The Sharper Play - Yanks/Tigers Over or Brewers/D-Backs u7?

Thurgood · 10-04-11, 01:07 AM

My bad I meant u9

Thurgood · 10-04-11, 02:17 AM

Let's change it up since the Yanks/Tigers line is not out yet.

PHIL @ STL o7 or MIL @ ARZ u9?

I'm liking the Cards game o7 more and more because this postseason seems all about overs.

Machine Choice · 10-04-11, 02:19 AM

The problem with the over in St Louis is that Holliday is not playing. Mil/Ariz under 9 seems like a lock. My simulations show 6 total runs in 1,000 trials

Machine Choice · 10-04-11, 02:20 AM

But I'm waiting to take Detroit. 5dimes has Detroit at -115 but Bookmaker hasn't posted yet

Thurgood · 10-04-11, 02:31 AM

Why Detroit? I certainly respect your capping abilities but a lot of people on here think AJ will either get yanked early or will for some strange reason have a good game.

Machine Choice · 10-04-11, 02:38 AM

Originally posted by Thurgood

Why Detroit? I certainly respect your capping abilities but a lot of people on here think AJ will either get yanked early or will for some strange reason have a good game.

During the month of September Detroit averaged almost 8 runs per game at home. I don't care if Burnett is pitching or Nolan Ryan comes out of retirement, Detroit is the play. Plus I modeled this game with Burnett being yanked after giving up 6 runs (seems a reasonable worst case scenario) and Detroit still wins the game by 7 runs...Yanks haven't been hitting well on the road in the last month.