%

I seriously doubt anyone is going to "get rich" betting the 2 or 3 teasers that qualify each week. For comparison a Wong/Basic strategy teaser has an EV of about 8% if you can get traditional teaser payout numbers (still available some places, but less and less shops each year).

Thaddeus

[msutter]

Lost 2000 Points on this promo. Saints and Miami ****** me

[yisman]

You need to hit 87.35% at -200 to break even.

You may 87.35% of the legs?

I would consider -10 to +3 the optimal teaser for this promo.

What I did with my bets was only bet on spreads where it was especially advantageous.