Not too early > LSU @ BAMA : Opening Line??

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  • suicidekings
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-23-09
    • 9962

    #71
    Alabama -5.5

    Followed by a million people on here talking about value and "taking the points", and saying "No WAY LSU loses by more than 3", resulting in an LSU frenzy that will deflate the line temporarily, to be followed by Alabama money coming in throughout the week, driving the line back up to near where it opens for gameday, along with a lot of Alabama ML action from those scared to lay the points.

    Then on gameday, the Tide will win by 10+ making the whole exercise pointless. LSU enjoys a pretty big divide between them and most of their competition, however Alabama is several steps above LSU here...
    Comment
    • suicidekings
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 03-23-09
      • 9962

      #72
      Originally posted by The Seer
      November 5, 2011
      Texas A&M
      Oklahoma -7.5
      LSU
      Alabama -9
      No way should the line be this high
      South Carolina
      Arkansas -4
      No, -9 is exactly where it should be if you only consider the two teams and not the other factors related to the market itself.
      Comment
      • The Seer
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-29-07
        • 10641

        #73
        Originally posted by suicidekings
        No, -9 is exactly where it should be if you only consider the two teams and not the other factors related to the market itself.
        those comments werent mine, it was the author's when the lines were posted in June
        Comment
        • The Seer
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-29-07
          • 10641

          #74
          Originally posted by P.F.Kasooff
          Seer, dont be such a dummy Big difference in a future bet & game week line. You arent dealing with high school kids here, you have them thinking you are a god. We know better!
          do u have trouble reading, i said the linesmakers make adjustments throughout the year and you can bet these games every week all year long. I am not some god lol, i just pay attention and have been around.

          here it is currently
          2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year
          540
          LSU
          OFF
          <input name="selection[Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511MLA]" id="selection[Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511MLA]" value="Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511|MLA|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox">
          +5
          <input name="selection[Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511PSA]" id="selection[Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511PSA]" value="Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511|PSA|1|100|110|10|-110" type="checkbox">
          oOFF
          <input name="selection[Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511TLO]" id="selection[Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511TLO]" value="Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511|TLO|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox">


          Alabama
          OFF
          <input name="selection[Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511MLH]" id="selection[Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511MLH]" value="Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511|MLH|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox">
          -5
          <input name="selection[Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511PSH]" id="selection[Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511PSH]" value="Pcfoo-540-LSU-Alaba-110511|PSH|1|100|110|-10|-110" type="checkbox">
          uOFF
          Comment
          • suicidekings
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-23-09
            • 9962

            #75
            Originally posted by The Seer
            those comments werent mine, it was the author's when the lines were posted in June
            Ah. Apologies.
            Comment
            • The Seer
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 10-29-07
              • 10641

              #76
              BTW in case you are wondering what all the other Games of the year are currently, here they are, and YES you can bet on them currently as they have been adjusted week to week. They may take them down at the beginning of the week and put them back up after the games that week are played but if you click on the line you can see how they have been moved from week to week. Not every book has them but they are out there.



              NCAA Games of the Year
              10/20/2011

              <table class="data" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead> <tr> <th colspan="8" class="first">
              </th> <th class="trends" colspan="3">Betting Trends</th> </tr> <tr> <th class="first">Date/ Time</th> <th>#</th> <th>Proposition</th> <th>Money</th> <th>Line</th> <th>Total</th> <th>Status</th> <th>Score</th> <th class="trends" width="8%">Money</th> <th class="trends" width="8%">Side</th> <th class="trends" width="8%">Total</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/20/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 410 </td> <td> UCLA
              Arizona </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> +4.5/-110
              -4.5/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Closed </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 22%
              78% </td> <td> OFF </td> </tr> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/21/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 420 </td> <td> West Virginia
              Syracuse </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> -10/-110
              +10/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Closed </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 100%
              0% </td> <td> OFF </td> </tr> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/22/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 430 </td> <td> Auburn
              LSU </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> +18/-110
              -18/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Closed </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 85%
              15% </td> <td> OFF </td> </tr> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/22/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 435 </td> <td> Wisconsin
              Michigan St </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> -8.5/-110
              +8.5/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Closed </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 54%
              46% </td> <td> OFF </td> </tr> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/22/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 440 </td> <td> USC
              Notre Dame </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> +8.5/-110
              -8.5/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Closed </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 62%
              38% </td> <td> OFF </td> </tr> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/22/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 445 </td> <td> Arkansas
              Ole Miss </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> -14/-110
              +14/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Closed </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 100%
              0% </td> <td> OFF </td> </tr> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/22/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 450 </td> <td> Tennessee
              Alabama </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> +21/-110
              -21/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Closed </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 77%
              23% </td> <td> OFF </td> </tr> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/27/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 460 </td> <td> Virginia
              Miami FL </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> +14/-110
              -14/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Open </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 83%
              17% </td> <td> OFF </td> </tr> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year (Arlington TX) </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/28/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 470 </td> <td> BYU
              TCU </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> +12/-110
              -12/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Open </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 42%
              58% </td> <td> OFF </td> </tr> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year (Jacksonville FL) </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/29/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 480 </td> <td> Georgia
              Florida </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> +3.5/-110
              -3.5/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Closed </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 17%
              83% </td> <td> OFF </td> </tr> <tr class="time"> <td colspan="11"> 2011 NCAA Football Games of the Year </td> </tr> <tr class="team odd"> <td class="name"> 10/29/11
              12:00 PM </td> <td class="player"> 485 </td> <td> South Carolina
              Tennessee </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> -1/-110
              +1/-110
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> Closed </td> <td>
              </td> <td> OFF </td> <td> 54%
              46%
              Comment
              • Zuus
                SBR Rookie
                • 11-17-10
                • 26

                #77
                anyone else just think this is a no play?

                these are juggernaut teams, equally matched. Might be a good game just to pass on and look elsewhere.
                Comment
                • kickenchicken
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 09-17-10
                  • 430

                  #78
                  i think bama has a better offense and they are at home
                  Comment
                  • ZBOIZ
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 06-22-08
                    • 21464

                    #79
                    Bama has a better offense ?!?!?!?!?!?

                    Are you serious ?!??!?
                    Comment
                    • Stompin_Tom
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 12-02-10
                      • 226

                      #80
                      Best play is to not bet it at all and just enjoy watching a great football game loaded with amazing talent.
                      Comment
                      • grizzlies1
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 02-17-11
                        • 726

                        #81
                        Stanford currently -1.5 at home to Oregon!? Bearing in mind that I don't live in Vegas (or even in the USA) is there anywhere I can bet this? It might be time to remortgage the house! Stanford by 10+
                        Comment
                        • SBR_John
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 07-12-05
                          • 16471

                          #82
                          Originally posted by grizzlies1
                          Stanford currently -1.5 at home to Oregon!? Bearing in mind that I don't live in Vegas (or even in the USA) is there anywhere I can bet this? It might be time to remortgage the house! Stanford by 10+
                          I'll take Oregon...could I get +3???
                          Comment
                          • grizzlies1
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 02-17-11
                            • 726

                            #83
                            If you gave me Stanford -3 @ +100 I'd take it.
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #84
                              Originally posted by mtcook21
                              Bama best team in the country. Can beat anyone by 2 TDs except Wiscy. Only beat them by 1 TD.
                              Wiscy is NOT better than LSU (at full strength without the current suspensions). LSU and Bama are clearly the two best teams and this game will be the National Championship. IF the LSU suspensions are lifted before this game, I think line opens Alabama -3.5
                              Comment
                              • LT Profits
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-27-06
                                • 90963

                                #85
                                Originally posted by Zuus
                                anyone else just think this is a no play?

                                these are juggernaut teams, equally matched. Might be a good game just to pass on and look elsewhere.
                                Actually, that is exactly why LSU at +3.5 or more is a great play.
                                Comment
                                • ZBOIZ
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 06-22-08
                                  • 21464

                                  #86
                                  LT I personally know some of the players at LSU and one player told me this is just a 1 game suspension.
                                  Comment
                                  • SBR_John
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 07-12-05
                                    • 16471

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by grizzlies1
                                    If you gave me Stanford -3 @ +100 I'd take it.
                                    OK. I'll give you Stanford -3 +100. Now the only problem is how will you transfer your stake if you are a non Pro?
                                    Comment
                                    • stevenash
                                      Moderator
                                      • 01-17-11
                                      • 65674

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by stevenash
                                      Bama minus 4.5
                                      Game is a stone cold pick on a neutral field, give Bam 4.5 home field points.
                                      LSU at Alabama
                                      Sat 11/5 10853 LSU +4½ -110 +160
                                      8:00PM 10854 Alabama -4½ -110 -185
                                      Comment
                                      • AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-04-11
                                        • 1378

                                        #89
                                        Lsu +6 cash it!!!! Im on lsu all day!!!!!
                                        Comment
                                        • AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-04-11
                                          • 1378

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by SBR_John
                                          OK. I'll give you Stanford -3 +100. Now the only problem is how will you transfer your stake if you are a non Pro?

                                          Ill take Stanford -3 +100 !!!!
                                          Comment
                                          • AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-04-11
                                            • 1378

                                            #91
                                            Its only 1 game suspension and LSU will mop the Tide.. LSU wins by 10+
                                            Comment
                                            • stevenash
                                              Moderator
                                              • 01-17-11
                                              • 65674

                                              #92
                                              Down to 4 now

                                              LSU at Alabama
                                              Sat 11/5 10853 LSU +4 -110 +160
                                              8:00PM 10854 Alabama -4 -110 -185
                                              Comment
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