Do you have a system??

boneheaded1 · 10-25-11, 03:51 PM

I have a system that has worked well for me over the years. However this year has been a bloodbath. Thinking about shutting it down for the year.

It's a moneyline parlay system mostly. I rarely bet points because players don't care about spreads only winning.

However, NYGiants (home loss to Seattle), Ravens (@ Tenn & @ Jacksonville) Siants (@ Bucs) and Illinois (home loss to Ohio St.) have killed me this year.

Normally I only take one or two hits like that in a season and certainly not in a row.

Still hanging in there and keeping my reload record at ZERO. However, this year has been an ass kicker for my system for sure.

Also, got moved from Greek to Heritage, fewer ML bets available to use on my system. I have no problem parlaying 5; -10000 games.

If I do reload, it's going to be with 5dimes instead.

But for my system, I look at various simulation sites to determine which ones see the highest win% then out of the 30 or so games, I look them all up on various sports websites. Current record, ranking in offense (run & pass yards per game; points per game) ranking on Def (run and pass yards allowed, points allowed), Look to see if there are any shared opponents, compare game statistics of those shared opponents giving weight to home vs. away, then pick the ones I like the most.

Then I either tease the points or play the moneyline. I ain't some solid capper. I just look to see who I think will be the winner based on recent performance and shared opponents. Normally this is like a slow chug upward in my account balance but this year . . . ugh!

BIGDAY · 10-25-11, 03:56 PM

No system for MMA. Understanding matchup flaws and hoping your fighter has a good gameplan in place to exploit the opponents weakness.

Hope that makes sense.

onetrickpony · 10-25-11, 03:58 PM

oh shit i thought u was talking abt ps3 and xbox

only system is fade landers

lakerboy · 10-25-11, 04:02 PM

My system is to hit 47% and avoid big ml faves and bet mostly + line plays and survive. I dont read espn/sports sites. I avoid too much info. I try only to read the looks on players faces and see what there body language is saying. I ask my cooks at work what they are playing and i fade them consistently. I fade the public sometimes as well. I look for long standing historical situations that keep repeating themselves over time( not trends). I bet with my gut sometimes. I bet with vengeance sometimes. I don't listen to anyone else's advice.I try to not watch too many of the games i bet so i can stay sane. I watch moneyline movement more than spread movement cause it is a better indicator of the final result for me. I dont have a system though and i certainly avoid looking at stats.

pavyracer · 10-25-11, 04:04 PM

I have a system. It's called having a job and saving money instead of gambling and losing it all. You never see successful people saying they made their fortunes in gambling unless they are booking.

BIGDAY · 10-25-11, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by onetrickpony

oh shit i thought u was talking abt ps3 and xbox

only system is fade landers

Tech N9ne · 10-25-11, 04:06 PM

some good stuff so far

thanks men

Roadtrip635 · 10-25-11, 04:21 PM

Tech N9ne · 10-25-11, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by Roadtrip635

reminds me of brahma/kerry/prissy

paco · 10-25-11, 04:44 PM

I see which way SweetJones55 is moving lines.

Tech N9ne · 10-25-11, 04:46 PM

^ sweetjones gotta be hurt in right now

No NBA season possibly

paco · 10-25-11, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by Tech N9ne

^ sweetjones gotta be hurt in right now

No NBA season possibly

He moves lines in all sports.

Dexter · 10-25-11, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

My system is to hit 47% and avoid big ml faves and bet mostly + line plays and survive. I dont read espn/sports sites. I avoid too much info. I try only to read the looks on players faces and see what there body language is saying. I ask my cooks at work what they are playing and i fade them consistently. I fade the public sometimes as well. I look for long standing historical situations that keep repeating themselves over time( not trends). I bet with my gut sometimes. I bet with vengeance sometimes. I don't listen to anyone else's advice.I try to not watch too many of the games i bet so i can stay sane. I watch moneyline movement more than spread movement cause it is a better indicator of the final result for me. I dont have a system though and i certainly avoid looking at stats.

haha - i love it.....i have guys at work who are the same way. i wont blindly auto fade them, but i will keep their plays in the back of my head.

hawley · 10-25-11, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by paco

He moves lines in all sports.

He is 70% including some huuuuuuuuge wins in CFB / NFL

Remember he knows the Hurricanes better than anyone

antifoil · 10-25-11, 08:07 PM

i wait until about 5 to 10 minutes before game time to look at where the lines are at pinny, then call my local to pick off bad numbers.

Tech N9ne · 10-25-11, 08:15 PM

I've heard some guys run computer systems

Plays are filtered out and a number is determined

The right system could pay dividends if you were able to factor in injuries and team motivation