NFL Week 5 - Is there an opportunity here?

[TMoney33]

So here's the deal - One book has NYJ +9(-123), and another has NE -7(-125). Is this a good opportunity? It sure seems like it, but maybe I'm missing something.

Here's what I came up with for potential outcome risking $100 on both sides. I don't know if it would be better to put a different amount on either side.

NE Wins by 10 or more
+$80 on NE, -$100 on NYJ = -$20

NE Wins by 9
+$80 on NE, Push on NYJ = +$80

NE Wins by 8
+$80 on NE, +$81.30 on NYJ = +$161.30

NE Wins by 7
Push on NE, +$81.30 on NYJ = +$81.30

NE Wins by 6 or less
-$100 on NE, +$81.30 on NYJ = -$18.70

What do you think?

[nikossf]

looks like your really only winning if pats win between four to six pts...otherwise u lose about twenty...so the risk vs reward is definitly there...but why not just place several twenty dollar plays on the outcome...

[nikossf]

sorry meant to say between seven and nine pts...

[TMoney33]

Yeah, the payoff would only come at NE winning by 7, 8, or 9, but that seems like a pretty good possibility. I wasn't sure if there was a formula to figure out the probability of this, or one to figure out optimal bet amounts.

[TMoney33]

The one line finally came down to 7.5, so whatever opportunity was there is gone.

I would still like to know what others think about this bet. Does it make sense to shoot for NE winning by exactly 7,8, or 9 when the reward is so high compared to the risk?

[the10man]

no your just gonna end up losing juice. you should only try this on 3 or 7, win by 8 is a rare outcome

[TMoney33]

no your just gonna end up losing juice. you should only try this on 3 or 7, win by 8 is a rare outcome

Thanks for the input. I wasn't sure if this was worthwhile or not.