Need help with my suicide pick this week!

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  • playersonly69
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-04-08
    • 12827

    #1
    Need help with my suicide pick this week!
    First of all, I am actually in 2 leagues. One is a $25 league and the other is a $100 league. Both are rebuy leagues which allow one to rebuy for $25 or $100 if your team within the first first 6 weeks.


    Because of the rebuy feature, this creates even more strategy is involved. The $100 league had 110 entries and I believe that around 40 people have rebought at least once. The $25 league had 220 entries and about 60 of those rebought and some just dropped out.


    My thoughts were to try and save easy teams such as Patriots, Baltimore, Green Bay and the Saints until the end if possible. Apparently others are doing the same though. I also am planning on using ALL 2 of my rebuys in the $25 league if needed and I have already used 1 rebuy in the $100 league. I dont actually want to spend another $100, but I will if needed. I actually already paid $75 for the $25 league since i plan on taking some dogs in week 5 or 6 or possibly this week.


    So here is who I have taken in the $25 league thus farr and these teams are of course off limits (Not sure that I would want these teams again anyway, hence why I took them before)

    Week 1 San Francisco
    Week 2 Detroit
    Week 3 Tennessee


    These are my picks from the $100 league

    Week 1 Denver
    Week 2 Detroit
    Week 3 Tennessee

    By the way, I was shocked that NO ONE in the $100 league took NE as a pick last week. I was hoping that the pool would increase a few thousand with guys losing with NE. But most players are saving the big teams for last.




    Now I have mapped out the entire season. I might even share that here in another post who are possible picks in other weeks, but it would take me about 15 minutes to even post it. If you want to see it, then send me 25 points and I will post that. Keep in mind that we can rebuy up until week 7. So really I need to take teams in at least the $25 league that I would NEVER take again after week 6. I have 2 rebuys in my pocket for that league and one more rebuy for the $100 league.

    So who should I take this week? Here are my thoughts. ,

    1. I am saving Dallas until later in the season.
    2. Saints and Eagles should be saved as well.
    3. Washington could easily be a pick.
    4. I could waste a pick on Cleveland since I could probably never use them again.
    5. Buffalo could be a good pick since I couldnt use them the next 2 weeks and probably not again until at least week 15.
    6. Minnesota- May save until next week at Arizona if win this week, otherwise cant really use the rest of the year
    7. Bears-Might save until week 6 if used up other rebuys. Otherwise they could be taken in week 13
    8. Saving Texans for later
    9. Saving Atlanta until week 6 possibly
    10. Tampa Bay- probably best pick of the week. But I am betting BIG MONEY on Indy this week. One of the only times to take them all season except maybe next week which is what I was sort of planning on doing.

    So who should I take this week. I dont have to take the same teams in both leagues. If I wanted to take a chance, then I would go ahead and use up Cleveland, KC or Arizona or Seattle.
  • Soxsfan9
    SBR MVP
    • 11-30-08
    • 3705

    #2
    Based on what you said I would take either San Diego or Arizona
    Comment
    • Al Masters
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 04-29-06
      • 6940

      #3
      Number 3 will be your downfall if you go that route.
      Comment
      • playersonly69
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-04-08
        • 12827

        #4
        Washington wouldnt exactly be a downfall at all. I could always rebuy and play again next week. I mean, how many other weeks of the season could you possibly use Washington?
        Comment
        • playersonly69
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-04-08
          • 12827

          #5
          Ok, I have made up mind.

          I am taking Washington this week in the $100 league. I am taking Cleveland in the $25 league.
          Comment
          • Al Masters
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 04-29-06
            • 6940

            #6
            Originally posted by playersonly69
            Ok, I have made up mind.

            I am taking Washington this week in the $100 league. I am taking Cleveland in the $25 league.

            I'm all over the Rams, If i don't win i hope you do.
            Comment
            • playersonly69
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-04-08
              • 12827

              #7
              Thats Ok, I dont care too much if I win. It would save me $100 from a rebuy, but I am glad just to save the big teams until later
              Comment
              • thezbar
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-29-06
                • 6422

                #8
                I'm using Cleveland and Tampa bay this week. No rebuys, five dime pot, sixty players left.
                Comment
                • Holtgetsback
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-04-10
                  • 4655

                  #9
                  id use minny over washington
                  Comment
                  • playersonly69
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-04-08
                    • 12827

                    #10
                    Well on to week 5. I still have 1 rebuy left in both leagues. I have sort of mapped out the entire season. Now of course this can change due to injuries, but I have to have a plan.

                    Week 5 Some underdog pick
                    Week 6 Depends on week 5 (maybe Atlanta or the Jets for sure if I lose this week)
                    Week 7 New Orleans
                    week 8 Giants
                    Week 9 Houston
                    Week 10 San Diego
                    Week 11 Green bay
                    Week 12 Dallas
                    Week 13 New England
                    Week 14 Pitt
                    Week 15 Atlanta, Buff or Bears
                    Week 16 baltimore (hate to wait this long on this great team, but I might need an easy win here)
                    Week 17 Jets or Atlanta



                    Now I could take the Giants this week. If I do that then I would take Baltimore in week 8. But in the $25 league, I am definitely taking some usual dog and should do it in the $100 league. The reason to take the Giants is that you can really only take them in either week 5 or week 8.

                    For this week, I am considering taking any of these teams. Minnesota, Arizona, Jacksonville, Tampa bay, or Philly. Which one of these previous teams do you like to win this week? If I lose then I will just use my last rebuy. Only 2 more weeks to rebuy anyway/


                    Here are the teams that I have used thus far:

                    $25 league San Fran, Detroit, Tennessee, Cleveland
                    $100 league Denver, Detroit, Tennessee, Washington
                    Comment
                    • TheCentaur
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 06-28-11
                      • 8108

                      #11
                      In those suicide pools, if you know a lot of people are picking a particular team is a contrarian pick a profitable strategy? For example I know a lot of people are picking Giants this week, but I think I want New England, even though they will bigger favs against other teams later on.
                      Comment
                      • playersonly69
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 01-04-08
                        • 12827

                        #12
                        Alot of people in my $100 pool took Kansas City Chiefs last week. Not sure what they saw, but they went with the Chiefs. Of course they did that since they could always rebuy again.


                        I really think that I am going with Jacksonville or Minnesota this week. This way I can use the Giants in week 8
                        Comment
                        • LT Profits
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-27-06
                          • 90963

                          #13
                          Giants this week. Then again, I haven't looked at Week 8.
                          Comment
                          • playersonly69
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-04-08
                            • 12827

                            #14
                            Giants is the ONLY PICK for leagues that dont have a rebuy. But I plan on using both rebuys if neccessary and only have 2 more weeks to use that option.


                            Week 5 Minnesota in the $100 league and Jacksonville in the $25 league
                            Week 6 Depends on week 5, but if Minnesota or jacksonville lose, then I will take Jets. If both win, then I will take Oakland
                            Week 7 New Orleans
                            week 8 Giants
                            Week 9 Houston
                            Week 10 San Diego
                            Week 11 Green bay
                            Week 12 Dallas
                            Week 13 New England
                            Week 14 Pitt
                            Week 15 Atlanta, Buff or Bears
                            Week 16 baltimore (hate to wait this long on this great team, but I might need an easy win here)
                            Week 17 Jets or Atlanta
                            Comment
                            • Iced
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-04-11
                              • 1614

                              #15
                              No rebuys after week five and you can only use each team once. My outlook for the future is kinda broad, but I narrowed it down somewhat.

                              1 - Houston Texans
                              2 - New York Jets
                              3 - San Diego Chargers
                              4 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
                              5 - New York Giants
                              6 - San Francisco at Detroit ///// St. Louis at Green Bay ///// Carolina at Atlanta ///// Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
                              7 - Indianapolis at New Orleans
                              8 - Arizona at Baltimore ///// Indianapolis at Tennessee
                              9 - Atlanta at Indianapolis ///// Seattle at Dallas
                              10 - Arizona at Philadelphia ///// Pittsburgh at Cincinnati ///// Baltimore at Seattle ///// Minnesota at Green Bay
                              11 - Carolina at Detroit ///// Cincinnati at Baltimore ///// Kansas City at New England
                              12 - Miami at Dallas ///// San Francisco at Baltimore ///// Minnesota at Atlanta
                              13 - Philadelphia at Seattle ///// Cincinnati at Pittsburgh ///// Kansas City at Chicago ///// Indianapolis at New England
                              14 - Cleveland at Pittsburgh ///// New England at Washington ///// Indianapolis at Baltimore ///// Philadelphia at Miami ///// Minnesota at Detroit
                              15 - Jacksonville at Atlanta ///// Seattle at Chicago
                              16 - St. Louis at Pittsburgh ///// Cleveland at Baltimore ///// Chicago at Green Bay
                              17 - Washington at Philadelphia ///// Indianapolis at Jacksonville ///// Seattle at Arizona
                              Comment
                              • playersonly69
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-04-08
                                • 12827

                                #16
                                Why not just take some other team this week like Minnesota like i am doing. You can rebuy if you lose, then you will have the Giants for week 8.

                                I mean you are in a win-win situation by taking Minnesota.
                                Comment
                                • Iced
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-04-11
                                  • 1614

                                  #17
                                  No rebuys after week five, so I can't rebuy if I lose in week five.
                                  Comment
                                  • playersonly69
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-04-08
                                    • 12827

                                    #18
                                    In that case, then it would be no rebuys after week 4
                                    Comment
                                    • Iced
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-04-11
                                      • 1614

                                      #19
                                      Lol, nope, because you can still rebuy after week four. It's after week four right now and you can still rebuy.
                                      Comment
                                      • LT Profits
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-27-06
                                        • 90963

                                        #20
                                        If you can rebuy, why not take a small live dog this week and then start playing "seriously" next week when there are no more rebuys? Small live dogs are Kansas City and Cincinnati (looks like Benson is playing). Or if you want a bigger dog for higher risk/reward in case other guys take the smaller dogs and they lose, you can take a pop shot with either Carolina or Chicago.
                                        Comment
                                        • stevek173
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 03-29-08
                                          • 27598

                                          #21
                                          Giants look like the obvious pick this week, gl.
                                          Comment
                                          • playersonly69
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-04-08
                                            • 12827

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                                            If you can rebuy, why not take a small live dog this week and then start playing "seriously" next week when there are no more rebuys? Small live dogs are Kansas City and Cincinnati (looks like Benson is playing). Or if you want a bigger dog for higher risk/reward in case other guys take the smaller dogs and they lose, you can take a pop shot with either Carolina or Chicago.


                                            Well I have changed my mind again. I am taking Minnesota in the $100 league and Jacksonville in the $25 league
                                            Comment
                                            • LT Profits
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-27-06
                                              • 90963

                                              #23
                                              I disagree with Jags but good luck.
                                              Comment
                                              • playersonly69
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-04-08
                                                • 12827

                                                #24
                                                I went with your advice LT and the fact that the line changed for some reason on that game and made the Jags a dog. I never really liked them too much anyway, so it was an easy switch.

                                                I changed my mind and decided to just go with Minnesota in both leagues today. For some reason the line has made Jacksonville an underdog now. Letting it ride with Minnesota. I really hope to win today, then I can take a team like Cleveland next week or some other shit team since it is the last week to rebuy and I still have 1 left in both leagues.

                                                If Minny loses, then I will taking the Jets next week
                                                Comment
                                                • playersonly69
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-04-08
                                                  • 12827

                                                  #25
                                                  AND BINGO WAS HIS NAME!!!


                                                  I won in both leagues and ALOT Of people lost this week and will have to rebuy. Next week, I am taking some shit team
                                                  Comment
                                                  • playersonly69
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-04-08
                                                    • 12827

                                                    #26
                                                    This is the last week to rebuy in both leagues. I do still have a rebuy left in both leagues.

                                                    Here is who I have taken thus far in the $100 league

                                                    1. Denver
                                                    2. Detroit
                                                    3. Tennessee
                                                    4. Washington
                                                    5. Minnesota



                                                    Here is who I have taken in the $25 league

                                                    1. San Fran
                                                    2. Detroit
                                                    3. Tennessee
                                                    4. Cleveland
                                                    5. Minnesota


                                                    OK so this the last week to rebuy and thus I need to take some team that I wont use for the rest of the season. Those choices are Cinncinnati, Indianapolis, Oakland or Carolina. I could take Jacksonville or St Louis, but that seems like a waste of money. I dont have to spend the extra $125 and add to the pool. The good news is that I have EVERY SINGLE top team in the NFL still to choose from starting next week.


                                                    Who should I take? I am thinking about just going with Oakland. Cincinnati is a great pick too but they play St Louis and Arizona in week 15 and week 16 if I need to take Cincy at that time. There really is not other time of the year to take Oakland. Who do you guys think?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Inkwell77
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-03-11
                                                      • 3227

                                                      #27
                                                      Take Jacksonville or Kansas City. Two teams you won't be able to pick the rest of the year and have decent odds.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • LT Profits
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 10-27-06
                                                        • 90963

                                                        #28
                                                        Tough choice between Oakland and Carolina among the non-obvious teams. Depends on your goal, Oakland seems "safer" because they are favored but Carolina can offer better risk/reward. While I am thinking out loud, I would go with Oakland with two "sure" things in Green Bay and Pittsburgh this week, meaning there may be a lot of winners and this is not a good week to play a live dog.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • playersonly69
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-04-08
                                                          • 12827

                                                          #29
                                                          I went with Oakland in both leagues.


                                                          I actually wouldnt mind losing this pick. Alot of players wont be able to rebuy and thus the pool will get smaller. I do still have 1 rebuy in each league
                                                          Comment
                                                          • playersonly69
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-04-08
                                                            • 12827

                                                            #30
                                                            Well this past week sucked!! Almost everyone won in my $100 league except for 3 people. And quite a few guys teams like the Eagles and Atlanta. The 3 guys that lost rebought for the final time.


                                                            Now NO ONE get anymore rebuys. The pool is over $20,000 and I have ALL of the good teams left.


                                                            For this week in both pools I am taking


                                                            NEW ORLEANS



                                                            Here again is my projected schedule for the rest of the contest. I may have to change it though depending on injuries and such

                                                            Week 7 New Orleans
                                                            week 8 Giants
                                                            Week 9 Houston
                                                            Week 10 San Diego
                                                            Week 11 Green bay
                                                            Week 12 Dallas
                                                            Week 13 New England
                                                            Week 14 Pitt
                                                            Week 15 Atlanta, Buff or Bears, Cincy or Arizona
                                                            Week 16 baltimore (hate to wait this long on this great team, but I might need an easy win here)
                                                            Week 17 Jets, Atlanta, Bears
                                                            Comment
                                                            • playersonly69
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-04-08
                                                              • 12827

                                                              #31
                                                              Well I picked up the win last week, so did 95% of the remaining field. A few guys actually lost with Oakland. I am still alive in both leagues. Important to note is that in the $100 league, I actually still have San Francisco available. The pool in the $100 league is $17200, so I really want to win that shit.

                                                              I really dont want to use San Francisco since I feel that they are way overated, but this week would be one of the only weeks remaining to be able use them. Here are my potential picks for this week.


                                                              -Houston Texas (would like to save them for later)
                                                              -Baltimore Ravens (need to save Balt as well)
                                                              -Giants (This will be the last week of the season to take the Giants, therefore I really want to take the Giants)
                                                              -Buffalo (Would be good to save them until week 15-17 if possible)
                                                              -San Fran (Personally I cant trust them I dont think, but this would be the last week of the season to take them)
                                                              -San Diego (bad weekend to take them)


                                                              So from what I said above, I was thinking about the Giants or San Fran. I could take San Fran in the $100 league and the Giants in the $25 league too. What should I do guys? If i mange this win this contest then I will have a huge contest for the posters
                                                              Comment
                                                              • playersonly69
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-04-08
                                                                • 12827

                                                                #32
                                                                Changed my mind just a bit. I will take San Fran in the $100 league and Giants in the $25 league. I actually may need the Giants in week 15 so I need to save them. I am real worried about San Fran winning this game, but i have to gamble and keep all of my good teams until later
                                                                Comment
                                                                • seaborneq
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 09-08-06
                                                                  • 22556

                                                                  #33
                                                                  The giants tools out a bunch of folks a few weeks ago at home against seattle. Watch them.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • thezbar
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 08-29-06
                                                                    • 6422

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by seaborneq
                                                                    The giants tools out a bunch of folks a few weeks ago at home against seattle. Watch them.
                                                                    They sure did
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • playersonly69
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-04-08
                                                                      • 12827

                                                                      #35
                                                                      In the $100 league, we still have 62 players left. And in the $25 league I believe that we still have 151, but I need to check on it later
                                                                      Comment
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