Should I Hedge Out of My Survivor Pool Next Week?

[Romanov]

The pot is $5480. I have 1 $20 entry. There are only 25-30 people left, even fewer if the packers lose tonight.

At what point do I start to hedge? That is like a 274-1 bet. How should I hedge?

Should I bet on the popular teams I am not on next week, and against the team I am on?

This is all probably too soon but since the field is only about 10% of what it started at, I'm starting to get antsy.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Way to soon to consider a hedge. When down to just a hand full think about it

[seaborneq]

Too many people left, a pool I am in the giants were taken by 61% of the remaining entries. A couple of more weeks like that and you should win without a hedge.

[hornsrgrt]

Too many people left, a pool I am in the giants were taken by 61% of the remaining entries. A couple of more weeks like that and you should win without a hedge.

which pool?

[VegasInsider]

Who have you used so far?

[BettingWizard]

too early

[Romanov]

Who have you used so far?

Houston, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Tampa Bay and Detroit

I'm going to go with the Packers this weekend (probably). The only other team I would consider would be the bengals


On hedging:

I am thinking about putting $200 on each of the popular ML's besides the my team so if the other popular teams (my competitors) lose, I gain EV, and if they win I earn money.

Thoughts?

[seaborneq]

Are you still in the pool?

[Regul8er]

Mine has a pot of $170,500 (1,705 entrants at $100 a pop).

We are down to 224.....and I am still alive and kicking. Seaborneq...I hear you on the Giants a few weeks ago.....66% of the entrants has them in my pool.

I have taken Houston, NY Jets, San Diego, Tampa Bay, New England and Green Bay.
I don't want to get too cute this weekend, and will probably just take New Orleans (lookin ahead there schedule is pretty tough, not many spots I will be comfortable taking them). I was thinking about getting cute with Oakland or Cleveland....but in these pools just survive, and worry about 50/50 or 60/40 games down the road.

[darrell74]

Stressing already?

Gotta be prepared to take this thing into mid December.

[Regul8er]

It appears Romanov is stressing a bit, but I'm pretty cool. I've done a lot of work with my preparation, and feel I'm in in pretty good shape.

I was planning on taking Oakland either Week 6 vs Cleveland, Week 7 vs KC or Week 9 vs Denver (all at home). With Campbell getting hurt, I'm not prepared to lean on a QB who hasn't played an NFL game all year, or doesnt know the playbook. With San Francisco and Cincinnati showing me some things, I should be able to replace Oakland with one of these teams in a good spot down the line.

[seaborneq]

which pool?

Real time sports. King of the mountain.

[EmpireMaker]

much too soon