texas - 177

[JMobile]

I don't do home runline bets unless it's a total stud pitcher facing a total scrub pitcher (like verlander facing one of the meatball throwers on baltimore)



I think Texas has about a 66-75% chance of winning this game, which is why I love this bet

Then the value on Verlander vs a meatball from O's would be -220 (average) for the Tigers mL. Thus also making the run line at -150. If the value was less than that, than we would all be rich.
Hey, you said that the offense for the Rangers is way better. Now you're making it sound like it's gonna be a 5-4, 3-2,6-5 game.
Come on man, don't be afraid of your golden brass thread.

[SportsMushroom]

@ thinking one style of betting is inherently better than another it's about making smart plays, doesn't matter if you play -500 favorites or +500 underdogs as long as you win at a higher rate than your line projects you to win

you have already proven to this forum that betting juice is killer for your bankroll




books always undervalue the underdog and overvalue the favorite, because the bookies know the public loves playing the favorite and they offer worse odds on it, so thinking you can find value in favorites is counter intuitive

tell me brahma, how did you calculate that texas has a 66-75% chance of winning? how did you calculate that the actual odds should be -270?

you dont seem to actually be using mathematics, you are just pulling those numbers out of your ass, but please, feel free to prove me wrong

[robertg]

and by the way i don't think baseball teams get "tired" especially after a day off. these are professional athletes that spend about 5 minutes a game exerting effort and the rest of the game either standing in the field or sitting in the dugout.

thats an absurd statement. Every player in baseball is worn out after 162 game season, and certainly the mental fatigue would be more extreme for TB who has
been under the gun for the last 30 days.

[brahmabull117]

you have already proven to this forum that betting juice is killer for your bankroll

I just had a mediocre september - truth be told I still hit around 50% (when you convert my juice betting to spread betting) but my style of betting doesn't work in september because so many teams have big leads and just cruise to easy division wins



next year I'm just gonna kill it in april - august and avoid betting baseball in september all together

[jarvol]

Yeah big faves did really well in April and May and June.....

[brahmabull117]

Yeah big faves did really well in April and May and June.....

it's not about randomly betting big faves, when the fukk did I ever do that?? It's about betting good teams on hot streaks facing opponents that they have a history of dominating



in the month of april and may, the philadelphia phillies went 26-10 against teams under .500

[jarvol]

Looks like it is already time to bump this thread.

[birdmanweezy]

way to go brahma you are so good

[neverstoppers23]

**** i was going back and fourth on this game, if i knew you picked texas i would have picked the rays, and it looks like rays got game 1 in the books.

[Nats' Fan]

[Mikail]

I got suckered into taking Texas. Rangers kool aid souring in my stomach.

[Br0nxer]

fukkin brock landers JR over here

not only are you not a professional gambler

your a fukkin autofade

i believe i called you out months ago saying over the course of a yr you couldnt even win 45%

45% was generous. you are about a 30% winner

by the by. im on the rays ML and RL

[jarvol]

C'mon Bronxer. He is 89-2 unposted. He only loses when he posts.

[Br0nxer]

C'mon Bronxer. He is 89-2 unposted. He only loses when he posts.

[DrStale]

Crushed another one brahmabroke

[Richkas]

Brahma Landers

[downsouth]

Good start Brahma.

[tin8shusd]

Unfortunately that rookie is Matt Moore, an absolute stud. Looked at this line 3 minutes after the game started and was immediately upset I didn't get the value on the dog here.

[Footballtime]

6-0 TB Brah........................ Low line maybe to reel the suckers in????????? Have you seen this lefty Matt Moore ever throw a ball??? Next time you see him pitch think twice about it!

[crustyme]

phillies -235 loser
phils -240 loser
white sox -155 loser
cardinals -150 loser
phillies -230 loser
brewers -177 loser
yanks -178 loser
brewers -182 loser
texas -177 loooooser (?)

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.




<FB:LIKE width="400" href="http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/alberteins133991.html" layout="standard" show_faces="false"></FB:LIKE>

[face]

learn, dude.

[JMobile]

Brahmahbullshit will spend his whole life as a virgin.
This guy is bad luck! This guy sucks penis.

[Nats' Fan]

Betcha he'll be on Stanford, tomorrow night..

[JMobile]

Betcha he'll be on Stanford, tomorrow night..

He already is.....

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1297279-3-plays-weekend-college-football.html

This guy sucks hairy penises.

[Nats' Fan]

He already is.....

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1297279-3-plays-weekend-college-football.html

This guy sucks hairy penises.

I knew it.

[teaserpleaser]

Lolz

[Nats' Fan]

Guy never met a favorite he didn't love..

[JMobile]

So if this play loses are you going to completely abandon this thread no matter how many times it gets bumped?

Good thinking!

Brahmah, check in pal! We are waiting.
Give us the next play for tonight! We are dying!

[spankie]

What a steal.

[TO9]

damn I wish I got in here before the rays started winning... I cant f'ing believe you said Kyle Lohse>>>>>>Matt Moore... Not one got damn person who knows anything about baseball would even consider writing that. Holy f'in crap you are so square it's crazy.

Do yourself a favor and google Matt Moore... #1 prospect in baseball, a lot of scouts say best pitching prospect in a decade+

[GimpedMaster]

There's no sharp plays

There's winning plays and there's losing plays, end of story

While I agree with you about this credence, I do think you may have missed some of the background storylines occuring here.

Longorias Walk Off Home Run was the first of it's kind that has sent a team to the post season since Bobby Fukkin Thompsons 'Shot Heard Round the World', and if you don't anticipate a wave of emotional and psychological momentum from that moment you were selling the Rays short. And the fact that Moore, while a rookie, could find a groove and completely dominate under the right circumstances.

I only wish I had loaded up on the TB ML instead of the Runline, but oh well, I'll take what I can get!

[phillybadboy]

u r not that bad though

[BettingWizard]

-270

[Mikail]

wish I had seen this thread an 2 hours ago.

[ferndog]

Texas=toast