Public is 32-42 in the NFL so far this year...

Full Time Hobo · 10-17-11, 01:09 PM

They cleanup saturday and get raped sunday

MoneyLineDawg · 10-17-11, 01:34 PM

Makes sense, the tough part is figuring out when to ride the public and when to go against it....That is why I don't put too much stock in line movements/ public

You start second-guessing yourself with all of this info....If you have a lot of knowledge on teams, recent trends, and the leagues themselves just go with what you think will happen ON THE FIELD......Public percentages and line movements are just a tool to help you, not the end-all, be-all

ttrace35 · 10-17-11, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by MoneyLineDawg

Makes sense, the tough part is figuring out when to ride the public and when to go against it....That is why I don't put too much stock in line movements/ public

You start second-guessing yourself with all of this info....If you have a lot of knowledge on teams, recent trends, and the leagues themselves just go with what you think will happen ON THE FIELD......Public percentages and line movements are just a tool to help you, not the end-all, be-all

BernardMadoff · 10-17-11, 02:51 PM

Hate hearing the word public, you are the public.

CHAZ · 10-17-11, 03:05 PM

Sharps got raped this weekend according to the line movements.

"Bears stung the most. We grinded out a decent profit during the day, but then gave pretty much all of it back as everyone was on the Bears. Losing those Sunday night games are a real killer. So much more action is on them then the other games; really makes or breaks your day."
-David Mason (BetOnline)

BigDofBA · 10-17-11, 03:17 PM

Threads like this make me chuckle.

You ran "you ran your own numbers"?

I'm glad everyone here knows which side is sharp. We must have a lot of winners here.....

d2bets · 10-17-11, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by CHAZ

Sharps got raped this weekend according to the line movements.

"Bears stung the most. We grinded out a decent profit during the day, but then gave pretty much all of it back as everyone was on the Bears. Losing those Sunday night games are a real killer. So much more action is on them then the other games; really makes or breaks your day."
-David Mason (BetOnline)

Well why the heck did they set the line so darn low? -1 or -2 or whatever was nuts. And now the Bears are -1 neutral vs. Tampa. What the hell sense do these lines make? They're trying to say that Minny is better than Tampa. Come on now.

big0mar · 10-17-11, 03:35 PM

Most here do not understand the concept of market efficiency.

punkbhstl · 10-17-11, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by big0mar

Most here do not understand the concept of market efficiency.

google: thespread and see who the public is betting

big0mar · 10-17-11, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by punkbhstl

google: thespread and see who the public is betting

You are just as clueless.

Who is taking a position against the public?????

BettingWizard · 10-17-11, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Hate hearing the word public, you are the public.

so you're fading yourself then. who cares?

Ricki Roma · 10-17-11, 05:31 PM

where do these stats come from?

jjgold · 10-17-11, 05:35 PM

Hard to actually put a record on public plays
Its actually almost impossible

BigDofBA · 10-17-11, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Hard to actually put a record on public plays Its actually almost impossible

This!

That's why I laugh at threads when people think they know what is sharp and what is not. We are the public!

BettingWizard · 10-17-11, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Hard to actually put a record on public plays
Its actually almost impossible

not really, just look at the top bets on a square book like Sportsbook.com. or just ask a local bookie

d2bets · 10-17-11, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

not really, just look at the top bets on a square book like sportsbook.com. or just ask a local bookie

Yeah, but what qualifies? 32-42 means he's got only selected games. Unless there is some objective and verifiable % way of determining which game is "public enough" then it's too subjective to have any reliability.

Now if there was an objective qualification like any game with over 60% on one side as determined by sportsbook.com after kickoff, or something like that, then OK. But otherwise, if it's just picking and choosing, then it's not reliable.

loopydude11 · 10-17-11, 05:50 PM

32-42 is how many games have been played in the NFL, give or take a game

TehSharp · 10-17-11, 05:51 PM

The house always wins....unless you're me

k13 · 10-17-11, 05:57 PM

Maybe I will go into more details later.

Don't take it too literally as public can be replaced with majority, public perception, etc.

You really need to see anything to know Packers, Steelers, Texans, etc. will be "public" plays this week for example.

That does not mean sharps are on the other side as a majority play can still be a sharp depending on many factors.

These are just some vanilla numbers.

k13 · 10-19-11, 04:05 PM

Public plays for this week would be...

Carolina
San Diego
Houston
Denver
Oakland
Steelers
Dallas
Saints
Baltimore

That does not mean sharps are on the other side or can't be on the public side or whatever you want to think.

LUNT101 · 10-19-11, 04:11 PM

To see who the public is on, I use a combination of:

http://odds.sbrforum.com/#/odds/nfl/game/pointspread.html

http://www.betvega.com/consensus/nfl-consensus/

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

More times than not, these sites contradict each other, so they can only be taken with a grain of salt.

DJ Dana · 10-19-11, 07:13 PM

wow, I don't feel badly now with how I've done for the season. 6 weeks in I'm in the black 4 of those weeks and up just short of a grand.