A bet I made with a friend today...

[AgainstAllOdds]

Alright so a friend said he was gonna bet the cubs tonight. I said too much chalk to be laying. Taking big favs like that doesnt pay off. He respondes with they hit at least 50-60 percent of the time. One thing led to another and I ended up betting him $100 he couldnt hit 6 out of 10 -200 plays.

His first game hes betting on is the cubs.


Anything think this is a decent wager on my part?

[pokernut9999]

No


I will take that bet from you also.

[diogee]

Doesn't sound like a good wager to me...might get a push at best. It is a small play amount so anything is possible.

[AgainstAllOdds]

Maybe Ganch or a math guy can break down the math and we can see how much of a chance this has of hitting...

[pico]

it is bad karma to book your buddies bet. rooting against your friend is no fun. i would always lay it off somewhere so i can be happy when they win also.

[gordon gekko]

AAO I will take that bet with you let's make it $500.

[durito]

.

[AgainstAllOdds]

Durito...why do you have to be a fuking jerkoff constantly....

[durito]

Assuming a -200/160 lineset and no advantage, should hit 6 or more out 10 -200's 71.58% of the time

Assuming -200 no vig bet, he should hit 6 or more out of 10, 79.36% of the time.

[pokernut9999]

Damn it Durito , why you have to ruin our chance to get a bet in with him.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Its a bad bet on your part. If you had said 7 of 10 instead, you'd have a +EV bet. Favorites of -200 should have a 66.67% of winning each game...

[AgainstAllOdds]

Okay so I made a bad bet...shame on me. It was kinda in the heat of the moment. But hopefully he falls under that 20% and I win this time.

[durito]

Durito...why do you have to be a fuking jerkoff constantly....

If you want to win at gambling i suggest learning what 2/3 is. No offense personally.

[pokernut9999]

Lets see , your bookie wants you to post up now

So you are going to book your friends bets

[AgainstAllOdds]

Lets see , your bookie wants you to post up now

So you are going to book your friends bets

Who said anything about booking my friends' bets?

[Marigold HD]

Its a bad bet on your part. If you had said 7 of 10 instead, you'd have a +EV bet. Favorites of -200 should have a 66.67% of winning each game...

7-10 would be fair